Mengapa harga Jagung Turun?

[Supply Crew / ZC] Weather alert: DROUGHT_RISK in brazil_mt threatens ZC supply. Heat stress risk in brazil_mt: avg max temp 36.0C. El Nino phase: favorable US growing conditions. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-6.5%), supply pressure easing. 52w position 100%: high prices incentivizing production expansion. High volatility (37%): potential supply-chain disruption; [Demand Crew / ZC] HE at 52w 12%: unprofitable feeding reduces ZC demand. Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Price at 100.0th percentile of 52w range — elevated prices historically reduce discretionary consumption and incentivize substitution. Quant 7d: bearish (-6.5%), consistent with demand softness

Bagaimana prediksi harga Jagung 30 hari ke depan?

30-day forecast: $468.98 (-3.05%), range: $456.07–$481.92.

Bagaimana mulai trading futures Jagung?

Jagung (ZC) futures trade on CME/ICE. Review CropCast evidence and scorecard, then execute via a charting platform like TradingView.

Faktor apa saja yang mempengaruhi harga Jagung?

Key factors include USDA stock reports, NOAA weather forecasts, CFTC COT positioning, NASA NDVI crop health, FX rates, and energy prices.

Seberapa akurat prediksi CropCast untuk Jagung?

Hit rate: 34.5% (49/142). Wrong calls stay visible.

Prediksi Harga Jagung 2026 — AI

↓Turun⇄ADJUST

Harga Saat Ini

$483.75

+7.98%

Konsensus

79%

Kepercayaan

76%

Confidence keputusan76%

Main report time

Market snapshot time

15/08/2026, 07.06 (UTC)

Quant basis

7D bearish · -6.46%

Jagung saat ini condong bearish.

Daripada mengejar harga, lebih baik defensif atau menunggu harga yang lebih baik.

Laporan harian Scorecard

Summary

Ringkasan sederhana

Baca arah, bukti, dan risiko sebelum memutuskan cara eksekusi.

Ringkasan cepat

Jagung saat ini condong bearish. Daripada mengejar harga, lebih baik defensif atau menunggu harga yang lebih baik.

Judgment basis

Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.

Main report time

Market snapshot time

15/08/2026, 07.06 (UTC)

Quant basis

7D bearish · -6.46%

Evidence basis

Pasokan

[Supply Crew / ZC] Weather alert: DROUGHT_RISK in brazil_mt threatens ZC supply. Heat stress risk in brazil_mt: avg max temp 36.0C. El Nino phase: favorable US growing conditions. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-6.5%), supply pressure easing. 52w position 100%: high prices incentivizing production expansion. High volatility (37%): potential supply-chain disruption

Permintaan

[Demand Crew / ZC] HE at 52w 12%: unprofitable feeding reduces ZC demand. Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Price at 100.0th percentile of 52w range — elevated prices historically reduce discretionary consumption and incentivize substitution. Quant 7d: bearish (-6.5%), consistent with demand softness

Makro

[Macro Crew / ZC] Natural gas at 52w 4%: fertilizer costs low. HIGH volatility regime (37%): elevated uncertainty, wider ranges expected. Broad momentum: 8 golden crosses across commodities. Intelligence sentiment: 4 bullish vs 0 bearish. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bearish (-6.5%), macro alignment

Mengapa seperti ini

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Mengapa menunggu bisa lebih baik

Daripada mengejar harga, lebih baik defensif atau menunggu harga yang lebih baik.

Apa yang dicek berikutnya

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Market regime

Directional regime

Event context

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Disagreement diagnosis

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence

Deferred evidence

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Skenario dasar

Jagung saat ini condong bearish.

Risk watch

Belum ada perbedaan besar saat ini.

ZC swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 7 active signals.

Chart

Grafik Pasar

Grafik hanya referensi visual; keputusan utama datang dari bukti dan debate di bawah.

Data tertunda. Gabungkan chart dengan bukti dan scorecard.

Quant

Quant Forecast

Bandingkan 7D, 14D, dan 30D dalam struktur yang sama.

$452.48

-6.46%

$439.85 ~ $465.97

14d

$460.60

-4.79%

$447.94 ~ $473.95

30d

$468.98

-3.05%

$456.07 ~ $481.92

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Di sini sistem mengonfirmasi, menyesuaikan, atau override base case quant.

Decision

⇄ADJUST

Direction

↓Turun

Consensus

79%

Score

-0.838

Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

Saat krisis, simulasi menjadi layer keputusan tambahan.

Run

swarm_20260813_212331_zc

Direction

Turun

Confidence

68.6%

ZC swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 7 active signals.

다수 지역 가뭄 (3개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO

Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for ZC

35%

Hit rate

AI Debate

Konsensus Multi-AI

Analisis silang dari agen AI independen

▼

Keputusan AI

Turun

Keyakinan

67%

Kesepakatan

93%

Agents

12/12

Distribusi Suara

Naik

Netral

Turun

93%

Faktor Kunci

1Weak Feeder Margins HE 12pct
2Quant 7d Momentum Bearish
3Price Induced Demand Destruction At Elevated Levels
4Weak Feed Demand
5Price Induced Demand Destruction

Risiko Utama

!percentile/price data inconsistency undermines the 'demand destruction' narrative's timing
!Korean holiday demand factor is likely a mistranslated/generic cross-commodity signal, not corn-specific — risk of overweighting noise as fundamental
!Stronger Ethanol Or Export Demand
!Feed Margin Recovery

Ringkasan Analisis Kru

◉Demandsonnet-4.6

Weak hog/feeder economics (HE at 12th percentile) genuinely signals softer feed-corn offtake, and the quant 7d momentum (-6.5%) corroborates near-term demand softness — I agree directionally.

◉Demandgpt-5.4

Weak livestock-feeding economics and a price at the top of its 52-week range point to feed substitution and demand destruction, reinforcing the quant forecast for declines across all horizons.

⬡Logisticssonnet-4.6

The 'shipping_port' bullish signal is a data-quality artifact — its detail text references a sugar/consumer-import story, not corn logistics, so it carries no real signal for ZC and should be...

⬡Logisticsgpt-5.4

Brazil's active safrinha corn export season should increase competing export availability and pressure ZC, consistent with the Quant Engine's bearish forecast.

Aturan vs AIagree

Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Hilangkan perilaku shopping dan fokuskan halaman pada bukti, scorecard, dan chart execution.

Report

Buka laporan bukti

Validation

Lihat scorecard dan paper trading

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

Date	Forecast	Low	High
2026-08-15	$419.98	$406.86	$433.48
2026-08-16	$420.72	$407.37	$434.61
2026-08-17	$448.64	$436.08	$461.67
2026-08-18	$449.30	$435.90	$461.63
2026-08-19	$450.70	$437.72	$464.44
2026-08-20	$451.35	$437.20	$465.00
2026-08-21	$452.48	$439.85	$465.97
2026-08-22	$425.92	$413.82	$438.70
2026-08-23	$426.93	$413.55	$440.90
2026-08-24	$455.15	$441.40	$468.40
2026-08-25	$456.14	$443.09	$469.15
2026-08-26	$457.92	$445.22	$471.41
2026-08-27	$459.00	$446.68	$472.13
2026-08-28	$460.60	$447.94	$473.95

E-E-A-T

Sumber Data

USDA WASDE NOAA ENSO/CFSv2 CFTC COT NASA NDVI KAMIS CME Group FAO

Metodologi: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Terakhir diperbarui: 15/08/2026, 07.06 (UTC)