Signal Detail

Gado-Vivo

Resposta Rapida IA

Gado-Vivo (LE) 30-day outlook: Alta. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+1.4%), supply may be tightening;. Confidence 65%. (As of 2026-06-17)

LE
AltaADJUST
Preço Atual
$249.13
-0.60%
Consenso
72%
Confiança
65%
Confiança da decisão65%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
17/06/2026, 03:05 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D neutral · 0.07%

Gado-Vivo está com viés altista no momento.

Revise a evidência e então siga o cenário altista de forma seletiva.

Summary

Leitura em linguagem simples

Leia direção, evidência e risco antes de decidir como executar.

Leitura rápida

Gado-Vivo está com viés altista no momento. Revise a evidência e então siga o cenário altista de forma seletiva.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
17/06/2026, 03:05 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D neutral · 0.07%
Evidence basis
Oferta
[Supply Crew / LE] Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+1.4%), supply may be tightening
Demanda
[Demand Crew / LE] Price at 83.3th percentile of 52w range — moderately elevated, beginning to pressure downstream margins. Quant 7d: bullish (+1.4%), consistent with demand strength
Macro
[Macro Crew / LE] LOW volatility regime (12%): compression often precedes breakout. Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. Intelligence: 5 geopolitical signals (risk-on for commodities). EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bullish (+1.4%), macro alignment
Por que essa leitura
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Por que esperar pode ser melhor
i

Even on a bullish call, remaining risks mean waiting for confirmation can still be cleaner than chasing.

O que observar a seguir
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Cenário base

Gado-Vivo está com viés altista no momento.

Risco
Não há grande divergência no momento.
LE swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 4 active signals.
Chart

Gráfico de Mercado

O gráfico é apenas referência visual; a chamada real vem da evidência e do debate abaixo.

Dados com atraso. Combine o gráfico com evidência e scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Compare 7D, 14D e 30D na mesma estrutura.

7d
$249.30
+0.07%
$245.08 ~ $253.67
14d
$245.66
-1.39%
$241.32 ~ $249.97
30d
$245.63
-1.40%
$240.98 ~ $250.17
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Aqui o sistema confirma, ajusta ou substitui a tese base do quant.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Alta
Consensus
72%
Score
+0.707
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

Em crise, a simulação vira uma camada extra de decisão.

Run
swarm_20260612_065312_le
Direction
Alta
Confidence
89.2%

LE swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 4 active signals.

KC 52주 극단다수 선물 고변동성 (3개)다수 선물 RSI 극단 (3개)
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for LE

LE
LE
LE
55%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Consenso Multi-IA

Análise cruzada de agentes de IA independentes

Veredicto IA

Alta

Confiança

55%

Acordo

70%

Agents

6/12

Votação

Alta
70%
Neutro
15%
Baixa
15%

Fatores-chave

  • 1Peak summer grilling demand (June) tightens domestic cattle logistics and supports cash basis
  • 2Packing plant throughput capacity constraints in Q2 historically pressure delivered premiums higher
  • 330-day negative drift (-0.94%) suggests price fatigue at elevated 249.88 level, but short-term logistics demand pulse is positive
  • 4Packer Margin Compression At 83rd Pct Price
  • 5Summer Grilling Season Partial Offset

Riscos-chave

  • !Price at 249.88 is historically elevated — any demand softening or feed-cost shock could trigger rapid correction
  • !Diesel/truck rate increases could widen basis spreads adversely if cattle movement slows toward processing hubs
  • !Surprise Export Demand Surge Especially Asia Could Push Bullish
  • !Feed Cost Driven Early Marketings Increasing Supply Pressure On Demand Signal Confusion

Resumo por Equipe

Logisticssonnet-4.6

Live Cattle is a predominantly domestic US commodity where ocean freight and port congestion are largely irrelevant, hence the automated system's low relevance score (0.2) is appropriate.

Demandsonnet-4.6

Live Cattle at $249.88 (83rd percentile of 52-week range) is entering territory where packer margin compression becomes a real demand headwind — packers absorbing tight margins bid less aggressively...

Sentimentsonnet-4.6

Live Cattle at $249.88 sits near multi-year highs where CFTC speculative net-long positioning historically becomes dangerously crowded, creating asymmetric reversal risk.

Macrosonnet-4.6

Live Cattle (LE) at $249.88 reflects a structurally tight US herd — multi-decade low inventory from prolonged drought cycles creates genuine supply-side support that no amount of demand management...

Regras vs IAagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Remova o comportamento de compra e mantenha a página focada em evidência, scorecard e execução no gráfico.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-06-17$252.24$248.24$256.86
2026-06-18$251.68$247.57$255.78
2026-06-19$251.50$247.62$255.90
2026-06-20$251.22$246.79$255.58
2026-06-21$250.77$246.71$255.03
2026-06-22$249.72$245.18$254.17
2026-06-23$249.30$245.08$253.67
2026-06-24$249.22$245.01$253.49
2026-06-25$248.40$244.15$252.81
2026-06-26$248.02$243.75$251.99
2026-06-27$247.61$243.40$251.92
2026-06-28$247.09$242.67$251.25
2026-06-29$246.02$241.60$250.13
2026-06-30$245.66$241.32$249.97
E-E-A-T

Fontes de Dados

Metodologia: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Ultima atualizacao:

CropCast v2.0 — Motor de Previsão de Preços de Commodities com IA