Signal Detail

Cacao

Respuesta Rapida IA

Cacao (CC) 30-day outlook: Alcista. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: El Nino: drought risk in tropical producing regions. Quant 7d. Confidence 50%. (As of 2026-08-14)

CC
AlcistaOVERRIDE
Precio Actual
$5,786.00
+2.44%
Consenso
49%
Confianza
50%
Confianza de la decisión50%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
15/08/2026, 07:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -1.93%

Cacao muestra un sesgo alcista por ahora.

Revisa la evidencia y después sigue el escenario alcista de forma selectiva.

Summary

Lectura en lenguaje claro

Lee dirección, evidencia y riesgo antes de decidir cómo ejecutar.

Lectura rápida

Cacao muestra un sesgo alcista por ahora. Revisa la evidencia y después sigue el escenario alcista de forma selectiva.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
15/08/2026, 07:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -1.93%
Evidence basis
Oferta
[Supply Crew / CC] El Nino: drought risk in tropical producing regions. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-1.9%), supply pressure easing. Strong positive trend (slope: 5.02). High volatility (53%): potential supply-chain disruption
Demanda
[Demand Crew / CC] Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). High sugar prices pressure confectionery margins, reducing cocoa demand. Quant 7d: bearish (-1.9%), consistent with demand softness
Macro
[Macro Crew / CC] EXTREME volatility regime (53%): market dislocation, mean reversion likely. Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bearish (-1.9%), macro alignment
Por qué esta lectura
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Por qué puede ser mejor esperar
i

Even on a bullish call, remaining risks mean waiting for confirmation can still be cleaner than chasing.

Qué vigilar después
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Escenario base

Cacao muestra un sesgo alcista por ahora.

Riesgo
No hay grandes desacuerdos ahora mismo.
CC swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 10 active signals.
Chart

Gráfico de Mercado

El gráfico es solo referencia visual; la decisión real sale de la evidencia y del debate inferior.

Datos con retraso. Combina el gráfico con evidencia y scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Compara 7D, 14D y 30D con la misma estructura.

7d
$5,674.33
-1.93%
$5011.52 ~ $6343.84
14d
$5,760.82
-0.44%
$5113.82 ~ $6398.67
30d
$5,913.24
+2.20%
$5233.54 ~ $6585.22
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Aquí el sistema confirma, ajusta o revierte la tesis base del quant.

Decision
OVERRIDE
Direction
Alcista
Consensus
49%
Score
+0.455
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

En crisis, la simulación agrega una capa extra de decisión.

Run
swarm_20260814_070342_cc
Direction
Alcista
Confidence
90.8%

CC swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 10 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (2개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for CC

CC
25%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Consenso Multi-IA

Análisis cruzado de agentes de IA independientes

Veredicto IA

Alcista

Confianza

34%

Acuerdo

42%

Agents

12/12

Votación

Alcista
42%
Neutral
38%
Bajista
19%

Factores clave

  • 1Broad Commodity Golden Crosses Signal Weak Dollar Regime
  • 2Crisis Extreme Reading Supports Real Asset Hoarding
  • 3Extreme Volatility Raises Mean Reversion Odds Either Direction
  • 4Conflicting Forecast Horizons
  • 5Missing Direct Macro Indicators

Riesgos clave

  • !Quant 7d Momentum Bearish At -1.9pct Directly Conflicts With Macro Bullish Call
  • !Extreme Volatility Regime Could Resolve Downward Just As Easily As Upward If Dollar Strengthens On Fed Hawkishness
  • !Short Term Quant Decline
  • !Cocoa Specific Supply Shocks

Resumen por Equipo

Macrosonnet-4.6

Broad commodity-complex momentum (7 golden crosses) alongside a crisis-extreme reading points to flight-to-real-assets positioning that typically accompanies a weakening or uncertain USD/DXY backdrop...

Macrogpt-5.4

The bearish 7-day quant forecast conflicts with a modestly bullish 30-day outlook, while the supplied macro data lacks direct evidence on DXY, energy prices, central-bank policy, tariffs, or...

Supplysonnet-4.6

El Niño-driven drought/heat stress in West Africa (Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana account for ~60% of global supply) keeps stocks-to-use structurally tight after two consecutive deficit seasons, and that...

Supplygpt-5.4

The El Niño drought signal creates upside supply risk for tropical cocoa production, but no region-specific rainfall, NDVI, crop-condition, production, or stocks data confirms an active shortage.

Reglas vs IAagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Quita el comportamiento de compra y deja la página enfocada en evidencia, scorecard y ejecución por gráfico.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-08-15$5976.49$5298.29$6624.38
2026-08-16$5994.54$5298.94$6705.31
2026-08-17$5629.14$4932.59$6336.34
2026-08-18$5670.33$4981.71$6329.30
2026-08-19$5685.54$5046.67$6362.99
2026-08-20$5682.33$5009.19$6362.15
2026-08-21$5674.33$5011.52$6343.84
2026-08-22$6092.61$5402.17$6729.37
2026-08-23$6107.01$5456.44$6758.52
2026-08-24$5737.68$5083.10$6424.33
2026-08-25$5774.50$5074.36$6430.70
2026-08-26$5784.71$5110.58$6428.70
2026-08-27$5775.66$5095.89$6461.72
2026-08-28$5760.82$5113.82$6398.67
E-E-A-T

Fuentes de Datos

Metodologia: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Ultima actualizacion:

CropCast v2.0 — Motor de Predicción de Precios con IA