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한눈에 보는 판단
방향·근거·리스크를 먼저 읽고 실행 여부를 판단합니다.
커피은 현재 하락 쪽 판단이 우세합니다. 추격보다 방어적으로 접근하거나 더 나은 가격을 기다리는 편이 낫습니다.
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핵심 근거가 아직 구조화되지 않았습니다. 기본 시나리오와 confidence를 먼저 참고하세요.
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추격보다 방어적으로 접근하거나 더 나은 가격을 기다리는 편이 낫습니다.
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추가 데이터 업데이트와 다음 debate refresh를 확인하세요.
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근거가 약하거나 이벤트 불확실성이 크면 다음 intelligence refresh와 swarm scenario가 추가 확인 레이어로 붙습니다.
방향성 우위 장세
큰 충돌 없이 같은 방향으로 정렬되었습니다.
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시장 차트
위 차트는 시각 참고용이며, 판단은 아래 근거와 토론을 함께 보세요.
Quant Forecast
7D / 14D / 30D 범위를 같은 구조로 비교합니다.
Technical Analysis
4-Crew Debate
Quant를 그대로 따를지, 조정할지, 뒤집을지 판단합니다.
Recent Swarm Scenario
위기 시에는 debate 위에 시뮬레이션 레이어가 추가됩니다.
KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_down bias with 9 active signals.
예측 이력
KC 최근 예측 적중 기록
AI 멀티모델 합의
독립 AI 에이전트의 교차 검증 분석
AI 판정
약세
확신도
66%
합의율
89%
참여
6/12
투표 분포
핵심 동인
- 1Brazil arabica harvest peak (June-August) drives Santos export surge — net bearish supply signal
- 2Rule-based bullish signals (wheat/Black Sea grain) have zero relevance to KC — data contamination reduces confidence in 'up' call
- 3Quant engine's strong -17% to -40% forecast is consistent with seasonal supply-side logistics reality for coffee
- 4Price at 7th percentile of 52w range creates asymmetric contrarian value signal — physical buyers and roasters typically re-enter at these extremes
- 5Sentiment confidence of 38 indicates weak bearish conviction; low-conviction consensus sells often mark exhaustion rather than continuation
주요 리스크
- !Port congestion at Santos during peak season could temporarily delay exports, creating short-term spot tightness
- !Vietnam robusta crop logistics disruption (typhoon season approaching) could partially offset arabica supply pressure
- !Bearish event impacts (net -3.00) are recent and could represent genuine supply-side deterioration — Brazil or Vietnam crop news could override mean-reversion thesis
- !Momentum is clearly negative; catching a falling knife at 7th percentile still carries mark-to-market pain if quant model's near-term trajectory partially materializes
크루별 분석 요약
The rule-based logistics signals are critically contaminated — both the 'bullish' signals reference Russian wheat exports to Kazakhstan and Black Sea grain pricing, which are entirely irrelevant to...
KC is printing at the 7th percentile of its 52-week range — a level where rule-based trend models tend to overshoot dramatically on the downside, as they extrapolate momentum into structurally...
While prices at the 6.8th percentile of the 52-week range theoretically trigger restocking interest from roasters and processors, the sheer magnitude of the quant bearish signal (-40% over 30 days)...
At $257.2, Arabica coffee is trading at historically elevated levels that are vulnerable to mean reversion, particularly as the quant engine signals -17% to -40% declines consistent with a supply...
Evidence → Validation → TradingView
장바구니 대신, 근거 확인과 성적표 검증 뒤 차트 실행으로 연결합니다.
30-Day Forecast Path
| Date | Forecast | Low | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | $228.49 | $209.59 | $245.93 |
| 2026-06-18 | $224.62 | $205.26 | $243.07 |
| 2026-06-19 | $220.54 | $203.76 | $238.37 |
| 2026-06-20 | $171.34 | $153.92 | $189.84 |
| 2026-06-21 | $168.23 | $149.71 | $186.41 |
| 2026-06-22 | $212.19 | $194.24 | $230.72 |
| 2026-06-23 | $209.50 | $192.48 | $227.11 |
| 2026-06-24 | $207.26 | $186.92 | $225.37 |
| 2026-06-25 | $204.49 | $186.05 | $223.19 |
| 2026-06-26 | $201.74 | $183.61 | $220.32 |
| 2026-06-27 | $154.10 | $136.38 | $172.15 |
| 2026-06-28 | $152.73 | $134.23 | $171.29 |
| 2026-06-29 | $198.58 | $179.34 | $215.28 |
| 2026-06-30 | $197.88 | $180.70 | $215.80 |
데이터 출처
방법론: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. 자세히 보기