Signal Detail

Kapas

Jawaban Cepat AI

Kapas (CT) 30-day outlook: Naik. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+4.5%), supply may be tightening;. Confidence 76%. (As of 2026-06-17)

CT
NaikADJUST
Harga Saat Ini
$77.76
+5.90%
Konsensus
90%
Kepercayaan
76%
Confidence keputusan76%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
17/06/2026, 03.05 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -1.01%

Kapas saat ini condong bullish.

Tinjau bukti dulu, lalu ikuti skenario bullish secara selektif.

Summary

Ringkasan sederhana

Baca arah, bukti, dan risiko sebelum memutuskan cara eksekusi.

Ringkasan cepat

Kapas saat ini condong bullish. Tinjau bukti dulu, lalu ikuti skenario bullish secara selektif.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
17/06/2026, 03.05 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -1.01%
Evidence basis
Pasokan
[Supply Crew / CT] Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+4.5%), supply may be tightening
Permintaan
[Demand Crew / CT] Back-to-school textile orders: cotton demand. Quant 7d: bullish (+4.5%), consistent with demand strength
Makro
[Macro Crew / CT] Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. Intelligence: 5 geopolitical signals (risk-on for commodities). EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bullish (+4.5%), macro alignment
Mengapa seperti ini
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Mengapa menunggu bisa lebih baik
i

Even on a bullish call, remaining risks mean waiting for confirmation can still be cleaner than chasing.

Apa yang dicek berikutnya
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Skenario dasar

Kapas saat ini condong bullish.

Risk watch
Belum ada perbedaan besar saat ini.
CT swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 5 active signals.
Chart

Grafik Pasar

Grafik hanya referensi visual; keputusan utama datang dari bukti dan debate di bawah.

Data tertunda. Gabungkan chart dengan bukti dan scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Bandingkan 7D, 14D, dan 30D dalam struktur yang sama.

7d
$76.97
-1.01%
$75.04 ~ $78.73
14d
$77.40
-0.46%
$75.49 ~ $79.23
30d
$76.81
-1.22%
$74.82 ~ $78.87
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Di sini sistem mengonfirmasi, menyesuaikan, atau override base case quant.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Naik
Consensus
90%
Score
+0.821
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

Saat krisis, simulasi menjadi layer keputusan tambahan.

Run
swarm_20260605_065249_ct
Direction
Naik
Confidence
92%

CT swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 5 active signals.

폭염 경고KC 52주 극단다수 선물 고변동성 (4개)
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for CT

CT
CT
CT
4%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Konsensus Multi-AI

Analisis silang dari agen AI independen

Keputusan AI

Naik

Keyakinan

63%

Kesepakatan

100%

Agents

6/12

Distribusi Suara

Naik
100%
Netral
0%
Turun
0%

Faktor Kunci

  • 1Oversold Rsi30 Mean Reversion Setup
  • 2Golden Cross Structural Uptrend Intact
  • 3Texas Plains Dryness Supply Constraint
  • 4Quant Model High Accuracy Multi Horizon Bullish
  • 5Historically Suppressed Price Level 72 Cents

Risiko Utama

  • !US-China trade flow disruption reducing export demand for US cotton
  • !polyester substitution risk if crude oil remains soft, depressing synthetic fiber prices and capping cotton upside
  • !Broad commodity complex bearish (8/9 falling) — macro USD strength or demand destruction can extend oversold conditions further before reversal
  • !News flow vacuum (1 insight, neutral) signals no near-term fundamental catalyst; without a trigger, oversold can persist or deepen

Ringkasan Analisis Kru

Globalsonnet-4.6

Cotton at 72.94 cents/lb sits in historically suppressed territory, and an RSI of 30 — while labeled bearish momentum — signals an oversold condition that often precedes mean-reversion bounces,...

Sentimentsonnet-4.6

RSI at 29.9 is a genuine capitulation signal — at 72.94 cents/lb cotton sits near historically depressed levels, and speculative shorts are likely deeply extended at this point, creating asymmetric...

Demandsonnet-4.6

Back-to-school procurement cycles are genuine demand catalysts — textile mills and apparel importers typically place Q3 inventory orders in June, and at $72.94/lb cotton remains below...

Logisticssonnet-4.6

We are in mid-June 2026, the heart of US cotton planting season, when old-crop physical inventories are seasonally tight and new-crop weather risk is at its peak — a combination that historically...

Aturan vs AIagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

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Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-06-17$76.36$74.53$78.16
2026-06-18$76.30$74.42$78.06
2026-06-19$76.35$74.51$78.27
2026-06-20$79.11$77.31$80.81
2026-06-21$79.21$77.34$81.08
2026-06-22$76.82$74.99$78.57
2026-06-23$76.97$75.04$78.73
2026-06-24$77.01$75.06$78.87
2026-06-25$76.93$75.12$78.71
2026-06-26$76.94$75.06$78.83
2026-06-27$79.67$77.72$81.51
2026-06-28$79.72$77.81$81.44
2026-06-29$77.29$75.60$79.10
2026-06-30$77.40$75.49$79.23
E-E-A-T

Sumber Data

Metodologi: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Terakhir diperbarui:

CropCast v2.0 — Mesin Prediksi Harga Komoditas AI