Signal Detail

Sapi

Jawaban Cepat AI

Sapi (LE) 30-day outlook: Naik. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+1.4%), supply may be tightening;. Confidence 65%. (As of 2026-06-17)

LE
NaikADJUST
Harga Saat Ini
$249.13
-0.60%
Konsensus
72%
Kepercayaan
65%
Confidence keputusan65%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
17/06/2026, 03.05 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D neutral · 0.07%

Sapi saat ini condong bullish.

Tinjau bukti dulu, lalu ikuti skenario bullish secara selektif.

Summary

Ringkasan sederhana

Baca arah, bukti, dan risiko sebelum memutuskan cara eksekusi.

Ringkasan cepat

Sapi saat ini condong bullish. Tinjau bukti dulu, lalu ikuti skenario bullish secara selektif.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
17/06/2026, 03.05 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D neutral · 0.07%
Evidence basis
Pasokan
[Supply Crew / LE] Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+1.4%), supply may be tightening
Permintaan
[Demand Crew / LE] Price at 83.3th percentile of 52w range — moderately elevated, beginning to pressure downstream margins. Quant 7d: bullish (+1.4%), consistent with demand strength
Makro
[Macro Crew / LE] LOW volatility regime (12%): compression often precedes breakout. Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. Intelligence: 5 geopolitical signals (risk-on for commodities). EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bullish (+1.4%), macro alignment
Mengapa seperti ini
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Mengapa menunggu bisa lebih baik
i

Even on a bullish call, remaining risks mean waiting for confirmation can still be cleaner than chasing.

Apa yang dicek berikutnya
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Skenario dasar

Sapi saat ini condong bullish.

Risk watch
Belum ada perbedaan besar saat ini.
LE swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 4 active signals.
Chart

Grafik Pasar

Grafik hanya referensi visual; keputusan utama datang dari bukti dan debate di bawah.

Data tertunda. Gabungkan chart dengan bukti dan scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Bandingkan 7D, 14D, dan 30D dalam struktur yang sama.

7d
$249.30
+0.07%
$245.08 ~ $253.67
14d
$245.66
-1.39%
$241.32 ~ $249.97
30d
$245.63
-1.40%
$240.98 ~ $250.17
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Di sini sistem mengonfirmasi, menyesuaikan, atau override base case quant.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Naik
Consensus
72%
Score
+0.707
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

Saat krisis, simulasi menjadi layer keputusan tambahan.

Run
swarm_20260612_065312_le
Direction
Naik
Confidence
89.2%

LE swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 4 active signals.

KC 52주 극단다수 선물 고변동성 (3개)다수 선물 RSI 극단 (3개)
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for LE

LE
LE
LE
55%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Konsensus Multi-AI

Analisis silang dari agen AI independen

Keputusan AI

Naik

Keyakinan

55%

Kesepakatan

70%

Agents

6/12

Distribusi Suara

Naik
70%
Netral
15%
Turun
15%

Faktor Kunci

  • 1Peak summer grilling demand (June) tightens domestic cattle logistics and supports cash basis
  • 2Packing plant throughput capacity constraints in Q2 historically pressure delivered premiums higher
  • 330-day negative drift (-0.94%) suggests price fatigue at elevated 249.88 level, but short-term logistics demand pulse is positive
  • 4Packer Margin Compression At 83rd Pct Price
  • 5Summer Grilling Season Partial Offset

Risiko Utama

  • !Price at 249.88 is historically elevated — any demand softening or feed-cost shock could trigger rapid correction
  • !Diesel/truck rate increases could widen basis spreads adversely if cattle movement slows toward processing hubs
  • !Surprise Export Demand Surge Especially Asia Could Push Bullish
  • !Feed Cost Driven Early Marketings Increasing Supply Pressure On Demand Signal Confusion

Ringkasan Analisis Kru

Logisticssonnet-4.6

Live Cattle is a predominantly domestic US commodity where ocean freight and port congestion are largely irrelevant, hence the automated system's low relevance score (0.2) is appropriate.

Demandsonnet-4.6

Live Cattle at $249.88 (83rd percentile of 52-week range) is entering territory where packer margin compression becomes a real demand headwind — packers absorbing tight margins bid less aggressively...

Sentimentsonnet-4.6

Live Cattle at $249.88 sits near multi-year highs where CFTC speculative net-long positioning historically becomes dangerously crowded, creating asymmetric reversal risk.

Macrosonnet-4.6

Live Cattle (LE) at $249.88 reflects a structurally tight US herd — multi-decade low inventory from prolonged drought cycles creates genuine supply-side support that no amount of demand management...

Aturan vs AIagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Hilangkan perilaku shopping dan fokuskan halaman pada bukti, scorecard, dan chart execution.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-06-17$252.24$248.24$256.86
2026-06-18$251.68$247.57$255.78
2026-06-19$251.50$247.62$255.90
2026-06-20$251.22$246.79$255.58
2026-06-21$250.77$246.71$255.03
2026-06-22$249.72$245.18$254.17
2026-06-23$249.30$245.08$253.67
2026-06-24$249.22$245.01$253.49
2026-06-25$248.40$244.15$252.81
2026-06-26$248.02$243.75$251.99
2026-06-27$247.61$243.40$251.92
2026-06-28$247.09$242.67$251.25
2026-06-29$246.02$241.60$250.13
2026-06-30$245.66$241.32$249.97
E-E-A-T

Sumber Data

Metodologi: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Terakhir diperbarui:

CropCast v2.0 — Mesin Prediksi Harga Komoditas AI