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Signal Detail

Газ

AI-ответ

Газ (NG) 30-day outlook: Боковик. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-4.6%), supply pressure easing. W. Confidence 61%. (As of 2026-08-14)

NG
—Боковик⇄ADJUST
Текущая цена
$2.72
-0.44%
Консенсус
67%
Уверенность
61%
Уверенность решения61%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
15.08.2026, 07:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -4.63%

Газ пока не показывает явного преимущества по направлению.

Пока уверенность не вырастет, режим наблюдения выглядит чище.

Daily reportScorecard
Summary

Простое объяснение сигнала

Сначала прочитайте направление, доказательства и риск, а потом решайте, как исполнять.

Быстрый вывод

Газ пока не показывает явного преимущества по направлению. Пока уверенность не вырастет, режим наблюдения выглядит чище.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
15.08.2026, 07:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -4.63%
Evidence basis
Предложение
[Supply Crew / NG] Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-4.6%), supply pressure easing. Wide CI range (34%): high supply uncertainty. 52w position 4%: low prices likely reducing production incentives
Спрос
[Demand Crew / NG] Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Price at 3.9th percentile of 52w range — bargain levels attract restocking and value buying from processors. Quant 7d: bearish (-4.6%), consistent with demand softness
Макро
[Macro Crew / NG] Broad commodity trend bullish: 8/11 above SMA200 (73%). Broad momentum: 8 golden crosses across commodities. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bearish (-4.6%), macro alignment
Почему такой вывод
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Почему ждать может быть лучше
i

Пока уверенность не вырастет, режим наблюдения выглядит чище.

Что смотреть дальше
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Event-wait / neutral regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Базовый сценарий

Газ пока не показывает явного преимущества по направлению.

Риск-контроль
Сейчас значимых разногласий нет.
NG swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 7 active signals.
Chart

Рыночный график

График служит только визуальной опорой; реальный вывод формируется из доказательств и debate ниже.

Данные с задержкой. Сверяйте решение с доказательствами и scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Сравните 7D, 14D и 30D в одной структуре.

7d
$2.59
-4.63%
$2.13 ~ $3.05
14d
$2.64
-2.69%
$2.19 ~ $3.09
30d
$2.44
-10.28%
$1.95 ~ $2.91
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Здесь система подтверждает, корректирует или переворачивает quant base case.

Decision
⇄ADJUST
Direction
—Боковик
Consensus
67%
Score
-0.393
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

В кризисе simulation становится дополнительным уровнем решения.

Run
swarm_20260812_211740_ng
Direction
Падение
Confidence
68.6%

NG swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 7 active signals.

다수 지역 가뭄 (4개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for NG

NG
NG
NG
82%
Hit rate
AI Debate

AI Мульти-модель

Перекрёстная проверка независимыми AI

▼

Вердикт AI

Медвежий

Уверен.

57%

Согласие

78%

Agents

12/12

Голосование

Бычий
6%
Нейтр.
17%
Медвежий
78%

Ключ. факторы

  • 1Ample Us Storage Injections
  • 2No Current Geopolitical Supply Shock
  • 3Weak Ldc Industrial Demand
  • 4Technical Downtrend Confirmed
  • 5Multi Horizon Bearish Forecast

Осн. риски

  • !Hurricane Season Gulf Lng Disruption Risk
  • !Late Summer Cooling Demand Spike
  • !China Lng Restocking Could Tighten Global Spreads
  • !Seasonal Bullish Bias

Анализ по группам

▲Глобал.sonnet-4.6

Global supply-side picture supports the bearish quant/rule-based read: US and global LNG feedgas remains ample, storage is tracking near/above 5yr average heading into shoulder season, and there's no...

▲Глобал.gpt-5.4

The aligned bearish forecasts across 7-, 14-, and 30-day horizons, negative MACD, death cross, and price below all major moving averages indicate a persistent structural downtrend.

◈Предлож.sonnet-4.6

Near-term momentum (-4.6% 7d, -10.3% 30d) confirms ample supply/storage pressure into the summer injection season, but with price sitting at just the 4th percentile of its 52-week range, the...

◈Предлож.gpt-5.4

The bearish forecasts across 7-, 14-, and 30-day horizons indicate persistent near-term supply pressure, but the data provide no direct evidence from inventories, production, weather, or...

Правила vs AIdisagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Уберите shopping-логику и сфокусируйте страницу на доказательствах, scorecard и chart execution.

Report
Открыть отчет с основаниями
Validation
Открыть scorecard и paper trading
Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-08-15$2.31$1.81$2.80
2026-08-16$2.32$1.84$2.78
2026-08-17$2.56$2.12$3.06
2026-08-18$2.56$2.12$3.03
2026-08-19$2.59$2.09$3.08
2026-08-20$2.57$2.08$3.05
2026-08-21$2.59$2.13$3.05
2026-08-22$2.37$1.89$2.88
2026-08-23$2.38$1.88$2.85
2026-08-24$2.63$2.19$3.09
2026-08-25$2.62$2.16$3.09
2026-08-26$2.65$2.17$3.15
2026-08-27$2.63$2.14$3.12
2026-08-28$2.64$2.19$3.09
E-E-A-T

Источники данных

USDA WASDENOAA ENSO/CFSv2CFTC COTNASA NDVIKAMISCME GroupFAO

Методология: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Обновлено:

CropCast v2.0 — ИИ-движок прогнозов цен на сырьё