Signal Detail

Cacau

Resposta Rapida IA

Cacau (CC) 30-day outlook: Alta. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: El Nino: drought risk in tropical producing regions. Quant 7d. Confidence 50%. (As of 2026-08-14)

CC
AltaOVERRIDE
Preço Atual
$5,786.00
+2.44%
Consenso
49%
Confiança
50%
Confiança da decisão50%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
15/08/2026, 07:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -1.93%

Cacau está com viés altista no momento.

Revise a evidência e então siga o cenário altista de forma seletiva.

Summary

Leitura em linguagem simples

Leia direção, evidência e risco antes de decidir como executar.

Leitura rápida

Cacau está com viés altista no momento. Revise a evidência e então siga o cenário altista de forma seletiva.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
15/08/2026, 07:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -1.93%
Evidence basis
Oferta
[Supply Crew / CC] El Nino: drought risk in tropical producing regions. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-1.9%), supply pressure easing. Strong positive trend (slope: 5.02). High volatility (53%): potential supply-chain disruption
Demanda
[Demand Crew / CC] Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). High sugar prices pressure confectionery margins, reducing cocoa demand. Quant 7d: bearish (-1.9%), consistent with demand softness
Macro
[Macro Crew / CC] EXTREME volatility regime (53%): market dislocation, mean reversion likely. Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bearish (-1.9%), macro alignment
Por que essa leitura
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Por que esperar pode ser melhor
i

Even on a bullish call, remaining risks mean waiting for confirmation can still be cleaner than chasing.

O que observar a seguir
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Cenário base

Cacau está com viés altista no momento.

Risco
Não há grande divergência no momento.
CC swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 10 active signals.
Chart

Gráfico de Mercado

O gráfico é apenas referência visual; a chamada real vem da evidência e do debate abaixo.

Dados com atraso. Combine o gráfico com evidência e scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Compare 7D, 14D e 30D na mesma estrutura.

7d
$5,674.33
-1.93%
$5011.52 ~ $6343.84
14d
$5,760.82
-0.44%
$5113.82 ~ $6398.67
30d
$5,913.24
+2.20%
$5233.54 ~ $6585.22
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Aqui o sistema confirma, ajusta ou substitui a tese base do quant.

Decision
OVERRIDE
Direction
Alta
Consensus
49%
Score
+0.455
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

Em crise, a simulação vira uma camada extra de decisão.

Run
swarm_20260814_070342_cc
Direction
Alta
Confidence
90.8%

CC swarm simulation under high: double_up bias with 10 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (2개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for CC

CC
25%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Consenso Multi-IA

Análise cruzada de agentes de IA independentes

Veredicto IA

Alta

Confiança

34%

Acordo

42%

Agents

12/12

Votação

Alta
42%
Neutro
38%
Baixa
19%

Fatores-chave

  • 1Broad Commodity Golden Crosses Signal Weak Dollar Regime
  • 2Crisis Extreme Reading Supports Real Asset Hoarding
  • 3Extreme Volatility Raises Mean Reversion Odds Either Direction
  • 4Conflicting Forecast Horizons
  • 5Missing Direct Macro Indicators

Riscos-chave

  • !Quant 7d Momentum Bearish At -1.9pct Directly Conflicts With Macro Bullish Call
  • !Extreme Volatility Regime Could Resolve Downward Just As Easily As Upward If Dollar Strengthens On Fed Hawkishness
  • !Short Term Quant Decline
  • !Cocoa Specific Supply Shocks

Resumo por Equipe

Macrosonnet-4.6

Broad commodity-complex momentum (7 golden crosses) alongside a crisis-extreme reading points to flight-to-real-assets positioning that typically accompanies a weakening or uncertain USD/DXY backdrop...

Macrogpt-5.4

The bearish 7-day quant forecast conflicts with a modestly bullish 30-day outlook, while the supplied macro data lacks direct evidence on DXY, energy prices, central-bank policy, tariffs, or...

Supplysonnet-4.6

El Niño-driven drought/heat stress in West Africa (Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana account for ~60% of global supply) keeps stocks-to-use structurally tight after two consecutive deficit seasons, and that...

Supplygpt-5.4

The El Niño drought signal creates upside supply risk for tropical cocoa production, but no region-specific rainfall, NDVI, crop-condition, production, or stocks data confirms an active shortage.

Regras vs IAagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Remova o comportamento de compra e mantenha a página focada em evidência, scorecard e execução no gráfico.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-08-15$5976.49$5298.29$6624.38
2026-08-16$5994.54$5298.94$6705.31
2026-08-17$5629.14$4932.59$6336.34
2026-08-18$5670.33$4981.71$6329.30
2026-08-19$5685.54$5046.67$6362.99
2026-08-20$5682.33$5009.19$6362.15
2026-08-21$5674.33$5011.52$6343.84
2026-08-22$6092.61$5402.17$6729.37
2026-08-23$6107.01$5456.44$6758.52
2026-08-24$5737.68$5083.10$6424.33
2026-08-25$5774.50$5074.36$6430.70
2026-08-26$5784.71$5110.58$6428.70
2026-08-27$5775.66$5095.89$6461.72
2026-08-28$5760.82$5113.82$6398.67
E-E-A-T

Fontes de Dados

Metodologia: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Ultima atualizacao:

CropCast v2.0 — Motor de Previsão de Preços de Commodities com IA