Signal Detail

قمح

اجابة AI السريعة

قمح (ZW) 30-day outlook: محايد. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Weather alert: HEAT_STRESS in us_wheat_belt threatens ZW supp. Confidence 72%. (As of 2026-08-14)

ZW
محايدADJUST
السعر الحالي
$689.00
+5.55%
مستوى الإجماع
78%
مستوى الثقة
72%
ثقة القرار72%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
١٥‏/٠٨‏/٢٠٢٦، ٠٧:٠٦ ص (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -9.49%

قمح لا يظهر حتى الآن أفضلية اتجاه واضحة.

حتى ترتفع الثقة أكثر، يبقى الانتظار والمراقبة الأنسب.

Summary

قراءة مبسطة

اقرأ الاتجاه والدليل والمخاطر أولاً ثم قرر كيف تنفذ.

قراءة سريعة

قمح لا يظهر حتى الآن أفضلية اتجاه واضحة. حتى ترتفع الثقة أكثر، يبقى الانتظار والمراقبة الأنسب.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
١٥‏/٠٨‏/٢٠٢٦، ٠٧:٠٦ ص (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -9.49%
Evidence basis
العرض
[Supply Crew / ZW] Weather alert: HEAT_STRESS in us_wheat_belt threatens ZW supply. Weather alert: HEAT_STRESS in france_beauce threatens ZW supply. Moisture deficit in black_sea: precip 4mm vs ET0 demand 34mm. Moisture deficit in france_beauce: precip 4mm vs ET0 demand 33mm. El Nino phase: favorable US growing conditions. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-9.5%), supply pressure easing. Seasonal: month 8 typically sees new supply arriving for ZW. 52w position 92%: high prices incentivizing production expansion. High volatility (36%): potential supply-chain disruption
الطلب
[Demand Crew / ZW] Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Price at 92.1th percentile of 52w range — elevated prices historically reduce discretionary consumption and incentivize substitution. Quant 7d: bearish (-9.5%), consistent with demand softness
الماكرو
[Macro Crew / ZW] Natural gas at 52w 4%: fertilizer costs low. HIGH volatility regime (36%): elevated uncertainty, wider ranges expected. Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bearish (-9.5%), macro alignment
لماذا هذا الحكم
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

لماذا قد يكون الانتظار أفضل
i

حتى ترتفع الثقة أكثر، يبقى الانتظار والمراقبة الأنسب.

ما الذي نتابعه بعد ذلك
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Event-wait / neutral regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
السيناريو الأساسي

قمح لا يظهر حتى الآن أفضلية اتجاه واضحة.

مراقبة المخاطر
لا توجد حالياً خلافات كبيرة.
ZW swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 8 active signals.
Chart

مخطط السوق

المخطط مرجع بصري فقط؛ أما القرار الحقيقي فيأتي من الأدلة و debate أدناه.

البيانات متأخرة. راجع الأدلة وبطاقة الأداء معاً قبل القرار.
Quant

Quant Forecast

قارن نطاقات 7D و14D و30D في البنية نفسها.

7d
$623.64
-9.49%
$602.41 ~ $647.00
14d
$627.48
-8.93%
$605.54 ~ $648.58
30d
$642.66
-6.73%
$620.00 ~ $664.22
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

هنا تؤكد المنظومة أو تعدل أو تعكس قاعدة quant الأساسية.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
محايد
Consensus
78%
Score
-0.269
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

في ظروف الأزمة تصبح المحاكاة طبقة قرار إضافية.

Run
swarm_20260718_211054_zw
Direction
هبوط
Confidence
92%

ZW swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 8 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (2개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for ZW

ZW
ZW
ZW
60%
Hit rate
AI Debate

إجماع AI متعدد

تحليل متقاطع من وكلاء AI مستقلين

حكم AI

هبوطي

الثقة

65%

إجماع

85%

Agents

12/12

توزيع الأصوات

صعودي
8%
محايد
7%
هبوطي
85%

العوامل الرئيسية

  • 1Price Induced Demand Destruction At 92pct Range
  • 2Chuseok Prebuy Largely Absorbed
  • 3Quant 7d Momentum Confirms Bearish
  • 4Elevated Price Demand Destruction
  • 5Broad Horizon Quant Weakness

المخاطر الرئيسية

  • !institutional/feed demand could surprise upside if substitution to corn/other grains is limited
  • !global import demand (esp. from price-sensitive buyers) may already be near floor, capping further downside
  • !Stronger Than Expected Import Tenders
  • !Supply Shock Triggered Stockpiling

ملخص تحليل الطاقم

Demandsonnet-4.6

가격이 52주 범위 92분위로 소비자·가공업체의 대체재 전환과 재량적 수요 파괴를 유발할 수준이며, 한국 추석 준비 수요는 이미 선구매(pre-buying)로 상당 부분 소진되어 향후 추가 매수 여력이 제한적이다. 퀀트 7일 모멘텀(-9.5%)도 수요 측 약세와 방향이 일치한다.

Demandgpt-5.4

The demand backdrop is bearish because the contract sits near the top of its 52-week range, increasing substitution and consumption-rationing pressure, while the Quant Engine projects declines across...

Logisticssonnet-4.6

Two of three crew signals are genuinely wheat-relevant and both bearish: US winter wheat harvest/export peak and Black Sea (Russia/Ukraine) export peak are active simultaneously in month 8, meaning...

Logisticsgpt-5.4

Concurrent U.S. winter-wheat harvest and Black Sea export peaks should increase nearby export availability and intensify competition, creating logistical pressure consistent with the Quant Engine's...

القواعد مقابل AIdisagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

أزل سلوك التسوق وأبق الصفحة مركزة على الأدلة والتحقق والتنفيذ عبر الرسم البياني.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-08-15$609.23$586.64$632.83
2026-08-16$608.02$586.36$631.69
2026-08-17$624.51$601.35$647.36
2026-08-18$624.79$602.07$648.23
2026-08-19$625.07$602.48$646.84
2026-08-20$623.86$601.36$645.11
2026-08-21$623.64$602.41$647.00
2026-08-22$604.70$581.78$626.90
2026-08-23$604.85$580.72$626.50
2026-08-24$622.73$601.62$646.06
2026-08-25$624.41$601.35$647.79
2026-08-26$626.11$605.04$647.29
2026-08-27$626.31$603.47$648.75
2026-08-28$627.48$605.54$648.58
E-E-A-T

مصادر البيانات

المنهجية: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

اخر تحديث:

CropCast v2.0 — محرك تنبؤات أسعار السلع بالذكاء الاصطناعي