Signal Detail

Ganado

Respuesta Rapida IA

Ganado (LE) 30-day outlook: Alcista. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+1.4%), supply may be tightening;. Confidence 65%. (As of 2026-06-17)

LE
AlcistaADJUST
Precio Actual
$249.13
-0.60%
Consenso
72%
Confianza
65%
Confianza de la decisión65%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
17/06/2026, 03:05 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D neutral · 0.07%

Ganado muestra un sesgo alcista por ahora.

Revisa la evidencia y después sigue el escenario alcista de forma selectiva.

Summary

Lectura en lenguaje claro

Lee dirección, evidencia y riesgo antes de decidir cómo ejecutar.

Lectura rápida

Ganado muestra un sesgo alcista por ahora. Revisa la evidencia y después sigue el escenario alcista de forma selectiva.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
17/06/2026, 03:05 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D neutral · 0.07%
Evidence basis
Oferta
[Supply Crew / LE] Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+1.4%), supply may be tightening
Demanda
[Demand Crew / LE] Price at 83.3th percentile of 52w range — moderately elevated, beginning to pressure downstream margins. Quant 7d: bullish (+1.4%), consistent with demand strength
Macro
[Macro Crew / LE] LOW volatility regime (12%): compression often precedes breakout. Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. Intelligence: 5 geopolitical signals (risk-on for commodities). EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bullish (+1.4%), macro alignment
Por qué esta lectura
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Por qué puede ser mejor esperar
i

Even on a bullish call, remaining risks mean waiting for confirmation can still be cleaner than chasing.

Qué vigilar después
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Escenario base

Ganado muestra un sesgo alcista por ahora.

Riesgo
No hay grandes desacuerdos ahora mismo.
LE swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 4 active signals.
Chart

Gráfico de Mercado

El gráfico es solo referencia visual; la decisión real sale de la evidencia y del debate inferior.

Datos con retraso. Combina el gráfico con evidencia y scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Compara 7D, 14D y 30D con la misma estructura.

7d
$249.30
+0.07%
$245.08 ~ $253.67
14d
$245.66
-1.39%
$241.32 ~ $249.97
30d
$245.63
-1.40%
$240.98 ~ $250.17
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Aquí el sistema confirma, ajusta o revierte la tesis base del quant.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Alcista
Consensus
72%
Score
+0.707
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

En crisis, la simulación agrega una capa extra de decisión.

Run
swarm_20260612_065312_le
Direction
Alcista
Confidence
89.2%

LE swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 4 active signals.

KC 52주 극단다수 선물 고변동성 (3개)다수 선물 RSI 극단 (3개)
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for LE

LE
LE
LE
55%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Consenso Multi-IA

Análisis cruzado de agentes de IA independientes

Veredicto IA

Alcista

Confianza

55%

Acuerdo

70%

Agents

6/12

Votación

Alcista
70%
Neutral
15%
Bajista
15%

Factores clave

  • 1Peak summer grilling demand (June) tightens domestic cattle logistics and supports cash basis
  • 2Packing plant throughput capacity constraints in Q2 historically pressure delivered premiums higher
  • 330-day negative drift (-0.94%) suggests price fatigue at elevated 249.88 level, but short-term logistics demand pulse is positive
  • 4Packer Margin Compression At 83rd Pct Price
  • 5Summer Grilling Season Partial Offset

Riesgos clave

  • !Price at 249.88 is historically elevated — any demand softening or feed-cost shock could trigger rapid correction
  • !Diesel/truck rate increases could widen basis spreads adversely if cattle movement slows toward processing hubs
  • !Surprise Export Demand Surge Especially Asia Could Push Bullish
  • !Feed Cost Driven Early Marketings Increasing Supply Pressure On Demand Signal Confusion

Resumen por Equipo

Logisticssonnet-4.6

Live Cattle is a predominantly domestic US commodity where ocean freight and port congestion are largely irrelevant, hence the automated system's low relevance score (0.2) is appropriate.

Demandsonnet-4.6

Live Cattle at $249.88 (83rd percentile of 52-week range) is entering territory where packer margin compression becomes a real demand headwind — packers absorbing tight margins bid less aggressively...

Sentimentsonnet-4.6

Live Cattle at $249.88 sits near multi-year highs where CFTC speculative net-long positioning historically becomes dangerously crowded, creating asymmetric reversal risk.

Macrosonnet-4.6

Live Cattle (LE) at $249.88 reflects a structurally tight US herd — multi-decade low inventory from prolonged drought cycles creates genuine supply-side support that no amount of demand management...

Reglas vs IAagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Quita el comportamiento de compra y deja la página enfocada en evidencia, scorecard y ejecución por gráfico.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-06-17$252.24$248.24$256.86
2026-06-18$251.68$247.57$255.78
2026-06-19$251.50$247.62$255.90
2026-06-20$251.22$246.79$255.58
2026-06-21$250.77$246.71$255.03
2026-06-22$249.72$245.18$254.17
2026-06-23$249.30$245.08$253.67
2026-06-24$249.22$245.01$253.49
2026-06-25$248.40$244.15$252.81
2026-06-26$248.02$243.75$251.99
2026-06-27$247.61$243.40$251.92
2026-06-28$247.09$242.67$251.25
2026-06-29$246.02$241.60$250.13
2026-06-30$245.66$241.32$249.97
E-E-A-T

Fuentes de Datos

Metodologia: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Ultima actualizacion:

CropCast v2.0 — Motor de Predicción de Precios con IA