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Signal Detail

Coffee

AI Quick Answer

Coffee (KC) 30-day outlook: Bullish. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: El Nino remains a legitimate structural bullish driver for KC — it tends to brin. Confidence 82%. (As of 2026-08-14)

KC
↑Bullish⇄ADJUST
Current Price
$312.00
-6.33%
Consensus
74%
Confidence
82%
decision confidence82%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
08/15/2026, 07:06 AM (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 29.81%

Coffee currently leans bullish.

Review the evidence, then follow the bullish setup selectively.

Daily reportScorecard
Summary

Plain-Language Call

Read direction, evidence, and risk before deciding how to execute.

Quick read

Coffee currently leans bullish. Review the evidence, then follow the bullish setup selectively.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
08/15/2026, 07:06 AM (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 29.81%
Evidence basis
Supply (sonnet-4.6)
El Nino remains a legitimate structural bullish driver for KC — it tends to bring drought stress to Vietnam/Indonesia Robusta regions and irregular flowering conditions in Brazil's Arabica belt, both of which support the 'approaching tight supply' framing. However, I discount the rule-based confidence meaningfully because a +29.8% 7-day quant forecast is an outlier magnitude for a physical commodity outside of a genuine weather-shock event, and 47% volatility cuts both ways — it flags disruption risk but also means sharp mean-reversion is just as plausible as continuation.
Supply (gpt-5.4)
Supply conditions lean bullish because drought risk in tropical producing regions coincides with an approaching tight-supply period, while the quant forecast signals substantial near-term upside. However, confidence is moderated because no direct crop-condition, production, inventory, or regional weather observations are provided, and 47% volatility makes the projected price gains unusually uncertain.
Macro (sonnet-4.6)
Macro backdrop (broad commodity uptrend, 8 golden crosses, extreme crisis-driven flight to real assets) supports a bullish stance on coffee as part of a wider commodity complex re-rating, and weak-dollar/inflation-hedge flows are consistent with that. But a +44.7% 30-day move is extreme even for a crisis regime, and coffee is unusually supply-driven (Brazil/Vietnam weather, logistics) rather than purely macro-driven, so I discount the rule-based confidence for overextension and reversion risk.
Why this call
i

Enso El Nino Tropical

Why waiting may be better
i

Quant 7d Forecast Magnitude Implausible For Physical Commodity

What to watch next
i

High Volatility Could Reverse As Easily As Extend

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
supply
↑Bullish
▸ details
supply
↑Bullish
▸ details
macro
↑Bullish
▸ details
macro
—Neutral
▸ details
Market regime

High-volatility regime

Event context
Quant 7d Forecast Magnitude Implausible For Physical Commodity
High Volatility Could Reverse As Easily As Extend
Missing Crop And Inventory Evidence
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Base scenario

Coffee currently leans bullish.

Risk watch
Quant 7d Forecast Magnitude Implausible For Physical Commodity
High Volatility Could Reverse As Easily As Extend
Missing Crop And Inventory Evidence
KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 14 active signals.
Chart

Market Chart

The chart is visual reference only; the actual call comes from the evidence and debate below.

Delayed data. Combine this chart with evidence and scorecard context.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Compare 7D, 14D, and 30D ranges in the same structure.

7d
$405.02
+29.81%
$383.63 ~ $425.94
14d
$435.64
+39.63%
$414.63 ~ $456.02
30d
$451.47
+44.70%
$429.69 ~ $472.88
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

This is where the system confirms, adjusts, or overrides the quant base case.

Decision
⇄ADJUST
Direction
↑Bullish
Consensus
74%
Score
+0.913
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

In crisis conditions, simulation becomes an extra decision layer.

Run
swarm_20260815_070424_kc
Direction
Bullish
Confidence
92%

KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 14 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (2개)다수 지역 홍수 (2개)폭염 경고
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for KC

KC
KC
KC
KC
54%
Hit rate
AI Debate

AI Multi-Model Consensus

Cross-validated analysis from independent AI agents

▲

AI Verdict

Bullish

Confidence

57%

Agreement

73%

Agents

12/12

Vote Breakdown

Bullish
73%
Neutral
15%
Bearish
12%

Key Drivers

  • 1Enso El Nino Tropical
  • 2Approaching Tight Supply
  • 3Brazil Vietnam Flowering Risk
  • 4Tropical Drought Risk
  • 5Approaching Tight Supply Window

Key Risks

  • !Quant 7d Forecast Magnitude Implausible For Physical Commodity
  • !High Volatility Could Reverse As Easily As Extend
  • !Missing Crop And Inventory Evidence
  • !High Volatility Forecast Error

Crew Analysis Summary

◈Supplysonnet-4.6

El Nino remains a legitimate structural bullish driver for KC — it tends to bring drought stress to Vietnam/Indonesia Robusta regions and irregular flowering conditions in Brazil's Arabica belt, both...

◈Supplygpt-5.4

Supply conditions lean bullish because drought risk in tropical producing regions coincides with an approaching tight-supply period, while the quant forecast signals substantial near-term upside.

◎Macrosonnet-4.6

Macro backdrop (broad commodity uptrend, 8 golden crosses, extreme crisis-driven flight to real assets) supports a bullish stance on coffee as part of a wider commodity complex re-rating, and...

◎Macrogpt-5.4

Broad commodity participation and widespread golden crosses support continued upside in KC, while the Quant forecast confirms strong momentum across multiple horizons.

Rule-based vs AI Verdictagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Remove shopping behavior and keep the page focused on evidence, scorecard validation, and chart execution.

Report
Open evidence report
Validation
Review scorecard and paper trading
Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-08-15$364.86$344.55$385.51
2026-08-16$370.78$350.60$390.94
2026-08-17$383.86$362.36$405.13
2026-08-18$389.57$367.93$410.24
2026-08-19$395.81$377.21$414.71
2026-08-20$400.63$380.50$419.86
2026-08-21$405.02$383.63$425.94
2026-08-22$404.71$382.40$422.90
2026-08-23$409.69$389.89$429.86
2026-08-24$421.56$399.55$442.97
2026-08-25$425.79$405.22$446.56
2026-08-26$430.34$408.54$450.30
2026-08-27$433.28$411.99$453.01
2026-08-28$435.64$414.63$456.02
E-E-A-T

Data Sources

USDA WASDENOAA ENSO/CFSv2CFTC COTNASA NDVIKAMISCME GroupFAO

Methodology: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Last updated:

CropCast v2.0 — AI Commodity Price Prediction Engine