←
Signal Detail

Cocoa

AI Quick Answer

Cocoa (CC) 30-day outlook: Bullish. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Cocoa at 14% of its 52-week range signals prices are deeply depressed, which his. Confidence 70%. (As of 2026-06-17)

CC
↑Bullish⇄ADJUST
Current Price
$4,232.00
+9.02%
Consensus
56%
Confidence
70%
decision confidence70%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
06/17/2026, 03:05 AM (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -12.68%

Cocoa currently leans bullish.

Review the evidence, then follow the bullish setup selectively.

Daily reportScorecard
Summary

Plain-Language Call

Read direction, evidence, and risk before deciding how to execute.

Quick read

Cocoa currently leans bullish. Review the evidence, then follow the bullish setup selectively.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
06/17/2026, 03:05 AM (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -12.68%
Evidence basis
Supply (sonnet-4.6)
Cocoa at 14% of its 52-week range signals prices are deeply depressed, which historically suppresses West African farmer investment in inputs (fertilizer, crop protection) and reduces replanting incentives — a classic supply-side tightening feedback loop. However, the 14-day quant forecast showing -11.08% is a significant red flag that suggests near-term supply relief may be entering the market (likely mid-crop flows from Ivory Coast/Ghana in June), tempering my bullish conviction versus the rule-based 72%. The 30-day +15.05% signal aligns with post-mid-crop seasonal tightening and supports a medium-term bullish bias.
Demand (sonnet-4.6)
Cocoa at the 13.6th percentile of its 52-week range creates genuine opportunistic buying incentives for industrial grinders and chocolate manufacturers who were severely margin-squeezed at the 2024-2025 peak prices — at $3,779 these buyers are structurally incentivized to rebuild forward cover. Low sugar prices compound this by improving confectionery production economics, making cocoa procurement more attractive. However, I discount the rule-based confidence materially because the 14d quant forecast (-11.08%) signals meaningful near-term pressure that the demand-scoring framework underweights, and demand destruction at prior highs ($8,000-10,000/MT range) likely still lingers in the form of reduced cocoa-content recipes and cautious procurement postures from major CPG buyers.
Global (sonnet-4.6)
Cocoa at 3779 likely reflects significant mean-reversion from 2024's supply-deficit-driven spike, and the technical structure confirms this: a death cross paired with negative MACD signals that the prior trend has definitively broken and sellers remain in control. June represents mid-crop harvest season in West Africa, which historically pressures prices as supply estimates crystallize — the -0.2% seasonal bias understates this structural headwind if Ghana/Ivory Coast output is recovering. The quant's conflicting 30-day +15.05% forecast is intriguing but may reflect mean-reversion noise rather than fundamental demand recovery; the -11.08% 14-day window is the more actionable near-term read.
Why this call
i

Low Price Production Disincentive

Why waiting may be better
i

14d Quant Bearish 11pct Override Risk

What to watch next
i

Mid Crop June Supply Flush Bearish Pressure

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
supply
↑Bullish
▸ details
demand
—Neutral
▸ details
global_commodity
—Neutral
▸ details
logistics
—Neutral
▸ details
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
14d Quant Bearish 11pct Override Risk
Mid Crop June Supply Flush Bearish Pressure
14d Quant Signal Negative 11pct Contradicts Near Term Demand Narrative
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Base scenario

Cocoa currently leans bullish.

Risk watch
14d Quant Bearish 11pct Override Risk
Mid Crop June Supply Flush Bearish Pressure
14d Quant Signal Negative 11pct Contradicts Near Term Demand Narrative
CC swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 10 active signals.
Chart

Market Chart

The chart is visual reference only; the actual call comes from the evidence and debate below.

Delayed data. Combine this chart with evidence and scorecard context.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Compare 7D, 14D, and 30D ranges in the same structure.

7d
$3,695.57
-12.68%
$3070.98 ~ $4317.41
14d
$3,293.50
-22.18%
$2660.62 ~ $3937.74
30d
$2,566.36
-39.36%
$1945.54 ~ $3238.65
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

This is where the system confirms, adjusts, or overrides the quant base case.

Decision
⇄ADJUST
Direction
↑Bullish
Consensus
56%
Score
+0.637
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

In crisis conditions, simulation becomes an extra decision layer.

Run
swarm_20260502_065255_cc
Direction
Bullish
Confidence
88.2%

CC swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 10 active signals.

다수 지역 홍수 (3개)ZC 52주 극단ZS 52주 극단
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for CC

CC
CC
CC
17%
Hit rate
AI Debate

AI Multi-Model Consensus

Cross-validated analysis from independent AI agents

▲

AI Verdict

Bullish

Confidence

47%

Agreement

54%

Agents

6/12

Vote Breakdown

Bullish
54%
Neutral
9%
Bearish
37%

Key Drivers

  • 1Low Price Production Disincentive
  • 2West Africa Input Underinvestment
  • 3Post Midcrop Seasonal Tightening
  • 452w Low Proximity Floor Signal
  • 5High Volatility Supply Disruption Risk

Key Risks

  • !14d Quant Bearish 11pct Override Risk
  • !Mid Crop June Supply Flush Bearish Pressure
  • !14d Quant Signal Negative 11pct Contradicts Near Term Demand Narrative
  • !Demand Destruction Legacy From 2024 Price Spike Recipe Reformulation And Reduced Cocoa Intensity Still Unwinding

Crew Analysis Summary

◈Supplysonnet-4.6

Cocoa at 14% of its 52-week range signals prices are deeply depressed, which historically suppresses West African farmer investment in inputs (fertilizer, crop protection) and reduces replanting...

◉Demandsonnet-4.6

Cocoa at the 13.6th percentile of its 52-week range creates genuine opportunistic buying incentives for industrial grinders and chocolate manufacturers who were severely margin-squeezed at the...

▲Globalsonnet-4.6

Cocoa at 3779 likely reflects significant mean-reversion from 2024's supply-deficit-driven spike, and the technical structure confirms this: a death cross paired with negative MACD signals that the...

⬡Logisticssonnet-4.6

Cocoa logistics are dominated by West African export corridors (Abidjan, Tema ports), and without confirmed port congestion or shipping disruptions on those lanes, the -11.08% 14-day decline is more...

Rule-based vs AI Verdictagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Remove shopping behavior and keep the page focused on evidence, scorecard validation, and chart execution.

Report
Open evidence report
Validation
Review scorecard and paper trading
Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-06-17$3909.73$3262.80$4552.25
2026-06-18$3868.83$3237.23$4527.56
2026-06-19$3801.56$3155.49$4407.59
2026-06-20$5080.71$4434.87$5754.18
2026-06-21$5039.14$4393.76$5710.41
2026-06-22$3702.55$3034.92$4267.45
2026-06-23$3695.57$3070.98$4317.41
2026-06-24$3620.44$2971.12$4222.16
2026-06-25$3556.00$2935.87$4165.81
2026-06-26$3466.52$2820.17$4125.45
2026-06-27$4725.23$4053.70$5357.66
2026-06-28$4665.43$4058.68$5320.70
2026-06-29$3313.19$2651.10$3937.08
2026-06-30$3293.50$2660.62$3937.74
E-E-A-T

Data Sources

USDA WASDENOAA ENSO/CFSv2CFTC COTNASA NDVIKAMISCME GroupFAO

Methodology: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Last updated:

CropCast v2.0 — AI Commodity Price Prediction Engine