Por que el precio de Soja esta en Neutral?

[Supply Crew / ZS] Weather alert: DROUGHT_RISK in brazil_mt threatens ZS supply. Heat stress risk in brazil_mt: avg max temp 36.0C. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-0.8%), supply pressure easing. Seasonal: month 8 is typically a tight-supply period for ZS; [Demand Crew / ZS] HE at 52w 12%: unprofitable feeding reduces ZS demand. Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Price at 77.0th percentile of 52w range — moderately elevated, beginning to pressure downstream margins. Quant 7d: bearish (-0.8%), consistent with demand softness

Cual es el pronostico del precio de Soja en 30 dias?

30-day forecast: $1195.30 (+0.34%), range: $1162.04–$1228.61.

Como empezar a operar futuros de Soja?

Soja (ZS) futures trade on CME/ICE. Review CropCast evidence and scorecard, then execute via a charting platform like TradingView.

Que factores afectan el precio de Soja?

Key factors include USDA stock reports, NOAA weather forecasts, CFTC COT positioning, NASA NDVI crop health, FX rates, and energy prices.

Cual es la precision de las predicciones de CropCast para Soja?

Hit rate: 73.1% (98/134). Wrong calls stay visible.

Pronóstico de Precio Soja 2026 — IA

—Neutral⇄ADJUST

Precio Actual

$1,191.25

+1.97%

Consenso

51%

Confianza

68%

Confianza de la decisión68%

Main report time

Market snapshot time

15/08/2026, 07:06 (UTC)

Quant basis

7D bearish · -0.76%

Soja todavía no muestra una ventaja direccional clara.

Hasta que suba la convicción, lo más limpio es observar.

Informe diario Scorecard

Summary

Lectura en lenguaje claro

Lee dirección, evidencia y riesgo antes de decidir cómo ejecutar.

Lectura rápida

Soja todavía no muestra una ventaja direccional clara. Hasta que suba la convicción, lo más limpio es observar.

Judgment basis

Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.

Main report time

Market snapshot time

15/08/2026, 07:06 (UTC)

Quant basis

7D bearish · -0.76%

Evidence basis

Oferta

[Supply Crew / ZS] Weather alert: DROUGHT_RISK in brazil_mt threatens ZS supply. Heat stress risk in brazil_mt: avg max temp 36.0C. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-0.8%), supply pressure easing. Seasonal: month 8 is typically a tight-supply period for ZS

Demanda

[Demand Crew / ZS] HE at 52w 12%: unprofitable feeding reduces ZS demand. Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Price at 77.0th percentile of 52w range — moderately elevated, beginning to pressure downstream margins. Quant 7d: bearish (-0.8%), consistent with demand softness

Macro

[Macro Crew / ZS] Natural gas at 52w 4%: fertilizer costs low. Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. Intelligence sentiment: 4 bullish vs 0 bearish. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bearish (-0.8%), macro alignment

Por qué esta lectura

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Por qué puede ser mejor esperar

Hasta que suba la convicción, lo más limpio es observar.

Qué vigilar después

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Market regime

Event-wait / neutral regime

Event context

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Disagreement diagnosis

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence

Deferred evidence

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Escenario base

Soja todavía no muestra una ventaja direccional clara.

Riesgo

No hay grandes desacuerdos ahora mismo.

ZS swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 6 active signals.

Chart

Gráfico de Mercado

El gráfico es solo referencia visual; la decisión real sale de la evidencia y del debate inferior.

Datos con retraso. Combina el gráfico con evidencia y scorecard.

Quant

Quant Forecast

Compara 7D, 14D y 30D con la misma estructura.

$1,182.16

-0.76%

$1150.65 ~ $1213.97

14d

$1,195.38

+0.35%

$1162.32 ~ $1230.45

30d

$1,195.30

+0.34%

$1162.04 ~ $1228.61

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Aquí el sistema confirma, ajusta o revierte la tesis base del quant.

Decision

⇄ADJUST

Direction

—Neutral

Consensus

51%

Score

+0.023

Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

En crisis, la simulación agrega una capa extra de decisión.

Run

swarm_20260714_211003_zs

Direction

Bajista

Confidence

81.2%

ZS swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 6 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (1개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO

Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for ZS

73%

Hit rate

AI Debate

Consenso Multi-IA

Análisis cruzado de agentes de IA independientes

—

Veredicto IA

Neutral

Confianza

34%

Acuerdo

35%

Agents

12/12

Votación

Alcista

32%

Neutral

35%

Bajista

34%

Factores clave

1Enso El Nino Supply Side
2ZS ZC Relative Weakness
3Conflicting Quant Horizon Signals
4Seasonal August Bearish Bias
5Negative Macd

Riesgos clave

!Golden Cross Uptrend Could Reassert If Export Demand Surprises
!Black Sea Or South America Logistics Shock Could Reverse Supply Narrative Quickly
!Bullish Moving Average Structure
!Tight Physical Market Proxy

Resumen por Equipo

▲Globalsonnet-4.6

El Nino conditions favor US soybean yields into a period of already-ample South American supply, and the ZS/ZC divergence (soy lagging corn by 6pp) reads as relative weakness in bean demand/crush...

▲Globalgpt-5.4

Near-term momentum and the 7-day quant forecast favor modest downside, while soybean underperformance versus corn reinforces relative weakness.

◉Demandsonnet-4.6

Weak hog margins (HE at just 12th percentile of its 52w range) directly compress soymeal feed demand, the primary channel through which ZS demand softens, and this aligns with the quant model's 7d...

◉Demandgpt-5.4

Weak livestock-feed economics and a price at the 77th percentile of its 52-week range point to demand rationing, supporting modest near-term downside.

Reglas vs IAagree

Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Quita el comportamiento de compra y deja la página enfocada en evidencia, scorecard y ejecución por gráfico.

Report

Abrir informe de evidencia

Validation

Ver scorecard y paper trading

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

Date	Forecast	Low	High
2026-08-15	$1145.16	$1112.64	$1178.19
2026-08-16	$1147.42	$1116.47	$1177.77
2026-08-17	$1172.14	$1138.80	$1206.13
2026-08-18	$1174.55	$1143.07	$1205.76
2026-08-19	$1176.79	$1146.27	$1209.18
2026-08-20	$1179.20	$1146.98	$1212.83
2026-08-21	$1182.16	$1150.65	$1213.97
2026-08-22	$1161.51	$1130.07	$1195.70
2026-08-23	$1163.66	$1127.89	$1196.97
2026-08-24	$1188.06	$1155.84	$1219.96
2026-08-25	$1189.98	$1156.61	$1224.05
2026-08-26	$1191.58	$1160.41	$1223.37
2026-08-27	$1193.24	$1159.63	$1227.03
2026-08-28	$1195.38	$1162.32	$1230.45

E-E-A-T

Fuentes de Datos

USDA WASDE NOAA ENSO/CFSv2 CFTC COT NASA NDVI KAMIS CME Group FAO

Metodologia: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Ultima actualizacion: 15/08/2026, 07:06 (UTC)