Por que o preco do Soja esta em Neutro?

[Supply Crew / ZS] Weather alert: DROUGHT_RISK in brazil_mt threatens ZS supply. Heat stress risk in brazil_mt: avg max temp 36.0C. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-0.8%), supply pressure easing. Seasonal: month 8 is typically a tight-supply period for ZS; [Demand Crew / ZS] HE at 52w 12%: unprofitable feeding reduces ZS demand. Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Price at 77.0th percentile of 52w range — moderately elevated, beginning to pressure downstream margins. Quant 7d: bearish (-0.8%), consistent with demand softness

Qual a previsao de preco do Soja em 30 dias?

30-day forecast: $1195.30 (+0.34%), range: $1162.04–$1228.61.

Como comecar a negociar futuros de Soja?

Soja (ZS) futures trade on CME/ICE. Review CropCast evidence and scorecard, then execute via a charting platform like TradingView.

Quais fatores influenciam o preco do Soja?

Key factors include USDA stock reports, NOAA weather forecasts, CFTC COT positioning, NASA NDVI crop health, FX rates, and energy prices.

Qual a precisao das previsoes do CropCast para Soja?

Hit rate: 73.1% (98/134). Wrong calls stay visible.

Previsão de Preço Soja 2026 — IA

—Neutro⇄ADJUST

Preço Atual

$1,191.25

+1.97%

Consenso

51%

Confiança

68%

Confiança da decisão68%

Main report time

Market snapshot time

15/08/2026, 07:06 (UTC)

Quant basis

7D bearish · -0.76%

Soja ainda não mostra uma vantagem direcional clara.

Enquanto a convicção não sobe, observar é a escolha mais limpa.

Relatório diário Scorecard

Summary

Leitura em linguagem simples

Leia direção, evidência e risco antes de decidir como executar.

Leitura rápida

Soja ainda não mostra uma vantagem direcional clara. Enquanto a convicção não sobe, observar é a escolha mais limpa.

Judgment basis

Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.

Main report time

Market snapshot time

15/08/2026, 07:06 (UTC)

Quant basis

7D bearish · -0.76%

Evidence basis

Oferta

[Supply Crew / ZS] Weather alert: DROUGHT_RISK in brazil_mt threatens ZS supply. Heat stress risk in brazil_mt: avg max temp 36.0C. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-0.8%), supply pressure easing. Seasonal: month 8 is typically a tight-supply period for ZS

Demanda

[Demand Crew / ZS] HE at 52w 12%: unprofitable feeding reduces ZS demand. Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Price at 77.0th percentile of 52w range — moderately elevated, beginning to pressure downstream margins. Quant 7d: bearish (-0.8%), consistent with demand softness

Macro

[Macro Crew / ZS] Natural gas at 52w 4%: fertilizer costs low. Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. Intelligence sentiment: 4 bullish vs 0 bearish. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bearish (-0.8%), macro alignment

Por que essa leitura

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Por que esperar pode ser melhor

Enquanto a convicção não sobe, observar é a escolha mais limpa.

O que observar a seguir

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Market regime

Event-wait / neutral regime

Event context

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Disagreement diagnosis

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence

Deferred evidence

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Cenário base

Soja ainda não mostra uma vantagem direcional clara.

Risco

Não há grande divergência no momento.

ZS swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 6 active signals.

Chart

Gráfico de Mercado

O gráfico é apenas referência visual; a chamada real vem da evidência e do debate abaixo.

Dados com atraso. Combine o gráfico com evidência e scorecard.

Quant

Quant Forecast

Compare 7D, 14D e 30D na mesma estrutura.

$1,182.16

-0.76%

$1150.65 ~ $1213.97

14d

$1,195.38

+0.35%

$1162.32 ~ $1230.45

30d

$1,195.30

+0.34%

$1162.04 ~ $1228.61

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Aqui o sistema confirma, ajusta ou substitui a tese base do quant.

Decision

⇄ADJUST

Direction

—Neutro

Consensus

51%

Score

+0.023

Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

Em crise, a simulação vira uma camada extra de decisão.

Run

swarm_20260714_211003_zs

Direction

Baixa

Confidence

81.2%

ZS swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 6 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (1개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO

Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for ZS

73%

Hit rate

AI Debate

Consenso Multi-IA

Análise cruzada de agentes de IA independentes

—

Veredicto IA

Neutro

Confiança

34%

Acordo

35%

Agents

12/12

Votação

Alta

32%

Neutro

35%

Baixa

34%

Fatores-chave

1Enso El Nino Supply Side
2ZS ZC Relative Weakness
3Conflicting Quant Horizon Signals
4Seasonal August Bearish Bias
5Negative Macd

Riscos-chave

!Golden Cross Uptrend Could Reassert If Export Demand Surprises
!Black Sea Or South America Logistics Shock Could Reverse Supply Narrative Quickly
!Bullish Moving Average Structure
!Tight Physical Market Proxy

Resumo por Equipe

▲Globalsonnet-4.6

El Nino conditions favor US soybean yields into a period of already-ample South American supply, and the ZS/ZC divergence (soy lagging corn by 6pp) reads as relative weakness in bean demand/crush...

▲Globalgpt-5.4

Near-term momentum and the 7-day quant forecast favor modest downside, while soybean underperformance versus corn reinforces relative weakness.

◉Demandsonnet-4.6

Weak hog margins (HE at just 12th percentile of its 52w range) directly compress soymeal feed demand, the primary channel through which ZS demand softens, and this aligns with the quant model's 7d...

◉Demandgpt-5.4

Weak livestock-feed economics and a price at the 77th percentile of its 52-week range point to demand rationing, supporting modest near-term downside.

Regras vs IAagree

Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Remova o comportamento de compra e mantenha a página focada em evidência, scorecard e execução no gráfico.

Report

Abrir relatório de evidência

Validation

Ver scorecard e paper trading

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

Date	Forecast	Low	High
2026-08-15	$1145.16	$1112.64	$1178.19
2026-08-16	$1147.42	$1116.47	$1177.77
2026-08-17	$1172.14	$1138.80	$1206.13
2026-08-18	$1174.55	$1143.07	$1205.76
2026-08-19	$1176.79	$1146.27	$1209.18
2026-08-20	$1179.20	$1146.98	$1212.83
2026-08-21	$1182.16	$1150.65	$1213.97
2026-08-22	$1161.51	$1130.07	$1195.70
2026-08-23	$1163.66	$1127.89	$1196.97
2026-08-24	$1188.06	$1155.84	$1219.96
2026-08-25	$1189.98	$1156.61	$1224.05
2026-08-26	$1191.58	$1160.41	$1223.37
2026-08-27	$1193.24	$1159.63	$1227.03
2026-08-28	$1195.38	$1162.32	$1230.45

E-E-A-T

Fontes de Dados

USDA WASDE NOAA ENSO/CFSv2 CFTC COT NASA NDVI KAMIS CME Group FAO

Metodologia: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Ultima atualizacao: 15/08/2026, 07:06 (UTC)