Por que o preco do Café esta em Baixa?

[Supply Crew / KC] Excess moisture in vietnam_mekong: precip 71mm vs ET0 27mm. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-17.4%), supply pressure easing. Seasonal: month 6 typically sees new supply arriving for KC. 52w position 7%: low prices likely reducing production incentives; [Demand Crew / KC] Price at 6.8th percentile of 52w range — bargain levels attract restocking and value buying from processors. Cheap sugar makes sweetened beverages more competitive vs. coffee. Quant 7d: bearish (-17.4%), consistent with demand softness

Qual a previsao de preco do Café em 30 dias?

30-day forecast: $205.47 (-24.90%), range: $187.49–$224.14.

Como comecar a negociar futuros de Café?

Café (KC) futures trade on CME/ICE. Review CropCast evidence and scorecard, then execute via a charting platform like TradingView.

Quais fatores influenciam o preco do Café?

Key factors include USDA stock reports, NOAA weather forecasts, CFTC COT positioning, NASA NDVI crop health, FX rates, and energy prices.

Qual a precisao das previsoes do CropCast para Café?

Hit rate: 57.3% (43/75). Wrong calls stay visible.

Previsão de Preço Café 2026 — IA

↓Baixa⇄ADJUST

Preço Atual

$273.60

+4.05%

Consenso

66%

Confiança

64%

Confiança da decisão64%

Main report time

Market snapshot time

17/06/2026, 03:05 (UTC)

Quant basis

7D bearish · -23.43%

Café está com viés baixista no momento.

Em vez de perseguir o preço, faz mais sentido agir com defesa ou esperar um preço melhor.

Relatório diário Scorecard

Summary

Leitura em linguagem simples

Leia direção, evidência e risco antes de decidir como executar.

Leitura rápida

Café está com viés baixista no momento. Em vez de perseguir o preço, faz mais sentido agir com defesa ou esperar um preço melhor.

Judgment basis

Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.

Main report time

Market snapshot time

17/06/2026, 03:05 (UTC)

Quant basis

7D bearish · -23.43%

Evidence basis

Oferta

[Supply Crew / KC] Excess moisture in vietnam_mekong: precip 71mm vs ET0 27mm. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-17.4%), supply pressure easing. Seasonal: month 6 typically sees new supply arriving for KC. 52w position 7%: low prices likely reducing production incentives

Demanda

[Demand Crew / KC] Price at 6.8th percentile of 52w range — bargain levels attract restocking and value buying from processors. Cheap sugar makes sweetened beverages more competitive vs. coffee. Quant 7d: bearish (-17.4%), consistent with demand softness

Macro

[Macro Crew / KC] Broad momentum: 8 golden crosses across commodities. Intelligence: 5 geopolitical signals (risk-on for commodities). EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bearish (-17.4%), macro alignment

Por que essa leitura

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Por que esperar pode ser melhor

Em vez de perseguir o preço, faz mais sentido agir com defesa ou esperar um preço melhor.

O que observar a seguir

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Market regime

Directional regime

Event context

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Disagreement diagnosis

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence

Deferred evidence

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Cenário base

Café está com viés baixista no momento.

Risco

Não há grande divergência no momento.

KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_down bias with 9 active signals.

Chart

Gráfico de Mercado

O gráfico é apenas referência visual; a chamada real vem da evidência e do debate abaixo.

Dados com atraso. Combine o gráfico com evidência e scorecard.

Quant

Quant Forecast

Compare 7D, 14D e 30D na mesma estrutura.

$209.50

-23.43%

$192.48 ~ $227.11

14d

$197.88

-27.67%

$180.70 ~ $215.80

30d

$205.47

-24.90%

$187.49 ~ $224.14

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Aqui o sistema confirma, ajusta ou substitui a tese base do quant.

Decision

⇄ADJUST

Direction

↓Baixa

Consensus

66%

Score

-0.479

Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

Em crise, a simulação vira uma camada extra de decisão.

Run

swarm_20260412_063047_kc

Direction

Baixa

Confidence

66.4%

KC swarm simulation under extreme: double_down bias with 9 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (2개)LE 52주 극단CC 52주 극단

Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for KC

57%

Hit rate

AI Debate

Consenso Multi-IA

Análise cruzada de agentes de IA independentes

▼

Veredicto IA

Baixa

Confiança

66%

Acordo

89%

Agents

6/12

Votação

Alta

Neutro

11%

Baixa

89%

Fatores-chave

1Brazil arabica harvest peak (June-August) drives Santos export surge — net bearish supply signal
2Rule-based bullish signals (wheat/Black Sea grain) have zero relevance to KC — data contamination reduces confidence in 'up' call
3Quant engine's strong -17% to -40% forecast is consistent with seasonal supply-side logistics reality for coffee
4Price at 7th percentile of 52w range creates asymmetric contrarian value signal — physical buyers and roasters typically re-enter at these extremes
5Sentiment confidence of 38 indicates weak bearish conviction; low-conviction consensus sells often mark exhaustion rather than continuation

Riscos-chave

!Port congestion at Santos during peak season could temporarily delay exports, creating short-term spot tightness
!Vietnam robusta crop logistics disruption (typhoon season approaching) could partially offset arabica supply pressure
!Bearish event impacts (net -3.00) are recent and could represent genuine supply-side deterioration — Brazil or Vietnam crop news could override mean-reversion thesis
!Momentum is clearly negative; catching a falling knife at 7th percentile still carries mark-to-market pain if quant model's near-term trajectory partially materializes

Resumo por Equipe

⬡Logisticssonnet-4.6

The rule-based logistics signals are critically contaminated — both the 'bullish' signals reference Russian wheat exports to Kazakhstan and Black Sea grain pricing, which are entirely irrelevant to...

◆Sentimentsonnet-4.6

KC is printing at the 7th percentile of its 52-week range — a level where rule-based trend models tend to overshoot dramatically on the downside, as they extrapolate momentum into structurally...

◉Demandsonnet-4.6

While prices at the 6.8th percentile of the 52-week range theoretically trigger restocking interest from roasters and processors, the sheer magnitude of the quant bearish signal (-40% over 30 days)...

◎Macrosonnet-4.6

At $257.2, Arabica coffee is trading at historically elevated levels that are vulnerable to mean reversion, particularly as the quant engine signals -17% to -40% declines consistent with a supply...

Regras vs IAdisagree

Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Remova o comportamento de compra e mantenha a página focada em evidência, scorecard e execução no gráfico.

Report

Abrir relatório de evidência

Validation

Ver scorecard e paper trading

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

Date	Forecast	Low	High
2026-06-17	$228.49	$209.59	$245.93
2026-06-18	$224.62	$205.26	$243.07
2026-06-19	$220.54	$203.76	$238.37
2026-06-20	$171.34	$153.92	$189.84
2026-06-21	$168.23	$149.71	$186.41
2026-06-22	$212.19	$194.24	$230.72
2026-06-23	$209.50	$192.48	$227.11
2026-06-24	$207.26	$186.92	$225.37
2026-06-25	$204.49	$186.05	$223.19
2026-06-26	$201.74	$183.61	$220.32
2026-06-27	$154.10	$136.38	$172.15
2026-06-28	$152.73	$134.23	$171.29
2026-06-29	$198.58	$179.34	$215.28
2026-06-30	$197.88	$180.70	$215.80

E-E-A-T

Fontes de Dados

USDA WASDE NOAA ENSO/CFSv2 CFTC COT NASA NDVI KAMIS CME Group FAO

Metodologia: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Ultima atualizacao: 17/06/2026, 03:05 (UTC)