Signal Detail

Кофе

AI-ответ

Кофе (KC) 30-day outlook: Рост. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: El Nino: drought risk in tropical producing regions. Quant 7d. Confidence 82%. (As of 2026-08-14)

KC
РостADJUST
Текущая цена
$312.00
-6.33%
Консенсус
74%
Уверенность
82%
Уверенность решения82%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
15.08.2026, 07:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 29.81%

Кофе сейчас выглядит скорее бычьим.

Сначала проверьте доказательства, затем выборочно следуйте бычьему сценарию.

Summary

Простое объяснение сигнала

Сначала прочитайте направление, доказательства и риск, а потом решайте, как исполнять.

Быстрый вывод

Кофе сейчас выглядит скорее бычьим. Сначала проверьте доказательства, затем выборочно следуйте бычьему сценарию.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
15.08.2026, 07:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 29.81%
Evidence basis
Предложение
[Supply Crew / KC] El Nino: drought risk in tropical producing regions. Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+29.8%), supply may be tightening. Approaching tight-supply period next month for KC. High volatility (47%): potential supply-chain disruption
Спрос
[Demand Crew / KC] Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Elevated sugar prices reduce sweetened beverage competition for coffee. Quant 7d: bullish (+29.8%), consistent with demand strength
Макро
[Macro Crew / KC] HIGH volatility regime (47%): elevated uncertainty, wider ranges expected. Broad commodity trend bullish: 8/11 above SMA200 (73%). Broad momentum: 8 golden crosses across commodities. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bullish (+29.8%), macro alignment
Почему такой вывод
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Почему ждать может быть лучше
i

Even on a bullish call, remaining risks mean waiting for confirmation can still be cleaner than chasing.

Что смотреть дальше
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Базовый сценарий

Кофе сейчас выглядит скорее бычьим.

Риск-контроль
Сейчас значимых разногласий нет.
KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 14 active signals.
Chart

Рыночный график

График служит только визуальной опорой; реальный вывод формируется из доказательств и debate ниже.

Данные с задержкой. Сверяйте решение с доказательствами и scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Сравните 7D, 14D и 30D в одной структуре.

7d
$405.02
+29.81%
$383.63 ~ $425.94
14d
$435.64
+39.63%
$414.63 ~ $456.02
30d
$451.47
+44.70%
$429.69 ~ $472.88
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Здесь система подтверждает, корректирует или переворачивает quant base case.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Рост
Consensus
74%
Score
+0.913
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

В кризисе simulation становится дополнительным уровнем решения.

Run
swarm_20260815_070424_kc
Direction
Рост
Confidence
92%

KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 14 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (2개)다수 지역 홍수 (2개)폭염 경고
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for KC

KC
KC
KC
KC
54%
Hit rate
AI Debate

AI Мульти-модель

Перекрёстная проверка независимыми AI

Вердикт AI

Бычий

Уверен.

57%

Согласие

73%

Agents

12/12

Голосование

Бычий
73%
Нейтр.
15%
Медвежий
12%

Ключ. факторы

  • 1Enso El Nino Tropical
  • 2Approaching Tight Supply
  • 3Brazil Vietnam Flowering Risk
  • 4Tropical Drought Risk
  • 5Approaching Tight Supply Window

Осн. риски

  • !Quant 7d Forecast Magnitude Implausible For Physical Commodity
  • !High Volatility Could Reverse As Easily As Extend
  • !Missing Crop And Inventory Evidence
  • !High Volatility Forecast Error

Анализ по группам

Предлож.sonnet-4.6

El Nino remains a legitimate structural bullish driver for KC — it tends to bring drought stress to Vietnam/Indonesia Robusta regions and irregular flowering conditions in Brazil's Arabica belt, both...

Предлож.gpt-5.4

Supply conditions lean bullish because drought risk in tropical producing regions coincides with an approaching tight-supply period, while the quant forecast signals substantial near-term upside.

Макроsonnet-4.6

Macro backdrop (broad commodity uptrend, 8 golden crosses, extreme crisis-driven flight to real assets) supports a bullish stance on coffee as part of a wider commodity complex re-rating, and...

Макроgpt-5.4

Broad commodity participation and widespread golden crosses support continued upside in KC, while the Quant forecast confirms strong momentum across multiple horizons.

Правила vs AIagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

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Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-08-15$364.86$344.55$385.51
2026-08-16$370.78$350.60$390.94
2026-08-17$383.86$362.36$405.13
2026-08-18$389.57$367.93$410.24
2026-08-19$395.81$377.21$414.71
2026-08-20$400.63$380.50$419.86
2026-08-21$405.02$383.63$425.94
2026-08-22$404.71$382.40$422.90
2026-08-23$409.69$389.89$429.86
2026-08-24$421.56$399.55$442.97
2026-08-25$425.79$405.22$446.56
2026-08-26$430.34$408.54$450.30
2026-08-27$433.28$411.99$453.01
2026-08-28$435.64$414.63$456.02
E-E-A-T

Источники данных

Методология: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Обновлено:

CropCast v2.0 — ИИ-движок прогнозов цен на сырьё