Signal Detail

Gado-Vivo

Resposta Rapida IA

Gado-Vivo (LE) 30-day outlook: Alta. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+5.9%), supply may be tightening;. Confidence 70%. (As of 2026-08-14)

LE
AltaADJUST
Preço Atual
$218.78
-3.29%
Consenso
79%
Confiança
70%
Confiança da decisão70%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
15/08/2026, 07:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 5.92%

Gado-Vivo está com viés altista no momento.

Revise a evidência e então siga o cenário altista de forma seletiva.

Summary

Leitura em linguagem simples

Leia direção, evidência e risco antes de decidir como executar.

Leitura rápida

Gado-Vivo está com viés altista no momento. Revise a evidência e então siga o cenário altista de forma seletiva.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
15/08/2026, 07:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 5.92%
Evidence basis
Oferta
[Supply Crew / LE] Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+5.9%), supply may be tightening
Demanda
[Demand Crew / LE] Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Price at 22.9th percentile of 52w range — below-average pricing supports downstream demand recovery. Cheap pork draws consumers away from beef, pressuring cattle demand. High corn feed costs squeeze cattle producer margins, eventually bearish supply response. Quant 7d: bullish (+5.9%), consistent with demand strength
Macro
[Macro Crew / LE] Broad commodity trend bullish: 8/11 above SMA200 (73%). Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bullish (+5.9%), macro alignment
Por que essa leitura
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Por que esperar pode ser melhor
i

Even on a bullish call, remaining risks mean waiting for confirmation can still be cleaner than chasing.

O que observar a seguir
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Cenário base

Gado-Vivo está com viés altista no momento.

Risco
Não há grande divergência no momento.
LE swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 14 active signals.
Chart

Gráfico de Mercado

O gráfico é apenas referência visual; a chamada real vem da evidência e do debate abaixo.

Dados com atraso. Combine o gráfico com evidência e scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Compare 7D, 14D e 30D na mesma estrutura.

7d
$231.72
+5.92%
$227.10 ~ $236.46
14d
$229.16
+4.75%
$224.60 ~ $233.91
30d
$223.48
+2.15%
$218.55 ~ $228.17
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Aqui o sistema confirma, ajusta ou substitui a tese base do quant.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Alta
Consensus
79%
Score
+0.949
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

Em crise, a simulação vira uma camada extra de decisão.

Run
swarm_20260815_070424_le
Direction
Alta
Confidence
92%

LE swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 14 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (2개)다수 지역 홍수 (2개)폭염 경고
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for LE

LE
LE
LE
LE
54%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Consenso Multi-IA

Análise cruzada de agentes de IA independentes

Veredicto IA

Alta

Confiança

64%

Acordo

82%

Agents

12/12

Votação

Alta
82%
Neutro
18%
Baixa
0%

Fatores-chave

  • 1활성 배송 경로 차질 신호 없음
  • 2가축 물류 특성상(냉장 트럭 운송, 단거리) 해상 BDI/항만 혼잡 데이터의 연관성 자체가 낮음
  • 3베이시스 및 계절적 무역 신호 데이터 부재로 판단 불가
  • 4No detected shipping or port disruptions
  • 5No available basis signal for physical-market tightness

Riscos-chave

  • !여름철 폭염으로 인한 사육장~도축장 트럭 운송 지연 및 가축 폐사율 상승 가능성이 데이터에 미반영
  • !도축 능력(패킹 플랜트) 병목이 물류 신호에 잡히지 않을 수 있음
  • !Missing export-sales and basis data may conceal emerging tightness
  • !Undetected rail, truck, or cold-chain disruptions could rapidly constrain deliveries

Resumo por Equipe

Logisticssonnet-4.6

물류 관점에서 Live Cattle에 대한 실질적 신호가 전무하다 — 항로 혼잡, 수출 판매, 베이시스 데이터 모두 부재한 상태로, 이는 리스크 부재가 아니라 데이터 공백일 뿐이다. 퀀트 엔진의 강세 전망(7일 +5.92%)을 물류 관점에서 확증도 반증도 할 수 없으므로 독자적 방향성 베팅을 걸 근거가 없다.

Logisticsgpt-5.4

The logistics data show no active transport, port, cold-chain, basis, or seasonal disruptions that would independently tighten cattle deliveries.

Demandsonnet-4.6

Chuseok pre-holiday buying and a below-average price percentile (22.9th) support a genuine demand recovery narrative, and the quant 7d momentum (+5.9%) corroborates near-term strength.

Demandgpt-5.4

The bullish 7-day and 14-day forecasts, combined with below-average relative pricing, support near-term demand resilience.

Regras vs IAagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

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Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-08-15$235.75$230.74$240.37
2026-08-16$235.70$231.12$240.16
2026-08-17$232.30$227.67$236.83
2026-08-18$232.32$227.89$237.41
2026-08-19$232.32$227.96$237.13
2026-08-20$231.93$227.25$236.75
2026-08-21$231.72$227.10$236.46
2026-08-22$234.71$229.92$239.44
2026-08-23$234.42$230.00$239.01
2026-08-24$230.77$226.16$235.47
2026-08-25$230.53$225.94$234.80
2026-08-26$230.28$225.41$234.74
2026-08-27$229.62$225.06$234.42
2026-08-28$229.16$224.60$233.91
E-E-A-T

Fontes de Dados

Metodologia: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Ultima atualizacao:

CropCast v2.0 — Motor de Previsão de Preços de Commodities com IA