Signal Detail

КРС

AI-ответ

КРС (LE) 30-day outlook: Рост. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+5.9%), supply may be tightening;. Confidence 70%. (As of 2026-08-14)

LE
РостADJUST
Текущая цена
$218.78
-3.29%
Консенсус
79%
Уверенность
70%
Уверенность решения70%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
15.08.2026, 07:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 5.92%

КРС сейчас выглядит скорее бычьим.

Сначала проверьте доказательства, затем выборочно следуйте бычьему сценарию.

Summary

Простое объяснение сигнала

Сначала прочитайте направление, доказательства и риск, а потом решайте, как исполнять.

Быстрый вывод

КРС сейчас выглядит скорее бычьим. Сначала проверьте доказательства, затем выборочно следуйте бычьему сценарию.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
15.08.2026, 07:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 5.92%
Evidence basis
Предложение
[Supply Crew / LE] Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+5.9%), supply may be tightening
Спрос
[Demand Crew / LE] Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Price at 22.9th percentile of 52w range — below-average pricing supports downstream demand recovery. Cheap pork draws consumers away from beef, pressuring cattle demand. High corn feed costs squeeze cattle producer margins, eventually bearish supply response. Quant 7d: bullish (+5.9%), consistent with demand strength
Макро
[Macro Crew / LE] Broad commodity trend bullish: 8/11 above SMA200 (73%). Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bullish (+5.9%), macro alignment
Почему такой вывод
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Почему ждать может быть лучше
i

Even on a bullish call, remaining risks mean waiting for confirmation can still be cleaner than chasing.

Что смотреть дальше
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Базовый сценарий

КРС сейчас выглядит скорее бычьим.

Риск-контроль
Сейчас значимых разногласий нет.
LE swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 14 active signals.
Chart

Рыночный график

График служит только визуальной опорой; реальный вывод формируется из доказательств и debate ниже.

Данные с задержкой. Сверяйте решение с доказательствами и scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Сравните 7D, 14D и 30D в одной структуре.

7d
$231.72
+5.92%
$227.10 ~ $236.46
14d
$229.16
+4.75%
$224.60 ~ $233.91
30d
$223.48
+2.15%
$218.55 ~ $228.17
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Здесь система подтверждает, корректирует или переворачивает quant base case.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Рост
Consensus
79%
Score
+0.949
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

В кризисе simulation становится дополнительным уровнем решения.

Run
swarm_20260815_070424_le
Direction
Рост
Confidence
92%

LE swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 14 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (2개)다수 지역 홍수 (2개)폭염 경고
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for LE

LE
LE
LE
LE
54%
Hit rate
AI Debate

AI Мульти-модель

Перекрёстная проверка независимыми AI

Вердикт AI

Бычий

Уверен.

64%

Согласие

82%

Agents

12/12

Голосование

Бычий
82%
Нейтр.
18%
Медвежий
0%

Ключ. факторы

  • 1활성 배송 경로 차질 신호 없음
  • 2가축 물류 특성상(냉장 트럭 운송, 단거리) 해상 BDI/항만 혼잡 데이터의 연관성 자체가 낮음
  • 3베이시스 및 계절적 무역 신호 데이터 부재로 판단 불가
  • 4No detected shipping or port disruptions
  • 5No available basis signal for physical-market tightness

Осн. риски

  • !여름철 폭염으로 인한 사육장~도축장 트럭 운송 지연 및 가축 폐사율 상승 가능성이 데이터에 미반영
  • !도축 능력(패킹 플랜트) 병목이 물류 신호에 잡히지 않을 수 있음
  • !Missing export-sales and basis data may conceal emerging tightness
  • !Undetected rail, truck, or cold-chain disruptions could rapidly constrain deliveries

Анализ по группам

Логист.sonnet-4.6

물류 관점에서 Live Cattle에 대한 실질적 신호가 전무하다 — 항로 혼잡, 수출 판매, 베이시스 데이터 모두 부재한 상태로, 이는 리스크 부재가 아니라 데이터 공백일 뿐이다. 퀀트 엔진의 강세 전망(7일 +5.92%)을 물류 관점에서 확증도 반증도 할 수 없으므로 독자적 방향성 베팅을 걸 근거가 없다.

Логист.gpt-5.4

The logistics data show no active transport, port, cold-chain, basis, or seasonal disruptions that would independently tighten cattle deliveries.

Спросsonnet-4.6

Chuseok pre-holiday buying and a below-average price percentile (22.9th) support a genuine demand recovery narrative, and the quant 7d momentum (+5.9%) corroborates near-term strength.

Спросgpt-5.4

The bullish 7-day and 14-day forecasts, combined with below-average relative pricing, support near-term demand resilience.

Правила vs AIagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

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Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-08-15$235.75$230.74$240.37
2026-08-16$235.70$231.12$240.16
2026-08-17$232.30$227.67$236.83
2026-08-18$232.32$227.89$237.41
2026-08-19$232.32$227.96$237.13
2026-08-20$231.93$227.25$236.75
2026-08-21$231.72$227.10$236.46
2026-08-22$234.71$229.92$239.44
2026-08-23$234.42$230.00$239.01
2026-08-24$230.77$226.16$235.47
2026-08-25$230.53$225.94$234.80
2026-08-26$230.28$225.41$234.74
2026-08-27$229.62$225.06$234.42
2026-08-28$229.16$224.60$233.91
E-E-A-T

Источники данных

Методология: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Обновлено:

CropCast v2.0 — ИИ-движок прогнозов цен на сырьё