Cual es el pronostico del precio de Trigo en 30 dias?

30-day forecast: $642.66 (-6.73%), range: $620.00–$664.22.

Como empezar a operar futuros de Trigo?

Trigo (ZW) futures trade on CME/ICE. Review CropCast evidence and scorecard, then execute via a charting platform like TradingView.

Que factores afectan el precio de Trigo?

Key factors include USDA stock reports, NOAA weather forecasts, CFTC COT positioning, NASA NDVI crop health, FX rates, and energy prices.

Cual es la precision de las predicciones de CropCast para Trigo?

Hit rate: 60% (78/130). Wrong calls stay visible.

Pronóstico de Precio Trigo 2026 — IA

—Neutral⇄ADJUST

Precio Actual

$689.00

+5.55%

Consenso

78%

Confianza

72%

Confianza de la decisión72%

Main report time

Market snapshot time

15/08/2026, 07:06 (UTC)

Quant basis

7D bearish · -9.49%

Trigo todavía no muestra una ventaja direccional clara.

Hasta que suba la convicción, lo más limpio es observar.

Informe diario Scorecard

Summary

Lectura en lenguaje claro

Lee dirección, evidencia y riesgo antes de decidir cómo ejecutar.

Lectura rápida

Trigo todavía no muestra una ventaja direccional clara. Hasta que suba la convicción, lo más limpio es observar.

Judgment basis

Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.

Main report time

Market snapshot time

15/08/2026, 07:06 (UTC)

Quant basis

7D bearish · -9.49%

Evidence basis

Oferta

[Supply Crew / ZW] Weather alert: HEAT_STRESS in us_wheat_belt threatens ZW supply. Weather alert: HEAT_STRESS in france_beauce threatens ZW supply. Moisture deficit in black_sea: precip 4mm vs ET0 demand 34mm. Moisture deficit in france_beauce: precip 4mm vs ET0 demand 33mm. El Nino phase: favorable US growing conditions. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-9.5%), supply pressure easing. Seasonal: month 8 typically sees new supply arriving for ZW. 52w position 92%: high prices incentivizing production expansion. High volatility (36%): potential supply-chain disruption

Demanda

[Demand Crew / ZW] Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Price at 92.1th percentile of 52w range — elevated prices historically reduce discretionary consumption and incentivize substitution. Quant 7d: bearish (-9.5%), consistent with demand softness

Macro

[Macro Crew / ZW] Natural gas at 52w 4%: fertilizer costs low. HIGH volatility regime (36%): elevated uncertainty, wider ranges expected. Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bearish (-9.5%), macro alignment

Por qué esta lectura

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Por qué puede ser mejor esperar

Hasta que suba la convicción, lo más limpio es observar.

Qué vigilar después

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Market regime

Event-wait / neutral regime

Event context

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Disagreement diagnosis

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence

Deferred evidence

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Escenario base

Trigo todavía no muestra una ventaja direccional clara.

Riesgo

No hay grandes desacuerdos ahora mismo.

ZW swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 8 active signals.

Chart

Gráfico de Mercado

El gráfico es solo referencia visual; la decisión real sale de la evidencia y del debate inferior.

Datos con retraso. Combina el gráfico con evidencia y scorecard.

Quant

Quant Forecast

Compara 7D, 14D y 30D con la misma estructura.

$623.64

-9.49%

$602.41 ~ $647.00

14d

$627.48

-8.93%

$605.54 ~ $648.58

30d

$642.66

-6.73%

$620.00 ~ $664.22

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Aquí el sistema confirma, ajusta o revierte la tesis base del quant.

Decision

⇄ADJUST

Direction

—Neutral

Consensus

78%

Score

-0.269

Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

En crisis, la simulación agrega una capa extra de decisión.

Run

swarm_20260718_211054_zw

Direction

Bajista

Confidence

92%

ZW swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 8 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (2개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO

Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for ZW

60%

Hit rate

AI Debate

Consenso Multi-IA

Análisis cruzado de agentes de IA independientes

▼

Veredicto IA

Bajista

Confianza

65%

Acuerdo

85%

Agents

12/12

Votación

Alcista

Neutral

Bajista

85%

Factores clave

1Price Induced Demand Destruction At 92pct Range
2Chuseok Prebuy Largely Absorbed
3Quant 7d Momentum Confirms Bearish
4Elevated Price Demand Destruction
5Broad Horizon Quant Weakness

Riesgos clave

!institutional/feed demand could surprise upside if substitution to corn/other grains is limited
!global import demand (esp. from price-sensitive buyers) may already be near floor, capping further downside
!Stronger Than Expected Import Tenders
!Supply Shock Triggered Stockpiling

Resumen por Equipo

◉Demandsonnet-4.6

가격이 52주 범위 92분위로 소비자·가공업체의 대체재 전환과 재량적 수요 파괴를 유발할 수준이며, 한국 추석 준비 수요는 이미 선구매(pre-buying)로 상당 부분 소진되어 향후 추가 매수 여력이 제한적이다. 퀀트 7일 모멘텀(-9.5%)도 수요 측 약세와 방향이 일치한다.

◉Demandgpt-5.4

The demand backdrop is bearish because the contract sits near the top of its 52-week range, increasing substitution and consumption-rationing pressure, while the Quant Engine projects declines across...

⬡Logisticssonnet-4.6

Two of three crew signals are genuinely wheat-relevant and both bearish: US winter wheat harvest/export peak and Black Sea (Russia/Ukraine) export peak are active simultaneously in month 8, meaning...

⬡Logisticsgpt-5.4

Concurrent U.S. winter-wheat harvest and Black Sea export peaks should increase nearby export availability and intensify competition, creating logistical pressure consistent with the Quant Engine's...

Reglas vs IAdisagree

Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Quita el comportamiento de compra y deja la página enfocada en evidencia, scorecard y ejecución por gráfico.

Report

Abrir informe de evidencia

Validation

Ver scorecard y paper trading

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

Date	Forecast	Low	High
2026-08-15	$609.23	$586.64	$632.83
2026-08-16	$608.02	$586.36	$631.69
2026-08-17	$624.51	$601.35	$647.36
2026-08-18	$624.79	$602.07	$648.23
2026-08-19	$625.07	$602.48	$646.84
2026-08-20	$623.86	$601.36	$645.11
2026-08-21	$623.64	$602.41	$647.00
2026-08-22	$604.70	$581.78	$626.90
2026-08-23	$604.85	$580.72	$626.50
2026-08-24	$622.73	$601.62	$646.06
2026-08-25	$624.41	$601.35	$647.79
2026-08-26	$626.11	$605.04	$647.29
2026-08-27	$626.31	$603.47	$648.75
2026-08-28	$627.48	$605.54	$648.58

E-E-A-T

Fuentes de Datos

USDA WASDE NOAA ENSO/CFSv2 CFTC COT NASA NDVI KAMIS CME Group FAO

Metodologia: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Ultima actualizacion: 15/08/2026, 07:06 (UTC)