Signal Detail

Какао

AI-ответ

Какао (CC) 30-day outlook: Рост. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: El Nino: drought risk in tropical producing regions. Quant 7d. Confidence 50%. (As of 2026-08-14)

CC
РостOVERRIDE
Текущая цена
$5,786.00
+2.44%
Консенсус
49%
Уверенность
50%
Уверенность решения50%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
15.08.2026, 07:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -1.93%

Какао сейчас выглядит скорее бычьим.

Сначала проверьте доказательства, затем выборочно следуйте бычьему сценарию.

Summary

Простое объяснение сигнала

Сначала прочитайте направление, доказательства и риск, а потом решайте, как исполнять.

Быстрый вывод

Какао сейчас выглядит скорее бычьим. Сначала проверьте доказательства, затем выборочно следуйте бычьему сценарию.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
15.08.2026, 07:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -1.93%
Evidence basis
Предложение
[Supply Crew / CC] El Nino: drought risk in tropical producing regions. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-1.9%), supply pressure easing. Strong positive trend (slope: 5.02). High volatility (53%): potential supply-chain disruption
Спрос
[Demand Crew / CC] Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). High sugar prices pressure confectionery margins, reducing cocoa demand. Quant 7d: bearish (-1.9%), consistent with demand softness
Макро
[Macro Crew / CC] EXTREME volatility regime (53%): market dislocation, mean reversion likely. Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bearish (-1.9%), macro alignment
Почему такой вывод
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Почему ждать может быть лучше
i

Even on a bullish call, remaining risks mean waiting for confirmation can still be cleaner than chasing.

Что смотреть дальше
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Базовый сценарий

Какао сейчас выглядит скорее бычьим.

Риск-контроль
Сейчас значимых разногласий нет.
CC swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 10 active signals.
Chart

Рыночный график

График служит только визуальной опорой; реальный вывод формируется из доказательств и debate ниже.

Данные с задержкой. Сверяйте решение с доказательствами и scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Сравните 7D, 14D и 30D в одной структуре.

7d
$5,674.33
-1.93%
$5011.52 ~ $6343.84
14d
$5,760.82
-0.44%
$5113.82 ~ $6398.67
30d
$5,913.24
+2.20%
$5233.54 ~ $6585.22
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Здесь система подтверждает, корректирует или переворачивает quant base case.

Decision
OVERRIDE
Direction
Рост
Consensus
49%
Score
+0.455
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

В кризисе simulation становится дополнительным уровнем решения.

Run
swarm_20260814_070342_cc
Direction
Рост
Confidence
90.8%

CC swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 10 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (2개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for CC

CC
25%
Hit rate
AI Debate

AI Мульти-модель

Перекрёстная проверка независимыми AI

Вердикт AI

Бычий

Уверен.

34%

Согласие

42%

Agents

12/12

Голосование

Бычий
42%
Нейтр.
38%
Медвежий
19%

Ключ. факторы

  • 1Broad Commodity Golden Crosses Signal Weak Dollar Regime
  • 2Crisis Extreme Reading Supports Real Asset Hoarding
  • 3Extreme Volatility Raises Mean Reversion Odds Either Direction
  • 4Conflicting Forecast Horizons
  • 5Missing Direct Macro Indicators

Осн. риски

  • !Quant 7d Momentum Bearish At -1.9pct Directly Conflicts With Macro Bullish Call
  • !Extreme Volatility Regime Could Resolve Downward Just As Easily As Upward If Dollar Strengthens On Fed Hawkishness
  • !Short Term Quant Decline
  • !Cocoa Specific Supply Shocks

Анализ по группам

Макроsonnet-4.6

Broad commodity-complex momentum (7 golden crosses) alongside a crisis-extreme reading points to flight-to-real-assets positioning that typically accompanies a weakening or uncertain USD/DXY backdrop...

Макроgpt-5.4

The bearish 7-day quant forecast conflicts with a modestly bullish 30-day outlook, while the supplied macro data lacks direct evidence on DXY, energy prices, central-bank policy, tariffs, or...

Предлож.sonnet-4.6

El Niño-driven drought/heat stress in West Africa (Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana account for ~60% of global supply) keeps stocks-to-use structurally tight after two consecutive deficit seasons, and that...

Предлож.gpt-5.4

The El Niño drought signal creates upside supply risk for tropical cocoa production, but no region-specific rainfall, NDVI, crop-condition, production, or stocks data confirms an active shortage.

Правила vs AIagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

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Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-08-15$5976.49$5298.29$6624.38
2026-08-16$5994.54$5298.94$6705.31
2026-08-17$5629.14$4932.59$6336.34
2026-08-18$5670.33$4981.71$6329.30
2026-08-19$5685.54$5046.67$6362.99
2026-08-20$5682.33$5009.19$6362.15
2026-08-21$5674.33$5011.52$6343.84
2026-08-22$6092.61$5402.17$6729.37
2026-08-23$6107.01$5456.44$6758.52
2026-08-24$5737.68$5083.10$6424.33
2026-08-25$5774.50$5074.36$6430.70
2026-08-26$5784.71$5110.58$6428.70
2026-08-27$5775.66$5095.89$6461.72
2026-08-28$5760.82$5113.82$6398.67
E-E-A-T

Источники данных

Методология: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Обновлено:

CropCast v2.0 — ИИ-движок прогнозов цен на сырьё