Signal Detail

Maíz

Respuesta Rapida IA

Maíz (ZC) 30-day outlook: Bajista. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Weather alert: DROUGHT_RISK in brazil_mt threatens ZC supply.. Confidence 76%. (As of 2026-08-14)

ZC
BajistaADJUST
Precio Actual
$483.75
+7.98%
Consenso
79%
Confianza
76%
Confianza de la decisión76%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
15/08/2026, 07:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -6.46%

Maíz muestra un sesgo bajista por ahora.

En vez de perseguir precio, conviene un enfoque defensivo o esperar un mejor nivel.

Summary

Lectura en lenguaje claro

Lee dirección, evidencia y riesgo antes de decidir cómo ejecutar.

Lectura rápida

Maíz muestra un sesgo bajista por ahora. En vez de perseguir precio, conviene un enfoque defensivo o esperar un mejor nivel.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
15/08/2026, 07:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -6.46%
Evidence basis
Oferta
[Supply Crew / ZC] Weather alert: DROUGHT_RISK in brazil_mt threatens ZC supply. Heat stress risk in brazil_mt: avg max temp 36.0C. El Nino phase: favorable US growing conditions. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-6.5%), supply pressure easing. 52w position 100%: high prices incentivizing production expansion. High volatility (37%): potential supply-chain disruption
Demanda
[Demand Crew / ZC] HE at 52w 12%: unprofitable feeding reduces ZC demand. Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Price at 100.0th percentile of 52w range — elevated prices historically reduce discretionary consumption and incentivize substitution. Quant 7d: bearish (-6.5%), consistent with demand softness
Macro
[Macro Crew / ZC] Natural gas at 52w 4%: fertilizer costs low. HIGH volatility regime (37%): elevated uncertainty, wider ranges expected. Broad momentum: 8 golden crosses across commodities. Intelligence sentiment: 4 bullish vs 0 bearish. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bearish (-6.5%), macro alignment
Por qué esta lectura
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Por qué puede ser mejor esperar
i

En vez de perseguir precio, conviene un enfoque defensivo o esperar un mejor nivel.

Qué vigilar después
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Escenario base

Maíz muestra un sesgo bajista por ahora.

Riesgo
No hay grandes desacuerdos ahora mismo.
ZC swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 7 active signals.
Chart

Gráfico de Mercado

El gráfico es solo referencia visual; la decisión real sale de la evidencia y del debate inferior.

Datos con retraso. Combina el gráfico con evidencia y scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Compara 7D, 14D y 30D con la misma estructura.

7d
$452.48
-6.46%
$439.85 ~ $465.97
14d
$460.60
-4.79%
$447.94 ~ $473.95
30d
$468.98
-3.05%
$456.07 ~ $481.92
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Aquí el sistema confirma, ajusta o revierte la tesis base del quant.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Bajista
Consensus
79%
Score
-0.838
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

En crisis, la simulación agrega una capa extra de decisión.

Run
swarm_20260813_212331_zc
Direction
Bajista
Confidence
68.6%

ZC swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 7 active signals.

다수 지역 가뭄 (3개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for ZC

ZC
ZC
ZC
ZC
35%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Consenso Multi-IA

Análisis cruzado de agentes de IA independientes

Veredicto IA

Bajista

Confianza

67%

Acuerdo

93%

Agents

12/12

Votación

Alcista
0%
Neutral
7%
Bajista
93%

Factores clave

  • 1Weak Feeder Margins HE 12pct
  • 2Quant 7d Momentum Bearish
  • 3Price Induced Demand Destruction At Elevated Levels
  • 4Weak Feed Demand
  • 5Price Induced Demand Destruction

Riesgos clave

  • !percentile/price data inconsistency undermines the 'demand destruction' narrative's timing
  • !Korean holiday demand factor is likely a mistranslated/generic cross-commodity signal, not corn-specific — risk of overweighting noise as fundamental
  • !Stronger Ethanol Or Export Demand
  • !Feed Margin Recovery

Resumen por Equipo

Demandsonnet-4.6

Weak hog/feeder economics (HE at 12th percentile) genuinely signals softer feed-corn offtake, and the quant 7d momentum (-6.5%) corroborates near-term demand softness — I agree directionally.

Demandgpt-5.4

Weak livestock-feeding economics and a price at the top of its 52-week range point to feed substitution and demand destruction, reinforcing the quant forecast for declines across all horizons.

Logisticssonnet-4.6

The 'shipping_port' bullish signal is a data-quality artifact — its detail text references a sugar/consumer-import story, not corn logistics, so it carries no real signal for ZC and should be...

Logisticsgpt-5.4

Brazil's active safrinha corn export season should increase competing export availability and pressure ZC, consistent with the Quant Engine's bearish forecast.

Reglas vs IAagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Quita el comportamiento de compra y deja la página enfocada en evidencia, scorecard y ejecución por gráfico.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-08-15$419.98$406.86$433.48
2026-08-16$420.72$407.37$434.61
2026-08-17$448.64$436.08$461.67
2026-08-18$449.30$435.90$461.63
2026-08-19$450.70$437.72$464.44
2026-08-20$451.35$437.20$465.00
2026-08-21$452.48$439.85$465.97
2026-08-22$425.92$413.82$438.70
2026-08-23$426.93$413.55$440.90
2026-08-24$455.15$441.40$468.40
2026-08-25$456.14$443.09$469.15
2026-08-26$457.92$445.22$471.41
2026-08-27$459.00$446.68$472.13
2026-08-28$460.60$447.94$473.95
E-E-A-T

Fuentes de Datos

Metodologia: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Ultima actualizacion:

CropCast v2.0 — Motor de Predicción de Precios con IA