Signal Detail

كاكاو

اجابة AI السريعة

كاكاو (CC) 30-day outlook: صعود. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: El Nino: drought risk in tropical producing regions. Quant 7d. Confidence 50%. (As of 2026-08-14)

CC
صعودOVERRIDE
السعر الحالي
$5,786.00
+2.44%
مستوى الإجماع
49%
مستوى الثقة
50%
ثقة القرار50%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
١٥‏/٠٨‏/٢٠٢٦، ٠٧:٠٦ ص (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -1.93%

كاكاو يميل حالياً إلى الاتجاه الصاعد.

راجع الأدلة أولاً ثم اتبع السيناريو الصاعد بشكل انتقائي.

Summary

قراءة مبسطة

اقرأ الاتجاه والدليل والمخاطر أولاً ثم قرر كيف تنفذ.

قراءة سريعة

كاكاو يميل حالياً إلى الاتجاه الصاعد. راجع الأدلة أولاً ثم اتبع السيناريو الصاعد بشكل انتقائي.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
١٥‏/٠٨‏/٢٠٢٦، ٠٧:٠٦ ص (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -1.93%
Evidence basis
العرض
[Supply Crew / CC] El Nino: drought risk in tropical producing regions. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-1.9%), supply pressure easing. Strong positive trend (slope: 5.02). High volatility (53%): potential supply-chain disruption
الطلب
[Demand Crew / CC] Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). High sugar prices pressure confectionery margins, reducing cocoa demand. Quant 7d: bearish (-1.9%), consistent with demand softness
الماكرو
[Macro Crew / CC] EXTREME volatility regime (53%): market dislocation, mean reversion likely. Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bearish (-1.9%), macro alignment
لماذا هذا الحكم
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

لماذا قد يكون الانتظار أفضل
i

Even on a bullish call, remaining risks mean waiting for confirmation can still be cleaner than chasing.

ما الذي نتابعه بعد ذلك
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
السيناريو الأساسي

كاكاو يميل حالياً إلى الاتجاه الصاعد.

مراقبة المخاطر
لا توجد حالياً خلافات كبيرة.
CC swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 10 active signals.
Chart

مخطط السوق

المخطط مرجع بصري فقط؛ أما القرار الحقيقي فيأتي من الأدلة و debate أدناه.

البيانات متأخرة. راجع الأدلة وبطاقة الأداء معاً قبل القرار.
Quant

Quant Forecast

قارن نطاقات 7D و14D و30D في البنية نفسها.

7d
$5,674.33
-1.93%
$5011.52 ~ $6343.84
14d
$5,760.82
-0.44%
$5113.82 ~ $6398.67
30d
$5,913.24
+2.20%
$5233.54 ~ $6585.22
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

هنا تؤكد المنظومة أو تعدل أو تعكس قاعدة quant الأساسية.

Decision
OVERRIDE
Direction
صعود
Consensus
49%
Score
+0.455
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

في ظروف الأزمة تصبح المحاكاة طبقة قرار إضافية.

Run
swarm_20260814_070342_cc
Direction
صعود
Confidence
90.8%

CC swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 10 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (2개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for CC

CC
25%
Hit rate
AI Debate

إجماع AI متعدد

تحليل متقاطع من وكلاء AI مستقلين

حكم AI

صعودي

الثقة

34%

إجماع

42%

Agents

12/12

توزيع الأصوات

صعودي
42%
محايد
38%
هبوطي
19%

العوامل الرئيسية

  • 1Broad Commodity Golden Crosses Signal Weak Dollar Regime
  • 2Crisis Extreme Reading Supports Real Asset Hoarding
  • 3Extreme Volatility Raises Mean Reversion Odds Either Direction
  • 4Conflicting Forecast Horizons
  • 5Missing Direct Macro Indicators

المخاطر الرئيسية

  • !Quant 7d Momentum Bearish At -1.9pct Directly Conflicts With Macro Bullish Call
  • !Extreme Volatility Regime Could Resolve Downward Just As Easily As Upward If Dollar Strengthens On Fed Hawkishness
  • !Short Term Quant Decline
  • !Cocoa Specific Supply Shocks

ملخص تحليل الطاقم

Macrosonnet-4.6

Broad commodity-complex momentum (7 golden crosses) alongside a crisis-extreme reading points to flight-to-real-assets positioning that typically accompanies a weakening or uncertain USD/DXY backdrop...

Macrogpt-5.4

The bearish 7-day quant forecast conflicts with a modestly bullish 30-day outlook, while the supplied macro data lacks direct evidence on DXY, energy prices, central-bank policy, tariffs, or...

Supplysonnet-4.6

El Niño-driven drought/heat stress in West Africa (Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana account for ~60% of global supply) keeps stocks-to-use structurally tight after two consecutive deficit seasons, and that...

Supplygpt-5.4

The El Niño drought signal creates upside supply risk for tropical cocoa production, but no region-specific rainfall, NDVI, crop-condition, production, or stocks data confirms an active shortage.

القواعد مقابل AIagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

أزل سلوك التسوق وأبق الصفحة مركزة على الأدلة والتحقق والتنفيذ عبر الرسم البياني.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-08-15$5976.49$5298.29$6624.38
2026-08-16$5994.54$5298.94$6705.31
2026-08-17$5629.14$4932.59$6336.34
2026-08-18$5670.33$4981.71$6329.30
2026-08-19$5685.54$5046.67$6362.99
2026-08-20$5682.33$5009.19$6362.15
2026-08-21$5674.33$5011.52$6343.84
2026-08-22$6092.61$5402.17$6729.37
2026-08-23$6107.01$5456.44$6758.52
2026-08-24$5737.68$5083.10$6424.33
2026-08-25$5774.50$5074.36$6430.70
2026-08-26$5784.71$5110.58$6428.70
2026-08-27$5775.66$5095.89$6461.72
2026-08-28$5760.82$5113.82$6398.67
E-E-A-T

مصادر البيانات

المنهجية: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

اخر تحديث:

CropCast v2.0 — محرك تنبؤات أسعار السلع بالذكاء الاصطناعي