Mengapa harga Kedelai Netral?

[Supply Crew / ZS] Weather alert: DROUGHT_RISK in brazil_mt threatens ZS supply. Heat stress risk in brazil_mt: avg max temp 36.0C. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-0.8%), supply pressure easing. Seasonal: month 8 is typically a tight-supply period for ZS; [Demand Crew / ZS] HE at 52w 12%: unprofitable feeding reduces ZS demand. Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Price at 77.0th percentile of 52w range — moderately elevated, beginning to pressure downstream margins. Quant 7d: bearish (-0.8%), consistent with demand softness

Bagaimana prediksi harga Kedelai 30 hari ke depan?

30-day forecast: $1195.30 (+0.34%), range: $1162.04–$1228.61.

Bagaimana mulai trading futures Kedelai?

Kedelai (ZS) futures trade on CME/ICE. Review CropCast evidence and scorecard, then execute via a charting platform like TradingView.

Faktor apa saja yang mempengaruhi harga Kedelai?

Key factors include USDA stock reports, NOAA weather forecasts, CFTC COT positioning, NASA NDVI crop health, FX rates, and energy prices.

Seberapa akurat prediksi CropCast untuk Kedelai?

Hit rate: 73.1% (98/134). Wrong calls stay visible.

Prediksi Harga Kedelai 2026 — AI

—Netral⇄ADJUST

Harga Saat Ini

$1,191.25

+1.97%

Konsensus

51%

Kepercayaan

68%

Confidence keputusan68%

Main report time

Market snapshot time

15/08/2026, 07.06 (UTC)

Quant basis

7D bearish · -0.76%

Kedelai belum menunjukkan keunggulan arah yang jelas.

Sampai conviction naik, mode observasi adalah pilihan yang lebih bersih.

Laporan harian Scorecard

Summary

Ringkasan sederhana

Baca arah, bukti, dan risiko sebelum memutuskan cara eksekusi.

Ringkasan cepat

Kedelai belum menunjukkan keunggulan arah yang jelas. Sampai conviction naik, mode observasi adalah pilihan yang lebih bersih.

Judgment basis

Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.

Main report time

Market snapshot time

15/08/2026, 07.06 (UTC)

Quant basis

7D bearish · -0.76%

Evidence basis

Pasokan

[Supply Crew / ZS] Weather alert: DROUGHT_RISK in brazil_mt threatens ZS supply. Heat stress risk in brazil_mt: avg max temp 36.0C. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-0.8%), supply pressure easing. Seasonal: month 8 is typically a tight-supply period for ZS

Permintaan

[Demand Crew / ZS] HE at 52w 12%: unprofitable feeding reduces ZS demand. Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Price at 77.0th percentile of 52w range — moderately elevated, beginning to pressure downstream margins. Quant 7d: bearish (-0.8%), consistent with demand softness

Makro

[Macro Crew / ZS] Natural gas at 52w 4%: fertilizer costs low. Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. Intelligence sentiment: 4 bullish vs 0 bearish. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bearish (-0.8%), macro alignment

Mengapa seperti ini

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Mengapa menunggu bisa lebih baik

Sampai conviction naik, mode observasi adalah pilihan yang lebih bersih.

Apa yang dicek berikutnya

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Market regime

Event-wait / neutral regime

Event context

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Disagreement diagnosis

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence

Deferred evidence

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Skenario dasar

Kedelai belum menunjukkan keunggulan arah yang jelas.

Risk watch

Belum ada perbedaan besar saat ini.

ZS swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 6 active signals.

Chart

Grafik Pasar

Grafik hanya referensi visual; keputusan utama datang dari bukti dan debate di bawah.

Data tertunda. Gabungkan chart dengan bukti dan scorecard.

Quant

Quant Forecast

Bandingkan 7D, 14D, dan 30D dalam struktur yang sama.

$1,182.16

-0.76%

$1150.65 ~ $1213.97

14d

$1,195.38

+0.35%

$1162.32 ~ $1230.45

30d

$1,195.30

+0.34%

$1162.04 ~ $1228.61

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Di sini sistem mengonfirmasi, menyesuaikan, atau override base case quant.

Decision

⇄ADJUST

Direction

—Netral

Consensus

51%

Score

+0.023

Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

Saat krisis, simulasi menjadi layer keputusan tambahan.

Run

swarm_20260714_211003_zs

Direction

Turun

Confidence

81.2%

ZS swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 6 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (1개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO

Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for ZS

73%

Hit rate

AI Debate

Konsensus Multi-AI

Analisis silang dari agen AI independen

—

Keputusan AI

Netral

Keyakinan

34%

Kesepakatan

35%

Agents

12/12

Distribusi Suara

Naik

32%

Netral

35%

Turun

34%

Faktor Kunci

1Enso El Nino Supply Side
2ZS ZC Relative Weakness
3Conflicting Quant Horizon Signals
4Seasonal August Bearish Bias
5Negative Macd

Risiko Utama

!Golden Cross Uptrend Could Reassert If Export Demand Surprises
!Black Sea Or South America Logistics Shock Could Reverse Supply Narrative Quickly
!Bullish Moving Average Structure
!Tight Physical Market Proxy

Ringkasan Analisis Kru

▲Globalsonnet-4.6

El Nino conditions favor US soybean yields into a period of already-ample South American supply, and the ZS/ZC divergence (soy lagging corn by 6pp) reads as relative weakness in bean demand/crush...

▲Globalgpt-5.4

Near-term momentum and the 7-day quant forecast favor modest downside, while soybean underperformance versus corn reinforces relative weakness.

◉Demandsonnet-4.6

Weak hog margins (HE at just 12th percentile of its 52w range) directly compress soymeal feed demand, the primary channel through which ZS demand softens, and this aligns with the quant model's 7d...

◉Demandgpt-5.4

Weak livestock-feed economics and a price at the 77th percentile of its 52-week range point to demand rationing, supporting modest near-term downside.

Aturan vs AIagree

Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Hilangkan perilaku shopping dan fokuskan halaman pada bukti, scorecard, dan chart execution.

Report

Buka laporan bukti

Validation

Lihat scorecard dan paper trading

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

Date	Forecast	Low	High
2026-08-15	$1145.16	$1112.64	$1178.19
2026-08-16	$1147.42	$1116.47	$1177.77
2026-08-17	$1172.14	$1138.80	$1206.13
2026-08-18	$1174.55	$1143.07	$1205.76
2026-08-19	$1176.79	$1146.27	$1209.18
2026-08-20	$1179.20	$1146.98	$1212.83
2026-08-21	$1182.16	$1150.65	$1213.97
2026-08-22	$1161.51	$1130.07	$1195.70
2026-08-23	$1163.66	$1127.89	$1196.97
2026-08-24	$1188.06	$1155.84	$1219.96
2026-08-25	$1189.98	$1156.61	$1224.05
2026-08-26	$1191.58	$1160.41	$1223.37
2026-08-27	$1193.24	$1159.63	$1227.03
2026-08-28	$1195.38	$1162.32	$1230.45

E-E-A-T

Sumber Data

USDA WASDE NOAA ENSO/CFSv2 CFTC COT NASA NDVI KAMIS CME Group FAO

Metodologi: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Terakhir diperbarui: 15/08/2026, 07.06 (UTC)