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Signal Detail

Gas-Alam

Jawaban Cepat AI

Gas-Alam (NG) 30-day outlook: Netral. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-4.6%), supply pressure easing. W. Confidence 61%. (As of 2026-08-14)

NG
—Netral⇄ADJUST
Harga Saat Ini
$2.72
-0.44%
Konsensus
67%
Kepercayaan
61%
Confidence keputusan61%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
15/08/2026, 07.06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -4.63%

Gas-Alam belum menunjukkan keunggulan arah yang jelas.

Sampai conviction naik, mode observasi adalah pilihan yang lebih bersih.

Laporan harianScorecard
Summary

Ringkasan sederhana

Baca arah, bukti, dan risiko sebelum memutuskan cara eksekusi.

Ringkasan cepat

Gas-Alam belum menunjukkan keunggulan arah yang jelas. Sampai conviction naik, mode observasi adalah pilihan yang lebih bersih.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
15/08/2026, 07.06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -4.63%
Evidence basis
Pasokan
[Supply Crew / NG] Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-4.6%), supply pressure easing. Wide CI range (34%): high supply uncertainty. 52w position 4%: low prices likely reducing production incentives
Permintaan
[Demand Crew / NG] Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Price at 3.9th percentile of 52w range — bargain levels attract restocking and value buying from processors. Quant 7d: bearish (-4.6%), consistent with demand softness
Makro
[Macro Crew / NG] Broad commodity trend bullish: 8/11 above SMA200 (73%). Broad momentum: 8 golden crosses across commodities. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bearish (-4.6%), macro alignment
Mengapa seperti ini
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Mengapa menunggu bisa lebih baik
i

Sampai conviction naik, mode observasi adalah pilihan yang lebih bersih.

Apa yang dicek berikutnya
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Event-wait / neutral regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Skenario dasar

Gas-Alam belum menunjukkan keunggulan arah yang jelas.

Risk watch
Belum ada perbedaan besar saat ini.
NG swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 7 active signals.
Chart

Grafik Pasar

Grafik hanya referensi visual; keputusan utama datang dari bukti dan debate di bawah.

Data tertunda. Gabungkan chart dengan bukti dan scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Bandingkan 7D, 14D, dan 30D dalam struktur yang sama.

7d
$2.59
-4.63%
$2.13 ~ $3.05
14d
$2.64
-2.69%
$2.19 ~ $3.09
30d
$2.44
-10.28%
$1.95 ~ $2.91
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Di sini sistem mengonfirmasi, menyesuaikan, atau override base case quant.

Decision
⇄ADJUST
Direction
—Netral
Consensus
67%
Score
-0.393
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

Saat krisis, simulasi menjadi layer keputusan tambahan.

Run
swarm_20260812_211740_ng
Direction
Turun
Confidence
68.6%

NG swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 7 active signals.

다수 지역 가뭄 (4개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for NG

NG
NG
NG
82%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Konsensus Multi-AI

Analisis silang dari agen AI independen

▼

Keputusan AI

Turun

Keyakinan

57%

Kesepakatan

78%

Agents

12/12

Distribusi Suara

Naik
6%
Netral
17%
Turun
78%

Faktor Kunci

  • 1Ample Us Storage Injections
  • 2No Current Geopolitical Supply Shock
  • 3Weak Ldc Industrial Demand
  • 4Technical Downtrend Confirmed
  • 5Multi Horizon Bearish Forecast

Risiko Utama

  • !Hurricane Season Gulf Lng Disruption Risk
  • !Late Summer Cooling Demand Spike
  • !China Lng Restocking Could Tighten Global Spreads
  • !Seasonal Bullish Bias

Ringkasan Analisis Kru

▲Globalsonnet-4.6

Global supply-side picture supports the bearish quant/rule-based read: US and global LNG feedgas remains ample, storage is tracking near/above 5yr average heading into shoulder season, and there's no...

▲Globalgpt-5.4

The aligned bearish forecasts across 7-, 14-, and 30-day horizons, negative MACD, death cross, and price below all major moving averages indicate a persistent structural downtrend.

◈Supplysonnet-4.6

Near-term momentum (-4.6% 7d, -10.3% 30d) confirms ample supply/storage pressure into the summer injection season, but with price sitting at just the 4th percentile of its 52-week range, the...

◈Supplygpt-5.4

The bearish forecasts across 7-, 14-, and 30-day horizons indicate persistent near-term supply pressure, but the data provide no direct evidence from inventories, production, weather, or...

Aturan vs AIdisagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Hilangkan perilaku shopping dan fokuskan halaman pada bukti, scorecard, dan chart execution.

Report
Buka laporan bukti
Validation
Lihat scorecard dan paper trading
Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-08-15$2.31$1.81$2.80
2026-08-16$2.32$1.84$2.78
2026-08-17$2.56$2.12$3.06
2026-08-18$2.56$2.12$3.03
2026-08-19$2.59$2.09$3.08
2026-08-20$2.57$2.08$3.05
2026-08-21$2.59$2.13$3.05
2026-08-22$2.37$1.89$2.88
2026-08-23$2.38$1.88$2.85
2026-08-24$2.63$2.19$3.09
2026-08-25$2.62$2.16$3.09
2026-08-26$2.65$2.17$3.15
2026-08-27$2.63$2.14$3.12
2026-08-28$2.64$2.19$3.09
E-E-A-T

Sumber Data

USDA WASDENOAA ENSO/CFSv2CFTC COTNASA NDVIKAMISCME GroupFAO

Metodologi: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

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