Signal Detail

Sugar

AI Quick Answer

Sugar (SB) 30-day outlook: Bearish. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: 가격이 52주 밴드 상단(93.7pctile) 부근에서 수요 파괴 조짐이 보이고, 한국 추석 물량은 이미 사전 계약분이 대부분 커버돼 있어 스팟. Confidence 66%. (As of 2026-08-14)

SB
BearishADJUST
Current Price
$16.60
-1.31%
Consensus
69%
Confidence
66%
decision confidence66%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
08/15/2026, 07:06 AM (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -2.19%

Sugar currently leans bearish.

A defensive stance or patience for better pricing is cleaner than chasing.

Summary

Plain-Language Call

Read direction, evidence, and risk before deciding how to execute.

Quick read

Sugar currently leans bearish. A defensive stance or patience for better pricing is cleaner than chasing.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
08/15/2026, 07:06 AM (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -2.19%
Evidence basis
Demand (sonnet-4.6)
가격이 52주 밴드 상단(93.7pctile) 부근에서 수요 파괴 조짐이 보이고, 한국 추석 물량은 이미 사전 계약분이 대부분 커버돼 있어 스팟 신규 수요 유발 효과는 제한적. 7/14/30일 퀀트 추세가 모두 하락 정렬(-2.2%/-4.0%/-2.7%)인 점이 단발성 노이즈가 아닌 지속적 수요 둔화 신호로 해석됨.
Demand (gpt-5.4)
Demand conditions support a modest bearish view because prices near the top of their 52-week range should encourage substitution, inventory restraint, and consumption softness. The bearish 7-, 14-, and 30-day forecasts reinforce that pressure, although Korean holiday demand is unlikely to be a major driver of globally traded SB futures.
Sentiment (sonnet-4.6)
The bullish event cluster (7 events, severity 0.83) reads as backward-looking catalysts that already pushed price to the 94th percentile of its 52w range — the crowd has priced them in. What's left is a classic exhaustion setup: RSI at 79.9 with price near highs, and critically, the quant engine shows deteriorating momentum across all three horizons (-2.19%/-3.95%/-2.71%), meaning the tape is already rolling over even as headline sentiment stays 'positive'.
Why this call
i

Price Elevated 52w Range

Why waiting may be better
i

공급측 이슈(브라질 생산 차질 등)로 수요 약세가 가격에 반영 안 될 가능성

What to watch next
i

추석 성수기 실수요 서프라이즈로 저가 매수 유입 시 반등 리스크

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
demand
Bearish
details
demand
Bearish
details
sentiment
Bullish
details
sentiment
Bullish
details
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
stronger-than-expected global food-processing demand
policy-driven ethanol demand growth
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Base scenario

Sugar currently leans bearish.

Risk watch
stronger-than-expected global food-processing demand
policy-driven ethanol demand growth

Detailed narrative is currently available in the source-language data only.

SB swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 7 active signals.
Chart

Market Chart

The chart is visual reference only; the actual call comes from the evidence and debate below.

Delayed data. Combine this chart with evidence and scorecard context.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Compare 7D, 14D, and 30D ranges in the same structure.

7d
$16.24
-2.19%
$15.59 ~ $16.87
14d
$15.95
-3.95%
$15.32 ~ $16.57
30d
$16.15
-2.71%
$15.47 ~ $16.80
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

This is where the system confirms, adjusts, or overrides the quant base case.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
Bearish
Consensus
69%
Score
-0.573
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

In crisis conditions, simulation becomes an extra decision layer.

Run
swarm_20260812_211740_sb
Direction
Bearish
Confidence
68.6%

SB swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 7 active signals.

다수 지역 가뭄 (4개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for SB

SB
SB
SB
SB
83%
Hit rate
AI Debate

AI Multi-Model Consensus

Cross-validated analysis from independent AI agents

AI Verdict

Bearish

Confidence

61%

Agreement

92%

Agents

12/12

Vote Breakdown

Bullish
0%
Neutral
8%
Bearish
92%

Key Drivers

  • 1Price Elevated 52w Range
  • 2Chuseok Demand Mostly Prebought
  • 3Quant Trend Alignment Multi Horizon
  • 4price-induced demand destruction
  • 5bearish multi-horizon quant forecast

Key Risks

  • !공급측 이슈(브라질 생산 차질 등)로 수요 약세가 가격에 반영 안 될 가능성
  • !추석 성수기 실수요 서프라이즈로 저가 매수 유입 시 반등 리스크
  • !stronger-than-expected global food-processing demand
  • !policy-driven ethanol demand growth

Crew Analysis Summary

Demandsonnet-4.6

가격이 52주 밴드 상단(93.7pctile) 부근에서 수요 파괴 조짐이 보이고, 한국 추석 물량은 이미 사전 계약분이 대부분 커버돼 있어 스팟 신규 수요 유발 효과는 제한적. 7/14/30일 퀀트 추세가 모두 하락 정렬(-2.2%/-4.0%/-2.7%)인 점이 단발성 노이즈가 아닌 지속적 수요 둔화 신호로 해석됨.

Demandgpt-5.4

Demand conditions support a modest bearish view because prices near the top of their 52-week range should encourage substitution, inventory restraint, and consumption softness.

Sentimentsonnet-4.6

The bullish event cluster (7 events, severity 0.83) reads as backward-looking catalysts that already pushed price to the 94th percentile of its 52w range — the crowd has priced them in.

Sentimentgpt-5.4

SB appears vulnerable to a near-term pullback because RSI is deeply overbought at 79.9, price sits at the 94th percentile of its 52-week range, and the Quant Engine projects declines across all...

Rule-based vs AI Verdictdisagree
Execution

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Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-08-15$16.49$15.90$17.08
2026-08-16$16.54$15.92$17.13
2026-08-17$16.16$15.55$16.74
2026-08-18$16.22$15.57$16.86
2026-08-19$16.23$15.64$16.85
2026-08-20$16.22$15.63$16.83
2026-08-21$16.24$15.59$16.87
2026-08-22$16.62$16.04$17.26
2026-08-23$16.60$16.00$17.20
2026-08-24$16.14$15.53$16.77
2026-08-25$16.13$15.53$16.76
2026-08-26$16.06$15.48$16.68
2026-08-27$15.99$15.35$16.58
2026-08-28$15.95$15.32$16.57
E-E-A-T

Data Sources

Methodology: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Last updated:

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