Signal Detail

Algodão

Resposta Rapida IA

Algodão (CT) 30-day outlook: Alta. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+4.5%), supply may be tightening;. Confidence 76%. (As of 2026-06-17)

CT
AltaADJUST
Preço Atual
$77.76
+5.90%
Consenso
90%
Confiança
76%
Confiança da decisão76%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
17/06/2026, 03:05 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -1.01%

Algodão está com viés altista no momento.

Revise a evidência e então siga o cenário altista de forma seletiva.

Summary

Leitura em linguagem simples

Leia direção, evidência e risco antes de decidir como executar.

Leitura rápida

Algodão está com viés altista no momento. Revise a evidência e então siga o cenário altista de forma seletiva.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
17/06/2026, 03:05 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -1.01%
Evidence basis
Oferta
[Supply Crew / CT] Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+4.5%), supply may be tightening
Demanda
[Demand Crew / CT] Back-to-school textile orders: cotton demand. Quant 7d: bullish (+4.5%), consistent with demand strength
Macro
[Macro Crew / CT] Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. Intelligence: 5 geopolitical signals (risk-on for commodities). EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bullish (+4.5%), macro alignment
Por que essa leitura
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Por que esperar pode ser melhor
i

Even on a bullish call, remaining risks mean waiting for confirmation can still be cleaner than chasing.

O que observar a seguir
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Cenário base

Algodão está com viés altista no momento.

Risco
Não há grande divergência no momento.
CT swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 5 active signals.
Chart

Gráfico de Mercado

O gráfico é apenas referência visual; a chamada real vem da evidência e do debate abaixo.

Dados com atraso. Combine o gráfico com evidência e scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Compare 7D, 14D e 30D na mesma estrutura.

7d
$76.97
-1.01%
$75.04 ~ $78.73
14d
$77.40
-0.46%
$75.49 ~ $79.23
30d
$76.81
-1.22%
$74.82 ~ $78.87
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Aqui o sistema confirma, ajusta ou substitui a tese base do quant.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Alta
Consensus
90%
Score
+0.821
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

Em crise, a simulação vira uma camada extra de decisão.

Run
swarm_20260605_065249_ct
Direction
Alta
Confidence
92%

CT swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 5 active signals.

폭염 경고KC 52주 극단다수 선물 고변동성 (4개)
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for CT

CT
CT
CT
4%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Consenso Multi-IA

Análise cruzada de agentes de IA independentes

Veredicto IA

Alta

Confiança

63%

Acordo

100%

Agents

6/12

Votação

Alta
100%
Neutro
0%
Baixa
0%

Fatores-chave

  • 1Oversold Rsi30 Mean Reversion Setup
  • 2Golden Cross Structural Uptrend Intact
  • 3Texas Plains Dryness Supply Constraint
  • 4Quant Model High Accuracy Multi Horizon Bullish
  • 5Historically Suppressed Price Level 72 Cents

Riscos-chave

  • !US-China trade flow disruption reducing export demand for US cotton
  • !polyester substitution risk if crude oil remains soft, depressing synthetic fiber prices and capping cotton upside
  • !Broad commodity complex bearish (8/9 falling) — macro USD strength or demand destruction can extend oversold conditions further before reversal
  • !News flow vacuum (1 insight, neutral) signals no near-term fundamental catalyst; without a trigger, oversold can persist or deepen

Resumo por Equipe

Globalsonnet-4.6

Cotton at 72.94 cents/lb sits in historically suppressed territory, and an RSI of 30 — while labeled bearish momentum — signals an oversold condition that often precedes mean-reversion bounces,...

Sentimentsonnet-4.6

RSI at 29.9 is a genuine capitulation signal — at 72.94 cents/lb cotton sits near historically depressed levels, and speculative shorts are likely deeply extended at this point, creating asymmetric...

Demandsonnet-4.6

Back-to-school procurement cycles are genuine demand catalysts — textile mills and apparel importers typically place Q3 inventory orders in June, and at $72.94/lb cotton remains below...

Logisticssonnet-4.6

We are in mid-June 2026, the heart of US cotton planting season, when old-crop physical inventories are seasonally tight and new-crop weather risk is at its peak — a combination that historically...

Regras vs IAagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Remova o comportamento de compra e mantenha a página focada em evidência, scorecard e execução no gráfico.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-06-17$76.36$74.53$78.16
2026-06-18$76.30$74.42$78.06
2026-06-19$76.35$74.51$78.27
2026-06-20$79.11$77.31$80.81
2026-06-21$79.21$77.34$81.08
2026-06-22$76.82$74.99$78.57
2026-06-23$76.97$75.04$78.73
2026-06-24$77.01$75.06$78.87
2026-06-25$76.93$75.12$78.71
2026-06-26$76.94$75.06$78.83
2026-06-27$79.67$77.72$81.51
2026-06-28$79.72$77.81$81.44
2026-06-29$77.29$75.60$79.10
2026-06-30$77.40$75.49$79.23
E-E-A-T

Fontes de Dados

Metodologia: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Ultima atualizacao:

CropCast v2.0 — Motor de Previsão de Preços de Commodities com IA