Signal Detail

Cacao

Respuesta Rapida IA

Cacao (CC) 30-day outlook: Alcista. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+0.7%), supply may be tightening.. Confidence 70%. (As of 2026-06-17)

CC
AlcistaADJUST
Precio Actual
$4,232.00
+9.02%
Consenso
56%
Confianza
70%
Confianza de la decisión70%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
17/06/2026, 03:05 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -12.68%

Cacao muestra un sesgo alcista por ahora.

Revisa la evidencia y después sigue el escenario alcista de forma selectiva.

Summary

Lectura en lenguaje claro

Lee dirección, evidencia y riesgo antes de decidir cómo ejecutar.

Lectura rápida

Cacao muestra un sesgo alcista por ahora. Revisa la evidencia y después sigue el escenario alcista de forma selectiva.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
17/06/2026, 03:05 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -12.68%
Evidence basis
Oferta
[Supply Crew / CC] Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+0.7%), supply may be tightening. Strong negative trend (slope: -14.31). Wide CI range (36%): high supply uncertainty. 52w position 14%: low prices likely reducing production incentives. High volatility (56%): potential supply-chain disruption
Demanda
[Demand Crew / CC] Price at 13.6th percentile of 52w range — below-average pricing supports downstream demand recovery. Low sugar prices support chocolate production margins, bullish cocoa demand. Quant 7d: bullish (+0.7%), consistent with demand strength
Macro
[Macro Crew / CC] EXTREME volatility regime (56%): market dislocation, mean reversion likely. Broad momentum: 8 golden crosses across commodities. Intelligence: 5 geopolitical signals (risk-on for commodities). EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bullish (+0.7%), macro alignment
Por qué esta lectura
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Por qué puede ser mejor esperar
i

Even on a bullish call, remaining risks mean waiting for confirmation can still be cleaner than chasing.

Qué vigilar después
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Escenario base

Cacao muestra un sesgo alcista por ahora.

Riesgo
No hay grandes desacuerdos ahora mismo.
CC swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 10 active signals.
Chart

Gráfico de Mercado

El gráfico es solo referencia visual; la decisión real sale de la evidencia y del debate inferior.

Datos con retraso. Combina el gráfico con evidencia y scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Compara 7D, 14D y 30D con la misma estructura.

7d
$3,695.57
-12.68%
$3070.98 ~ $4317.41
14d
$3,293.50
-22.18%
$2660.62 ~ $3937.74
30d
$2,566.36
-39.36%
$1945.54 ~ $3238.65
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Aquí el sistema confirma, ajusta o revierte la tesis base del quant.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Alcista
Consensus
56%
Score
+0.637
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

En crisis, la simulación agrega una capa extra de decisión.

Run
swarm_20260502_065255_cc
Direction
Alcista
Confidence
88.2%

CC swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 10 active signals.

다수 지역 홍수 (3개)ZC 52주 극단ZS 52주 극단
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for CC

CC
CC
CC
17%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Consenso Multi-IA

Análisis cruzado de agentes de IA independientes

Veredicto IA

Alcista

Confianza

47%

Acuerdo

54%

Agents

6/12

Votación

Alcista
54%
Neutral
9%
Bajista
37%

Factores clave

  • 1Low Price Production Disincentive
  • 2West Africa Input Underinvestment
  • 3Post Midcrop Seasonal Tightening
  • 452w Low Proximity Floor Signal
  • 5High Volatility Supply Disruption Risk

Riesgos clave

  • !14d Quant Bearish 11pct Override Risk
  • !Mid Crop June Supply Flush Bearish Pressure
  • !14d Quant Signal Negative 11pct Contradicts Near Term Demand Narrative
  • !Demand Destruction Legacy From 2024 Price Spike Recipe Reformulation And Reduced Cocoa Intensity Still Unwinding

Resumen por Equipo

Supplysonnet-4.6

Cocoa at 14% of its 52-week range signals prices are deeply depressed, which historically suppresses West African farmer investment in inputs (fertilizer, crop protection) and reduces replanting...

Demandsonnet-4.6

Cocoa at the 13.6th percentile of its 52-week range creates genuine opportunistic buying incentives for industrial grinders and chocolate manufacturers who were severely margin-squeezed at the...

Globalsonnet-4.6

Cocoa at 3779 likely reflects significant mean-reversion from 2024's supply-deficit-driven spike, and the technical structure confirms this: a death cross paired with negative MACD signals that the...

Logisticssonnet-4.6

Cocoa logistics are dominated by West African export corridors (Abidjan, Tema ports), and without confirmed port congestion or shipping disruptions on those lanes, the -11.08% 14-day decline is more...

Reglas vs IAagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Quita el comportamiento de compra y deja la página enfocada en evidencia, scorecard y ejecución por gráfico.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-06-17$3909.73$3262.80$4552.25
2026-06-18$3868.83$3237.23$4527.56
2026-06-19$3801.56$3155.49$4407.59
2026-06-20$5080.71$4434.87$5754.18
2026-06-21$5039.14$4393.76$5710.41
2026-06-22$3702.55$3034.92$4267.45
2026-06-23$3695.57$3070.98$4317.41
2026-06-24$3620.44$2971.12$4222.16
2026-06-25$3556.00$2935.87$4165.81
2026-06-26$3466.52$2820.17$4125.45
2026-06-27$4725.23$4053.70$5357.66
2026-06-28$4665.43$4058.68$5320.70
2026-06-29$3313.19$2651.10$3937.08
2026-06-30$3293.50$2660.62$3937.74
E-E-A-T

Fuentes de Datos

Metodologia: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Ultima actualizacion:

CropCast v2.0 — Motor de Predicción de Precios con IA