Signal Detail

Live Cattle

AI Quick Answer

Live Cattle (LE) 30-day outlook: Bullish. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: 물류 관점에서 Live Cattle에 대한 실질적 신호가 전무하다 — 항로 혼잡, 수출 판매, 베이시스 데이터 모두 부재한 상태로, 이는 리스크. Confidence 70%. (As of 2026-08-14)

LE
BullishADJUST
Current Price
$218.78
-3.29%
Consensus
79%
Confidence
70%
decision confidence70%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
08/15/2026, 07:06 AM (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 5.92%

Live Cattle currently leans bullish.

Review the evidence, then follow the bullish setup selectively.

Summary

Plain-Language Call

Read direction, evidence, and risk before deciding how to execute.

Quick read

Live Cattle currently leans bullish. Review the evidence, then follow the bullish setup selectively.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
08/15/2026, 07:06 AM (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 5.92%
Evidence basis
Logistics (sonnet-4.6)
물류 관점에서 Live Cattle에 대한 실질적 신호가 전무하다 — 항로 혼잡, 수출 판매, 베이시스 데이터 모두 부재한 상태로, 이는 리스크 부재가 아니라 데이터 공백일 뿐이다. 퀀트 엔진의 강세 전망(7일 +5.92%)을 물류 관점에서 확증도 반증도 할 수 없으므로 독자적 방향성 베팅을 걸 근거가 없다.
Logistics (gpt-5.4)
The logistics data show no active transport, port, cold-chain, basis, or seasonal disruptions that would independently tighten cattle deliveries. The Quant Engine is bullish, but its price momentum is not corroborated by logistics evidence, and missing export-sales and basis data materially limit conviction.
Demand (sonnet-4.6)
Chuseok pre-holiday buying and a below-average price percentile (22.9th) support a genuine demand recovery narrative, and the quant 7d momentum (+5.9%) corroborates near-term strength. However, I discount the rule-based confidence somewhat because two of its five factors actually cut against each other: cheap pork is a real substitution headwind for beef demand, and high corn costs are a supply-margin story, not a demand driver, so it's misclassified as demand support.
Why this call
i

활성 배송 경로 차질 신호 없음

Why waiting may be better
i

여름철 폭염으로 인한 사육장~도축장 트럭 운송 지연 및 가축 폐사율 상승 가능성이 데이터에 미반영

What to watch next
i

도축 능력(패킹 플랜트) 병목이 물류 신호에 잡히지 않을 수 있음

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
logistics
Neutral
details
logistics
Bullish
details
demand
Neutral
details
demand
Bullish
details
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Missing export-sales and basis data may conceal emerging tightness
Undetected rail, truck, or cold-chain disruptions could rapidly constrain deliveries
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Base scenario

Live Cattle currently leans bullish.

Risk watch
Missing export-sales and basis data may conceal emerging tightness
Undetected rail, truck, or cold-chain disruptions could rapidly constrain deliveries

Detailed narrative is currently available in the source-language data only.

LE swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 14 active signals.
Chart

Market Chart

The chart is visual reference only; the actual call comes from the evidence and debate below.

Delayed data. Combine this chart with evidence and scorecard context.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Compare 7D, 14D, and 30D ranges in the same structure.

7d
$231.72
+5.92%
$227.10 ~ $236.46
14d
$229.16
+4.75%
$224.60 ~ $233.91
30d
$223.48
+2.15%
$218.55 ~ $228.17
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

This is where the system confirms, adjusts, or overrides the quant base case.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Bullish
Consensus
79%
Score
+0.949
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

In crisis conditions, simulation becomes an extra decision layer.

Run
swarm_20260815_070424_le
Direction
Bullish
Confidence
92%

LE swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 14 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (2개)다수 지역 홍수 (2개)폭염 경고
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for LE

LE
LE
LE
LE
54%
Hit rate
AI Debate

AI Multi-Model Consensus

Cross-validated analysis from independent AI agents

AI Verdict

Bullish

Confidence

64%

Agreement

82%

Agents

12/12

Vote Breakdown

Bullish
82%
Neutral
18%
Bearish
0%

Key Drivers

  • 1활성 배송 경로 차질 신호 없음
  • 2가축 물류 특성상(냉장 트럭 운송, 단거리) 해상 BDI/항만 혼잡 데이터의 연관성 자체가 낮음
  • 3베이시스 및 계절적 무역 신호 데이터 부재로 판단 불가
  • 4No detected shipping or port disruptions
  • 5No available basis signal for physical-market tightness

Key Risks

  • !여름철 폭염으로 인한 사육장~도축장 트럭 운송 지연 및 가축 폐사율 상승 가능성이 데이터에 미반영
  • !도축 능력(패킹 플랜트) 병목이 물류 신호에 잡히지 않을 수 있음
  • !Missing export-sales and basis data may conceal emerging tightness
  • !Undetected rail, truck, or cold-chain disruptions could rapidly constrain deliveries

Crew Analysis Summary

Logisticssonnet-4.6

물류 관점에서 Live Cattle에 대한 실질적 신호가 전무하다 — 항로 혼잡, 수출 판매, 베이시스 데이터 모두 부재한 상태로, 이는 리스크 부재가 아니라 데이터 공백일 뿐이다. 퀀트 엔진의 강세 전망(7일 +5.92%)을 물류 관점에서 확증도 반증도 할 수 없으므로 독자적 방향성 베팅을 걸 근거가 없다.

Logisticsgpt-5.4

The logistics data show no active transport, port, cold-chain, basis, or seasonal disruptions that would independently tighten cattle deliveries.

Demandsonnet-4.6

Chuseok pre-holiday buying and a below-average price percentile (22.9th) support a genuine demand recovery narrative, and the quant 7d momentum (+5.9%) corroborates near-term strength.

Demandgpt-5.4

The bullish 7-day and 14-day forecasts, combined with below-average relative pricing, support near-term demand resilience.

Rule-based vs AI Verdictagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

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Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-08-15$235.75$230.74$240.37
2026-08-16$235.70$231.12$240.16
2026-08-17$232.30$227.67$236.83
2026-08-18$232.32$227.89$237.41
2026-08-19$232.32$227.96$237.13
2026-08-20$231.93$227.25$236.75
2026-08-21$231.72$227.10$236.46
2026-08-22$234.71$229.92$239.44
2026-08-23$234.42$230.00$239.01
2026-08-24$230.77$226.16$235.47
2026-08-25$230.53$225.94$234.80
2026-08-26$230.28$225.41$234.74
2026-08-27$229.62$225.06$234.42
2026-08-28$229.16$224.60$233.91
E-E-A-T

Data Sources

Methodology: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Last updated:

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