Signal Detail

КРС

AI-ответ

КРС (LE) 30-day outlook: Рост. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+1.4%), supply may be tightening;. Confidence 65%. (As of 2026-06-17)

LE
РостADJUST
Текущая цена
$249.13
-0.60%
Консенсус
72%
Уверенность
65%
Уверенность решения65%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
17.06.2026, 03:05 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D neutral · 0.07%

КРС сейчас выглядит скорее бычьим.

Сначала проверьте доказательства, затем выборочно следуйте бычьему сценарию.

Summary

Простое объяснение сигнала

Сначала прочитайте направление, доказательства и риск, а потом решайте, как исполнять.

Быстрый вывод

КРС сейчас выглядит скорее бычьим. Сначала проверьте доказательства, затем выборочно следуйте бычьему сценарию.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
17.06.2026, 03:05 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D neutral · 0.07%
Evidence basis
Предложение
[Supply Crew / LE] Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+1.4%), supply may be tightening
Спрос
[Demand Crew / LE] Price at 83.3th percentile of 52w range — moderately elevated, beginning to pressure downstream margins. Quant 7d: bullish (+1.4%), consistent with demand strength
Макро
[Macro Crew / LE] LOW volatility regime (12%): compression often precedes breakout. Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. Intelligence: 5 geopolitical signals (risk-on for commodities). EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bullish (+1.4%), macro alignment
Почему такой вывод
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Почему ждать может быть лучше
i

Even on a bullish call, remaining risks mean waiting for confirmation can still be cleaner than chasing.

Что смотреть дальше
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Базовый сценарий

КРС сейчас выглядит скорее бычьим.

Риск-контроль
Сейчас значимых разногласий нет.
LE swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 4 active signals.
Chart

Рыночный график

График служит только визуальной опорой; реальный вывод формируется из доказательств и debate ниже.

Данные с задержкой. Сверяйте решение с доказательствами и scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Сравните 7D, 14D и 30D в одной структуре.

7d
$249.30
+0.07%
$245.08 ~ $253.67
14d
$245.66
-1.39%
$241.32 ~ $249.97
30d
$245.63
-1.40%
$240.98 ~ $250.17
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Здесь система подтверждает, корректирует или переворачивает quant base case.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Рост
Consensus
72%
Score
+0.707
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

В кризисе simulation становится дополнительным уровнем решения.

Run
swarm_20260612_065312_le
Direction
Рост
Confidence
89.2%

LE swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 4 active signals.

KC 52주 극단다수 선물 고변동성 (3개)다수 선물 RSI 극단 (3개)
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for LE

LE
LE
LE
55%
Hit rate
AI Debate

AI Мульти-модель

Перекрёстная проверка независимыми AI

Вердикт AI

Бычий

Уверен.

55%

Согласие

70%

Agents

6/12

Голосование

Бычий
70%
Нейтр.
15%
Медвежий
15%

Ключ. факторы

  • 1Peak summer grilling demand (June) tightens domestic cattle logistics and supports cash basis
  • 2Packing plant throughput capacity constraints in Q2 historically pressure delivered premiums higher
  • 330-day negative drift (-0.94%) suggests price fatigue at elevated 249.88 level, but short-term logistics demand pulse is positive
  • 4Packer Margin Compression At 83rd Pct Price
  • 5Summer Grilling Season Partial Offset

Осн. риски

  • !Price at 249.88 is historically elevated — any demand softening or feed-cost shock could trigger rapid correction
  • !Diesel/truck rate increases could widen basis spreads adversely if cattle movement slows toward processing hubs
  • !Surprise Export Demand Surge Especially Asia Could Push Bullish
  • !Feed Cost Driven Early Marketings Increasing Supply Pressure On Demand Signal Confusion

Анализ по группам

Логист.sonnet-4.6

Live Cattle is a predominantly domestic US commodity where ocean freight and port congestion are largely irrelevant, hence the automated system's low relevance score (0.2) is appropriate.

Спросsonnet-4.6

Live Cattle at $249.88 (83rd percentile of 52-week range) is entering territory where packer margin compression becomes a real demand headwind — packers absorbing tight margins bid less aggressively...

Настр.sonnet-4.6

Live Cattle at $249.88 sits near multi-year highs where CFTC speculative net-long positioning historically becomes dangerously crowded, creating asymmetric reversal risk.

Макроsonnet-4.6

Live Cattle (LE) at $249.88 reflects a structurally tight US herd — multi-decade low inventory from prolonged drought cycles creates genuine supply-side support that no amount of demand management...

Правила vs AIagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Уберите shopping-логику и сфокусируйте страницу на доказательствах, scorecard и chart execution.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-06-17$252.24$248.24$256.86
2026-06-18$251.68$247.57$255.78
2026-06-19$251.50$247.62$255.90
2026-06-20$251.22$246.79$255.58
2026-06-21$250.77$246.71$255.03
2026-06-22$249.72$245.18$254.17
2026-06-23$249.30$245.08$253.67
2026-06-24$249.22$245.01$253.49
2026-06-25$248.40$244.15$252.81
2026-06-26$248.02$243.75$251.99
2026-06-27$247.61$243.40$251.92
2026-06-28$247.09$242.67$251.25
2026-06-29$246.02$241.60$250.13
2026-06-30$245.66$241.32$249.97
E-E-A-T

Источники данных

Методология: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Обновлено:

CropCast v2.0 — ИИ-движок прогнозов цен на сырьё