Signal Detail

Algodón

Respuesta Rapida IA

Algodón (CT) 30-day outlook: Alcista. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+4.5%), supply may be tightening;. Confidence 76%. (As of 2026-06-17)

CT
AlcistaADJUST
Precio Actual
$77.76
+5.90%
Consenso
90%
Confianza
76%
Confianza de la decisión76%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
17/06/2026, 03:05 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -1.01%

Algodón muestra un sesgo alcista por ahora.

Revisa la evidencia y después sigue el escenario alcista de forma selectiva.

Summary

Lectura en lenguaje claro

Lee dirección, evidencia y riesgo antes de decidir cómo ejecutar.

Lectura rápida

Algodón muestra un sesgo alcista por ahora. Revisa la evidencia y después sigue el escenario alcista de forma selectiva.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
17/06/2026, 03:05 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -1.01%
Evidence basis
Oferta
[Supply Crew / CT] Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+4.5%), supply may be tightening
Demanda
[Demand Crew / CT] Back-to-school textile orders: cotton demand. Quant 7d: bullish (+4.5%), consistent with demand strength
Macro
[Macro Crew / CT] Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. Intelligence: 5 geopolitical signals (risk-on for commodities). EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bullish (+4.5%), macro alignment
Por qué esta lectura
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Por qué puede ser mejor esperar
i

Even on a bullish call, remaining risks mean waiting for confirmation can still be cleaner than chasing.

Qué vigilar después
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Escenario base

Algodón muestra un sesgo alcista por ahora.

Riesgo
No hay grandes desacuerdos ahora mismo.
CT swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 5 active signals.
Chart

Gráfico de Mercado

El gráfico es solo referencia visual; la decisión real sale de la evidencia y del debate inferior.

Datos con retraso. Combina el gráfico con evidencia y scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Compara 7D, 14D y 30D con la misma estructura.

7d
$76.97
-1.01%
$75.04 ~ $78.73
14d
$77.40
-0.46%
$75.49 ~ $79.23
30d
$76.81
-1.22%
$74.82 ~ $78.87
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Aquí el sistema confirma, ajusta o revierte la tesis base del quant.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Alcista
Consensus
90%
Score
+0.821
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

En crisis, la simulación agrega una capa extra de decisión.

Run
swarm_20260605_065249_ct
Direction
Alcista
Confidence
92%

CT swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 5 active signals.

폭염 경고KC 52주 극단다수 선물 고변동성 (4개)
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for CT

CT
CT
CT
4%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Consenso Multi-IA

Análisis cruzado de agentes de IA independientes

Veredicto IA

Alcista

Confianza

63%

Acuerdo

100%

Agents

6/12

Votación

Alcista
100%
Neutral
0%
Bajista
0%

Factores clave

  • 1Oversold Rsi30 Mean Reversion Setup
  • 2Golden Cross Structural Uptrend Intact
  • 3Texas Plains Dryness Supply Constraint
  • 4Quant Model High Accuracy Multi Horizon Bullish
  • 5Historically Suppressed Price Level 72 Cents

Riesgos clave

  • !US-China trade flow disruption reducing export demand for US cotton
  • !polyester substitution risk if crude oil remains soft, depressing synthetic fiber prices and capping cotton upside
  • !Broad commodity complex bearish (8/9 falling) — macro USD strength or demand destruction can extend oversold conditions further before reversal
  • !News flow vacuum (1 insight, neutral) signals no near-term fundamental catalyst; without a trigger, oversold can persist or deepen

Resumen por Equipo

Globalsonnet-4.6

Cotton at 72.94 cents/lb sits in historically suppressed territory, and an RSI of 30 — while labeled bearish momentum — signals an oversold condition that often precedes mean-reversion bounces,...

Sentimentsonnet-4.6

RSI at 29.9 is a genuine capitulation signal — at 72.94 cents/lb cotton sits near historically depressed levels, and speculative shorts are likely deeply extended at this point, creating asymmetric...

Demandsonnet-4.6

Back-to-school procurement cycles are genuine demand catalysts — textile mills and apparel importers typically place Q3 inventory orders in June, and at $72.94/lb cotton remains below...

Logisticssonnet-4.6

We are in mid-June 2026, the heart of US cotton planting season, when old-crop physical inventories are seasonally tight and new-crop weather risk is at its peak — a combination that historically...

Reglas vs IAagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Quita el comportamiento de compra y deja la página enfocada en evidencia, scorecard y ejecución por gráfico.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-06-17$76.36$74.53$78.16
2026-06-18$76.30$74.42$78.06
2026-06-19$76.35$74.51$78.27
2026-06-20$79.11$77.31$80.81
2026-06-21$79.21$77.34$81.08
2026-06-22$76.82$74.99$78.57
2026-06-23$76.97$75.04$78.73
2026-06-24$77.01$75.06$78.87
2026-06-25$76.93$75.12$78.71
2026-06-26$76.94$75.06$78.83
2026-06-27$79.67$77.72$81.51
2026-06-28$79.72$77.81$81.44
2026-06-29$77.29$75.60$79.10
2026-06-30$77.40$75.49$79.23
E-E-A-T

Fuentes de Datos

Metodologia: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Ultima actualizacion:

CropCast v2.0 — Motor de Predicción de Precios con IA