Signal Detail

سكر

اجابة AI السريعة

سكر (SB) 30-day outlook: هبوط. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: El Nino: drought risk in tropical producing regions. Quant 7d. Confidence 66%. (As of 2026-08-14)

SB
هبوطADJUST
السعر الحالي
$16.60
-1.31%
مستوى الإجماع
69%
مستوى الثقة
66%
ثقة القرار66%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
١٥‏/٠٨‏/٢٠٢٦، ٠٧:٠٦ ص (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -2.19%

سكر يميل حالياً إلى الاتجاه الهابط.

بدلاً من المطاردة، الأفضل اتخاذ موقف دفاعي أو انتظار سعر أفضل.

Summary

قراءة مبسطة

اقرأ الاتجاه والدليل والمخاطر أولاً ثم قرر كيف تنفذ.

قراءة سريعة

سكر يميل حالياً إلى الاتجاه الهابط. بدلاً من المطاردة، الأفضل اتخاذ موقف دفاعي أو انتظار سعر أفضل.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
١٥‏/٠٨‏/٢٠٢٦، ٠٧:٠٦ ص (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bearish · -2.19%
Evidence basis
العرض
[Supply Crew / SB] El Nino: drought risk in tropical producing regions. Quant 7d forecast: bearish (-2.2%), supply pressure easing. 52w position 94%: high prices incentivizing production expansion
الطلب
[Demand Crew / SB] Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Price at 93.7th percentile of 52w range — elevated prices historically reduce discretionary consumption and incentivize substitution. Quant 7d: bearish (-2.2%), consistent with demand softness
الماكرو
[Macro Crew / SB] Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bearish (-2.2%), macro alignment
لماذا هذا الحكم
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

لماذا قد يكون الانتظار أفضل
i

بدلاً من المطاردة، الأفضل اتخاذ موقف دفاعي أو انتظار سعر أفضل.

ما الذي نتابعه بعد ذلك
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
السيناريو الأساسي

سكر يميل حالياً إلى الاتجاه الهابط.

مراقبة المخاطر
لا توجد حالياً خلافات كبيرة.
SB swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 7 active signals.
Chart

مخطط السوق

المخطط مرجع بصري فقط؛ أما القرار الحقيقي فيأتي من الأدلة و debate أدناه.

البيانات متأخرة. راجع الأدلة وبطاقة الأداء معاً قبل القرار.
Quant

Quant Forecast

قارن نطاقات 7D و14D و30D في البنية نفسها.

7d
$16.24
-2.19%
$15.59 ~ $16.87
14d
$15.95
-3.95%
$15.32 ~ $16.57
30d
$16.15
-2.71%
$15.47 ~ $16.80
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

هنا تؤكد المنظومة أو تعدل أو تعكس قاعدة quant الأساسية.

Decision
ADJUST
Direction
هبوط
Consensus
69%
Score
-0.573
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

في ظروف الأزمة تصبح المحاكاة طبقة قرار إضافية.

Run
swarm_20260812_211740_sb
Direction
هبوط
Confidence
68.6%

SB swarm simulation under high: double_down bias with 7 active signals.

다수 지역 가뭄 (4개)폭염 경고ENSO EL_NINO
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for SB

SB
SB
SB
SB
83%
Hit rate
AI Debate

إجماع AI متعدد

تحليل متقاطع من وكلاء AI مستقلين

حكم AI

هبوطي

الثقة

61%

إجماع

92%

Agents

12/12

توزيع الأصوات

صعودي
0%
محايد
8%
هبوطي
92%

العوامل الرئيسية

  • 1Price Elevated 52w Range
  • 2Chuseok Demand Mostly Prebought
  • 3Quant Trend Alignment Multi Horizon
  • 4price-induced demand destruction
  • 5bearish multi-horizon quant forecast

المخاطر الرئيسية

  • !공급측 이슈(브라질 생산 차질 등)로 수요 약세가 가격에 반영 안 될 가능성
  • !추석 성수기 실수요 서프라이즈로 저가 매수 유입 시 반등 리스크
  • !stronger-than-expected global food-processing demand
  • !policy-driven ethanol demand growth

ملخص تحليل الطاقم

Demandsonnet-4.6

가격이 52주 밴드 상단(93.7pctile) 부근에서 수요 파괴 조짐이 보이고, 한국 추석 물량은 이미 사전 계약분이 대부분 커버돼 있어 스팟 신규 수요 유발 효과는 제한적. 7/14/30일 퀀트 추세가 모두 하락 정렬(-2.2%/-4.0%/-2.7%)인 점이 단발성 노이즈가 아닌 지속적 수요 둔화 신호로 해석됨.

Demandgpt-5.4

Demand conditions support a modest bearish view because prices near the top of their 52-week range should encourage substitution, inventory restraint, and consumption softness.

Sentimentsonnet-4.6

The bullish event cluster (7 events, severity 0.83) reads as backward-looking catalysts that already pushed price to the 94th percentile of its 52w range — the crowd has priced them in.

Sentimentgpt-5.4

SB appears vulnerable to a near-term pullback because RSI is deeply overbought at 79.9, price sits at the 94th percentile of its 52-week range, and the Quant Engine projects declines across all...

القواعد مقابل AIdisagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

أزل سلوك التسوق وأبق الصفحة مركزة على الأدلة والتحقق والتنفيذ عبر الرسم البياني.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-08-15$16.49$15.90$17.08
2026-08-16$16.54$15.92$17.13
2026-08-17$16.16$15.55$16.74
2026-08-18$16.22$15.57$16.86
2026-08-19$16.23$15.64$16.85
2026-08-20$16.22$15.63$16.83
2026-08-21$16.24$15.59$16.87
2026-08-22$16.62$16.04$17.26
2026-08-23$16.60$16.00$17.20
2026-08-24$16.14$15.53$16.77
2026-08-25$16.13$15.53$16.76
2026-08-26$16.06$15.48$16.68
2026-08-27$15.99$15.35$16.58
2026-08-28$15.95$15.32$16.57
E-E-A-T

مصادر البيانات

المنهجية: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

اخر تحديث:

CropCast v2.0 — محرك تنبؤات أسعار السلع بالذكاء الاصطناعي