CropCast 일일 상세 보고서

KC

유지 · 상승

83% conf

핵심 근거

i

[macro/sonnet-4.6] A +42% 30-day move in coffee is a supply-shock signature (Brazil frost/drought stress, Vietnam robusta shortfall, plus tariff risk on imports), not a macro-cycle trade — DXY and Fed policy haven't moved anywhere near enough this stretch to explain the magnitude. I stay directionally bullish on structural tightness and risk-on backdrop, but a rally this parabolic carries real near-term mean-reversion/blow-off risk that a pure trend-score misses.

왜 기다리거나 조심해야 하나

i

강세 쪽이지만 추격 매수보다 근거 확인 후 진입이 더 낫습니다.

다음 확인 포인트

i

parabolic_30d_move_raises_mean_reversion_odds

원문 근거

[macro/sonnet-4.6] A +42% 30-day move in coffee is a supply-shock signature (Brazil frost/drought stress, Vietnam robusta shortfall, plus tariff risk on imports), not a macro-cycle trade — DXY and Fed policy haven't moved anywhere near enough this stretch to explain the magnitude. I stay directionally bullish on structural tightness and risk-on backdrop, but a rally this parabolic carries real near-term mean-reversion/blow-off risk that a pure trend-score misses.

[macro/gpt-5.4] The broad commodity uptrend, widespread golden crosses, and bullish intelligence alignment support further KC upside, consistent with the Quant forecast. However, the projected 27.9% seven-day gain and 51% volatility regime indicate substantial overshoot and reversal risk, while the claim that a high crisis level necessarily boosts commodity risk appetite is too simplistic.

[supply/sonnet-4.6] Vietnam's excess Mekong-region moisture (precip 57mm vs ET0 27mm) during the robusta harvest/drying window is a genuine disruption risk—wet beans mean quality downgrades and delayed offtake—while an El Nino-driven drought signal in tropical arabica belts adds a second independent supply threat, which together justify a bullish tilt on fundamentals alone. However, the quant engine's 7d/14d/30d forecasts (+27.9%/+37.8%/+42.1%) are implausibly steep for a physical commodity absent a confirmed crop-loss event, and I treat that as a momentum/volatility artifact rather than corroborating supply evidence.

[supply/gpt-5.4] The combined excess-moisture signal, tropical drought risk, and approaching tight-supply period support upside pressure, while high volatility could amplify weather-driven disruptions. However, Vietnam is primarily a robusta producer, so its direct relevance to KC arabica is limited, and the unusually large Quant forecast is insufficiently supported by production, stocks-to-use, or crop-condition data.

원문 리스크

parabolic_30d_move_raises_mean_reversion_odds

any_DXY_strength_or_hawkish_Fed_repricing_would_pressure_all_USD_commodities_including_KC

extreme volatility and mean-reversion risk

insufficient direct evidence on DXY, energy, rates, and tariffs

충돌 진단

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최종 결정 로그

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채택 근거

보류/기각 근거

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HE

유지 · 상승

82% conf

핵심 근거

i

[logistics/sonnet-4.6] 실제 물류 신호(항만 정체, 콜드체인 병목, 수출 바시스, 철도/트럭 용량)가 하나도 확보되지 않은 상태라 방향성 있는 확신을 가질 근거가 없다. 퀀트 엔진의 7일/30일 상승과 14일 하락이 뒤섞인 흐름은 통상적인 계절적 도축량 변동이나 수출 물량 재조정 수준으로 설명 가능하며, 이것만으로 강세를 뒷받침하는 물류 병목 증거로 보기는 어렵다.

왜 기다리거나 조심해야 하나

i

강세 쪽이지만 추격 매수보다 근거 확인 후 진입이 더 낫습니다.

다음 확인 포인트

i

패커(도축장) 인력·가동률 이슈 발생 시 공급 병목으로 가격 급변 가능

원문 근거

[logistics/sonnet-4.6] 실제 물류 신호(항만 정체, 콜드체인 병목, 수출 바시스, 철도/트럭 용량)가 하나도 확보되지 않은 상태라 방향성 있는 확신을 가질 근거가 없다. 퀀트 엔진의 7일/30일 상승과 14일 하락이 뒤섞인 흐름은 통상적인 계절적 도축량 변동이나 수출 물량 재조정 수준으로 설명 가능하며, 이것만으로 강세를 뒷받침하는 물류 병목 증거로 보기는 어렵다.

[logistics/gpt-5.4] Logistics data provides no evidence of freight, port, cold-chain, export-flow, or basis disruptions that would create a directional delivery premium for lean hogs. The quant horizons conflict, with modest 7-day strength and strong 30-day gains offset by a 14-day decline, so a logistics-based directional call is not justified.

[demand/sonnet-4.6] Directionally I agree with demand-side support, but for weaker reasons than the rule-based score implies. Genuine demand driver: seasonal pork buying ahead of Chuseok (institutional/retail restocking) tends to lift near-term consumption, and the depressed 13.7th-percentile pricing does historically pull in value buyers once feed-cost-driven herd liquidation slows. However, the 14d -4.14% move shows real near-term selling pressure that the model's 7d/30d framing glosses over, and high corn costs are a supply/margin story, not a demand signal — bundling it as 'demand bullish' overstates the case.

[demand/gpt-5.4] Below-average prices should support pork consumption and seasonal buying, while the Quant Engine’s modest 7-day gain is directionally consistent with near-term demand strength. Conviction is limited because Korean holiday demand may transmit weakly to U.S. lean hog futures, the 14-day forecast is bearish, and high corn costs are primarily a supply-margin factor rather than direct demand evidence.

원문 리스크

패커(도축장) 인력·가동률 이슈 발생 시 공급 병목으로 가격 급변 가능

대중국 수출 관세/검역 이슈로 바시스 급변 시 현재 뉴트럴 판단이 빠르게 무효화될 수 있음

Unobserved cold-chain or trucking disruptions

Missing export-flow and regional basis data

충돌 진단

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최종 결정 로그

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채택 근거

보류/기각 근거

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ZC

조정 · 하락

80% conf

핵심 근거

i

[sentiment/sonnet-4.6] The raw news-sentiment signal is essentially null (0.0 vs 0.0 weighted, strength only 0.1) so it shouldn't be read as genuine neutrality — it's a data-quality gap, not evidence of balance. What actually carries information here is the event-impact cluster (8 events, net -0.38, severity 0.97) and the 95th-percentile 52w positioning, both of which point the same bearish direction and align with the quant engine's -5.06%/-3.59%/-2.47% momentum decay across horizons.

왜 기다리거나 조심해야 하나

i

당장 대응하기보다 기다리거나 방어적으로 보는 편이 낫습니다.

다음 확인 포인트

i

News-sentiment signal is effectively empty (0/0 weighted) despite 4-language coverage, so the 'neutral' read may just reflect thin/stale sourcing rather than true market calm

원문 근거

[sentiment/sonnet-4.6] The raw news-sentiment signal is essentially null (0.0 vs 0.0 weighted, strength only 0.1) so it shouldn't be read as genuine neutrality — it's a data-quality gap, not evidence of balance. What actually carries information here is the event-impact cluster (8 events, net -0.38, severity 0.97) and the 95th-percentile 52w positioning, both of which point the same bearish direction and align with the quant engine's -5.06%/-3.59%/-2.47% momentum decay across horizons.

[sentiment/gpt-5.4] The bearish event flow is unusually broad and severe, while price at the 95th percentile of its 52-week range creates a contrarian downside setup consistent with the Quant Engine's negative 7-day forecast. Neutral news sentiment offers little offset, but the absence of explicit COT positioning and options-skew data limits confidence.

[macro/sonnet-4.6] Cheap natural gas keeps nitrogen fertilizer input costs low, which supports planting economics and adds to supply-side pressure rather than price support — that's a macro tailwind for output, not price. The quant model's -5.1%/7d bearish momentum in corn diverges from the broad 8-ticker golden-cross tape, which reads more like a weak-USD/risk-on commodity beta trade than a corn-specific fundamental signal — corn isn't a crisis hedge the way energy or precious metals are, so I discount that factor.

[macro/gpt-5.4] Low natural-gas prices reduce fertilizer costs and support corn production margins, creating a macro supply-side headwind for ZC. The Quant Engine is bearish across all three horizons, while broad commodity golden crosses and the HIGH crisis reading are indirect signals that do not outweigh the corn-specific downside evidence.

원문 리스크

News-sentiment signal is effectively empty (0/0 weighted) despite 4-language coverage, so the 'neutral' read may just reflect thin/stale sourcing rather than true market calm

Extended positioning near highs can persist longer than expected if underlying event drivers (e.g. weather, export demand) resolve bullishly — squeeze risk against a crowded bearish trade

Severe events may already be priced into the market

Missing COT and options-skew data weakens confirmation of positioning extremes

충돌 진단

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최종 결정 로그

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채택 근거

보류/기각 근거

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CC

조정 · 상승

71% conf

핵심 근거

i

[logistics/sonnet-4.6] No shipping route disruptions, port congestion, or basis signals are currently detected for cocoa, and export sales data is unavailable to assess demand-side logistics pressure. Given West Africa remains the dominant origin for cocoa exports, an absence of signal is not confirmation of smooth flow — it likely reflects a data gap rather than genuine calm.

왜 기다리거나 조심해야 하나

i

강세 쪽이지만 추격 매수보다 근거 확인 후 진입이 더 낫습니다.

다음 확인 포인트

i

Data blind spot on West African export logistics could mask real disruption

원문 근거

[logistics/sonnet-4.6] No shipping route disruptions, port congestion, or basis signals are currently detected for cocoa, and export sales data is unavailable to assess demand-side logistics pressure. Given West Africa remains the dominant origin for cocoa exports, an absence of signal is not confirmation of smooth flow — it likely reflects a data gap rather than genuine calm.

[logistics/gpt-5.4] No active shipping disruption, port congestion, export-sales, basis, or seasonal trade signal supports a directional logistics view for cocoa. The quant outlook is nearly flat over seven days and only gradually positive at longer horizons, so logistics evidence does not justify overriding the neutral base case.

[global_commodity/sonnet-4.6] West African supply tightness from El Niño-driven dryness in Ivory Coast/Ghana is the genuine fundamental driver here, and it's consistent with the medium-term uptrend (golden cross, positive MACD). But I'd temper the crew's 90-confidence double_up call: the 7-day quant read is flat-to-negative (-0.17%) after a strong 30-day run (+4.89%), suggesting the move may be pausing or partially priced in, and cocoa's historically extreme volatility means momentum signals reverse fast.

[global_commodity/gpt-5.4] The medium-term trend, positive MACD, seasonal bias, and cocoa’s relative strength versus coffee support a bullish view, while the 14-day and 30-day forecasts remain positive. However, the near-flat 7-day forecast and use of moving-average structure as a backwardation proxy do not justify the rule-based model’s extreme conviction.

원문 리스크

Data blind spot on West African export logistics could mask real disruption

Cocoa is prone to abrupt logistics shocks (strikes, smuggling crackdowns, weather-related road closures) that wouldn't show up until already priced in

Missing export-sales and basis data

Unobserved cocoa-origin logistics disruptions could change delivery risk

충돌 진단

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최종 결정 로그

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채택 근거

보류/기각 근거

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SB

조정 · 하락

71% conf

핵심 근거

i

[logistics/sonnet-4.6] Only one signal in the crew data is actually sugar-specific — Brazil's cane crushing/export peak in August — and it points bearish: peak-season Brazil supply flooding export channels typically pressures raw sugar basis and nearby futures, which lines up with the quant engine's -3.5%/-4.86%/-2.76% bearish trend across all windows. The other five 'shipping_port' signals are wheat and soybean export stories, not sugar logistics, so they shouldn't be driving a sugar directional call at all.

왜 기다리거나 조심해야 하나

i

당장 대응하기보다 기다리거나 방어적으로 보는 편이 낫습니다.

다음 확인 포인트

i

Four of the five shipping signals are misclassified wheat/soybean events, so the crew's 46-confidence neutral call is built on noise rather than sugar fundamentals

원문 근거

[logistics/sonnet-4.6] Only one signal in the crew data is actually sugar-specific — Brazil's cane crushing/export peak in August — and it points bearish: peak-season Brazil supply flooding export channels typically pressures raw sugar basis and nearby futures, which lines up with the quant engine's -3.5%/-4.86%/-2.76% bearish trend across all windows. The other five 'shipping_port' signals are wheat and soybean export stories, not sugar logistics, so they shouldn't be driving a sugar directional call at all.

[logistics/gpt-5.4] Most cited shipping disruptions concern wheat or soybeans and provide weak direct evidence for SB delivery risk. Brazil's active cane-crushing and export peak should improve near-term sugar availability, reinforcing the Quant Engine's bearish forecast, although missing SB basis and export-flow data limits confidence.

[macro/sonnet-4.6] The quant engine shows a consistent bearish trend across all three timeframes (-3.5% 7d, -4.86% 14d, -2.76% 30d), which is a stronger and more sugar-specific signal than the rule-based macro read. That macro bullish call leans on generic cross-commodity momentum ('7 golden crosses across commodities') and a broad 'crisis high risk appetite' factor rather than anything specific to sugar's actual macro drivers — USD strength, Brazilian real dynamics, and the ethanol/oil substitution channel that governs Brazilian mill output decisions.

[macro/gpt-5.4] The Quant Engine projects declines across all three horizons, with the sharpest weakness over 14 days, providing stronger and more commodity-specific evidence than broad golden-cross counts. The macro bullish case is under-supported because no direct DXY, energy-price, central-bank, trade, or geopolitical indicators are supplied, while a HIGH crisis level can produce risk-off pressure rather than reliably increase commodity demand.

원문 리스크

Four of the five shipping signals are misclassified wheat/soybean events, so the crew's 46-confidence neutral call is built on noise rather than sugar fundamentals

A real Black Sea/wheat escalation could spill into broader ag-freight rates and cold-chain/vessel availability, indirectly tightening sugar logistics later in the season

Black Sea disruption could spill over into freight costs

No SB basis or export-sales data

충돌 진단

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최종 결정 로그

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채택 근거

보류/기각 근거

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LE

조정 · 상승

68% conf

핵심 근거

i

[logistics/sonnet-4.6] No shipping route disruptions, port congestion, or basis anomalies are currently flagged for LE — the quant engine's 6% 7-day bullish move looks driven by fundamentals/demand rather than logistics friction, which sits outside my crew's signal set. Live cattle is a domestic-slaughter commodity with minimal ocean-freight exposure, so my read carries low weight relative to fundamentals-focused crews.

왜 기다리거나 조심해야 하나

i

강세 쪽이지만 추격 매수보다 근거 확인 후 진입이 더 낫습니다.

다음 확인 포인트

i

Data gaps mean an emerging trucking/cold-chain bottleneck could go undetected

원문 근거

[logistics/sonnet-4.6] No shipping route disruptions, port congestion, or basis anomalies are currently flagged for LE — the quant engine's 6% 7-day bullish move looks driven by fundamentals/demand rather than logistics friction, which sits outside my crew's signal set. Live cattle is a domestic-slaughter commodity with minimal ocean-freight exposure, so my read carries low weight relative to fundamentals-focused crews.

[logistics/gpt-5.4] No active freight, port, cold-chain, export-sales, or basis signals provide logistics evidence for a directional LE call. The Quant Engine's bullish forecast is notable, but without supply-chain confirmation it does not justify overriding the logistics assessment.

[sentiment/sonnet-4.6] Sentiment 크루가 명시적 시그널을 하나도 제시하지 못한 것 자체가 정보인데, 이는 COT/옵션스큐/뉴스 데이터가 부재하거나 처리 실패했다는 뜻이지 실제로 시장이 중립이라는 뜻은 아니다. 퀀트 엔진의 7일 +6.09%라는 강한 반등은 통상 스펙 포지션 청산이나 쇼트커버링을 동반하는데, 이를 확인할 실측 데이터가 없으니 방향성 베팅의 근거로 삼기엔 위험하다.

[sentiment/gpt-5.4] The available sentiment dataset contains no CFTC positioning, options-skew, news-tone, or crowd-flow signal capable of confirming a directional view. Although the Quant Engine shows strong 7-day bullish momentum, price momentum alone cannot establish whether sentiment is supportive or already crowded, so a neutral stance remains appropriate.

원문 리스크

Data gaps mean an emerging trucking/cold-chain bottleneck could go undetected

A sharp bullish move without visible logistics support raises risk of a supply-side (not transport) shock unaccounted for here

Undetected domestic rail or truck capacity constraints

Missing basis and cold-chain data could conceal delivery stress

충돌 진단

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최종 결정 로그

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채택 근거

보류/기각 근거

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ZS

조정 · 보합

64% conf

핵심 근거

i

[macro/sonnet-4.6] Low natural gas keeps input costs (fertilizer, drying, transport) cheap, which is a supply-side tailwind but not a demand driver, so it shouldn't be read as bullish for price. The bigger swing factor the rule-based score misses is trade policy: soybeans are the single most tariff-exposed U.S. ag export to China, and with DXY still firm and no clear signal on tariff escalation/de-escalation, that risk sits squarely on the bearish side of neutral rather than a true wash.

왜 기다리거나 조심해야 하나

i

확신도가 더 쌓일 때까지 관찰 모드가 적절합니다.

다음 확인 포인트

i

sudden_china_tariff_announcement_either_direction

원문 근거

[macro/sonnet-4.6] Low natural gas keeps input costs (fertilizer, drying, transport) cheap, which is a supply-side tailwind but not a demand driver, so it shouldn't be read as bullish for price. The bigger swing factor the rule-based score misses is trade policy: soybeans are the single most tariff-exposed U.S. ag export to China, and with DXY still firm and no clear signal on tariff escalation/de-escalation, that risk sits squarely on the bearish side of neutral rather than a true wash.

[macro/gpt-5.4] The modest 7-day bearish forecast conflicts with positive 14- and 30-day projections, leaving no durable directional macro signal. Low natural-gas prices marginally reduce production costs, but soybeans are less fertilizer-intensive than grains such as corn, while the stated crisis regime could support prices through supply-risk premiums or weaken them through USD strength and risk aversion.

[demand/sonnet-4.6] 돼지 마진(HE) 52주 14% 수준의 사육 손실 국면은 배합사료 수요 억제로 이어지고, 대두박(SBM) 파생 수요 채널의 구조적 약세를 뒷받침한다. 한국 추석 준비 수요는 소비재(식용유·장류) 중심이라 ZS 원물 수요에 미치는 영향은 제한적이지만, 계절적 매수 공백과 겹쳐 방향성을 강화하는 보조 신호로 본다.

[demand/gpt-5.4] Near-term soybean demand pressure is modestly bearish because weak livestock profitability can restrain soybean-meal consumption, while the quantitative seven-day forecast also points lower. However, the positive 14- and 30-day forecasts and the limited global significance of Korean holiday demand make this a low-conviction view.

원문 리스크

sudden_china_tariff_announcement_either_direction

fed_policy_shift_repricing_dxy

unreported_dxy_and_central_bank_trends

geopolitical_or_trade_policy_shock

충돌 진단

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최종 결정 로그

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채택 근거

보류/기각 근거

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CT

조정 · 하락

64% conf

핵심 근거

i

[demand/sonnet-4.6] Elevated price (82.9th percentile of 52w range) is the dominant demand signal — it's already compressing downstream textile/apparel margins, which historically curbs mill offtake and forward buying within 4-6 weeks. Quant momentum confirms softening (-2.3%/-2.35%/-1.4% across 7/14/30d), and I don't see a durable demand offset: Chuseok and back-to-school restocking are real but modest, short-lived seasonal bumps rather than structural demand drivers for a globally-traded cotton contract.

왜 기다리거나 조심해야 하나

i

당장 대응하기보다 기다리거나 방어적으로 보는 편이 낫습니다.

다음 확인 포인트

i

Chuseok/back-to-school restocking could still produce a short-term demand pop that surprises to the upside if inventories are leaner than assumed

원문 근거

[demand/sonnet-4.6] Elevated price (82.9th percentile of 52w range) is the dominant demand signal — it's already compressing downstream textile/apparel margins, which historically curbs mill offtake and forward buying within 4-6 weeks. Quant momentum confirms softening (-2.3%/-2.35%/-1.4% across 7/14/30d), and I don't see a durable demand offset: Chuseok and back-to-school restocking are real but modest, short-lived seasonal bumps rather than structural demand drivers for a globally-traded cotton contract.

[demand/gpt-5.4] Demand pressure appears modestly bearish because the elevated price level is likely constraining downstream textile margins while the Quant forecast shows consistent declines across 7-, 14-, and 30-day horizons. Back-to-school orders are likely largely committed by mid-August, and Korean Chuseok demand is too narrow to offset broader price-sensitive consumption weakness.

[supply/sonnet-4.6] Mid-August falls squarely in the U.S. cotton boll-development window, and absent any drought/heat-stress signal in the supplied data, seasonal norms favor benign crop progress into the September WASDE, which typically keeps a lid on prices. The quant's -2.3%/-2.35%/-1.4% 7d/14d/30d cluster is directionally consistent and shows no divergence or reversal, supporting a bearish lean, but I'm not seeing actual NDVI, crop-condition (good/excellent %), or stocks-to-use figures in this feed to confirm 'supply pressure easing' is fundamentals-driven rather than just price momentum.

[supply/gpt-5.4] The consistently negative 7-, 14-, and 30-day forecasts support a bearish view, with the largest decline concentrated in the next two weeks. However, confidence should be below the rule-based 86 because no current weather, crop-condition, NDVI, production, or stocks-to-use evidence is provided to independently confirm easing cotton supply pressure.

원문 리스크

Chuseok/back-to-school restocking could still produce a short-term demand pop that surprises to the upside if inventories are leaner than assumed

Rule-based reasoning weights Korean domestic seasonal demand fairly heavily, but CT is a globally-priced contract — domestic KR textile patterns are a second-order factor, so if global mill demand (China, India, Vietnam) diverges from the KR read, this view could be wrong

unexpected_restocking_by_textile_mills

stronger_than_expected_holiday_demand

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Ticker	Current	7D	30D	MAPE
CC	$5,710.00	neutral (-0.17%)	bullish (+4.89%)	6.5
CL	$81.21	bearish (-8.29%)	bearish (-12.61%)	4.63
CT	$83.21	bearish (-2.30%)	bearish (-1.40%)	1.62
HE	$82.18	bullish (+0.80%)	bullish (+7.50%)	2.4
KC	$313.40	bullish (+27.92%)	bullish (+42.12%)	3.95
LE	$220.30	bullish (+6.09%)	bullish (+2.62%)	1.3
NG	$2.73	bearish (-6.23%)	bearish (-13.85%)	6.92
SB	$16.75	bearish (-3.50%)	bearish (-2.76%)	2.15
ZC	$472.25	bearish (-5.06%)	bearish (-2.47%)	1.89
ZO	$340.25	bearish (-20.71%)	bearish (-28.91%)	3.58
ZS	$1,183.00	bearish (-0.64%)	bullish (+0.74%)	1.97
ZW	$668.50	bearish (-7.26%)	bearish (-5.10%)	2.44
KR_배추	₩1,320	bearish (-68.67%)	-	-
KR_양파	₩1,267	bullish (+73.10%)	-	-
KR_사과	₩8,250	bearish (-254.20%)	-	-
KR_쌀	₩2,950	neutral (+0.00%)	-	-

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