Почему цена Соя боковик？

[Supply Crew / ZS] Weather alert: DROUGHT_RISK in brazil_mt threatens ZS supply. Heat stress risk in brazil_mt: avg max temp 36.0C. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-0.8%), supply pressure easing. Seasonal: month 8 is typically a tight-supply period for ZS; [Demand Crew / ZS] HE at 52w 12%: unprofitable feeding reduces ZS demand. Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Price at 77.0th percentile of 52w range — moderately elevated, beginning to pressure downstream margins. Quant 7d: bearish (-0.8%), consistent with demand softness

Прогноз цены Соя на 30 дней?

30-day forecast: $1195.30 (+0.34%), range: $1162.04–$1228.61.

Как начать торговать фьючерсами на Соя?

Соя (ZS) futures trade on CME/ICE. Review CropCast evidence and scorecard, then execute via a charting platform like TradingView.

Какие факторы влияют на цену Соя?

Key factors include USDA stock reports, NOAA weather forecasts, CFTC COT positioning, NASA NDVI crop health, FX rates, and energy prices.

Какова точность прогнозов CropCast для Соя?

Hit rate: 73.1% (98/134). Wrong calls stay visible.

Прогноз цены Соя 2026 — ИИ

—Боковик⇄ADJUST

Текущая цена

$1,191.25

+1.97%

Консенсус

51%

Уверенность

68%

Уверенность решения68%

Main report time

Market snapshot time

15.08.2026, 07:06 (UTC)

Quant basis

7D bearish · -0.76%

Соя пока не показывает явного преимущества по направлению.

Пока уверенность не вырастет, режим наблюдения выглядит чище.

Daily report Scorecard

Summary

Простое объяснение сигнала

Сначала прочитайте направление, доказательства и риск, а потом решайте, как исполнять.

Быстрый вывод

Соя пока не показывает явного преимущества по направлению. Пока уверенность не вырастет, режим наблюдения выглядит чище.

Judgment basis

Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.

Main report time

Market snapshot time

15.08.2026, 07:06 (UTC)

Quant basis

7D bearish · -0.76%

Evidence basis

Предложение

[Supply Crew / ZS] Weather alert: DROUGHT_RISK in brazil_mt threatens ZS supply. Heat stress risk in brazil_mt: avg max temp 36.0C. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-0.8%), supply pressure easing. Seasonal: month 8 is typically a tight-supply period for ZS

Спрос

[Demand Crew / ZS] HE at 52w 12%: unprofitable feeding reduces ZS demand. Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Price at 77.0th percentile of 52w range — moderately elevated, beginning to pressure downstream margins. Quant 7d: bearish (-0.8%), consistent with demand softness

Макро

[Macro Crew / ZS] Natural gas at 52w 4%: fertilizer costs low. Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. Intelligence sentiment: 4 bullish vs 0 bearish. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bearish (-0.8%), macro alignment

Почему такой вывод

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Почему ждать может быть лучше

Пока уверенность не вырастет, режим наблюдения выглядит чище.

Что смотреть дальше

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Market regime

Event-wait / neutral regime

Event context

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Disagreement diagnosis

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence

Deferred evidence

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Базовый сценарий

Соя пока не показывает явного преимущества по направлению.

Риск-контроль

Сейчас значимых разногласий нет.

ZS swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 6 active signals.

Chart

Рыночный график

График служит только визуальной опорой; реальный вывод формируется из доказательств и debate ниже.

Данные с задержкой. Сверяйте решение с доказательствами и scorecard.

Quant

Quant Forecast

Сравните 7D, 14D и 30D в одной структуре.

$1,182.16

-0.76%

$1150.65 ~ $1213.97

14d

$1,195.38

+0.35%

$1162.32 ~ $1230.45

30d

$1,195.30

+0.34%

$1162.04 ~ $1228.61

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Здесь система подтверждает, корректирует или переворачивает quant base case.

Decision

⇄ADJUST

Direction

—Боковик

Consensus

51%

Score

+0.023

Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

В кризисе simulation становится дополнительным уровнем решения.

Run

swarm_20260714_211003_zs

Direction

Падение

Confidence

81.2%

ZS swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 6 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (1개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO

Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for ZS

73%

Hit rate

AI Debate

AI Мульти-модель

Перекрёстная проверка независимыми AI

—

Вердикт AI

Нейтр.

Уверен.

34%

Согласие

35%

Agents

12/12

Голосование

Бычий

32%

Нейтр.

35%

Медвежий

34%

Ключ. факторы

1Enso El Nino Supply Side
2ZS ZC Relative Weakness
3Conflicting Quant Horizon Signals
4Seasonal August Bearish Bias
5Negative Macd

Осн. риски

!Golden Cross Uptrend Could Reassert If Export Demand Surprises
!Black Sea Or South America Logistics Shock Could Reverse Supply Narrative Quickly
!Bullish Moving Average Structure
!Tight Physical Market Proxy

Анализ по группам

▲Глобал.sonnet-4.6

El Nino conditions favor US soybean yields into a period of already-ample South American supply, and the ZS/ZC divergence (soy lagging corn by 6pp) reads as relative weakness in bean demand/crush...

▲Глобал.gpt-5.4

Near-term momentum and the 7-day quant forecast favor modest downside, while soybean underperformance versus corn reinforces relative weakness.

◉Спросsonnet-4.6

Weak hog margins (HE at just 12th percentile of its 52w range) directly compress soymeal feed demand, the primary channel through which ZS demand softens, and this aligns with the quant model's 7d...

◉Спросgpt-5.4

Weak livestock-feed economics and a price at the 77th percentile of its 52-week range point to demand rationing, supporting modest near-term downside.

Правила vs AIagree

Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Уберите shopping-логику и сфокусируйте страницу на доказательствах, scorecard и chart execution.

Report

Открыть отчет с основаниями

Validation

Открыть scorecard и paper trading

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

Date	Forecast	Low	High
2026-08-15	$1145.16	$1112.64	$1178.19
2026-08-16	$1147.42	$1116.47	$1177.77
2026-08-17	$1172.14	$1138.80	$1206.13
2026-08-18	$1174.55	$1143.07	$1205.76
2026-08-19	$1176.79	$1146.27	$1209.18
2026-08-20	$1179.20	$1146.98	$1212.83
2026-08-21	$1182.16	$1150.65	$1213.97
2026-08-22	$1161.51	$1130.07	$1195.70
2026-08-23	$1163.66	$1127.89	$1196.97
2026-08-24	$1188.06	$1155.84	$1219.96
2026-08-25	$1189.98	$1156.61	$1224.05
2026-08-26	$1191.58	$1160.41	$1223.37
2026-08-27	$1193.24	$1159.63	$1227.03
2026-08-28	$1195.38	$1162.32	$1230.45

E-E-A-T

Источники данных

USDA WASDE NOAA ENSO/CFSv2 CFTC COT NASA NDVI KAMIS CME Group FAO

Методология: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Обновлено: 15.08.2026, 07:06 (UTC)