Signal Detail

Cerdo

Respuesta Rapida IA

Cerdo (HE) 30-day outlook: Alcista. 6/6 of 4 Crews agree. Key evidence: Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+1.7%), supply may be tightening.. Confidence 79%. (As of 2026-08-14)

HE
AlcistaCONFIRM
Precio Actual
$81.75
-14.38%
Consenso
67%
Confianza
79%
Confianza de la decisión79%
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
15/08/2026, 07:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 1.68%

Cerdo muestra un sesgo alcista por ahora.

Revisa la evidencia y después sigue el escenario alcista de forma selectiva.

Summary

Lectura en lenguaje claro

Lee dirección, evidencia y riesgo antes de decidir cómo ejecutar.

Lectura rápida

Cerdo muestra un sesgo alcista por ahora. Revisa la evidencia y después sigue el escenario alcista de forma selectiva.

Judgment basis
Adopted moderator evidence is unavailable, so this section currently shows supporting crew evidence instead.
Main report time
-
Market snapshot time
15/08/2026, 07:06 (UTC)
Quant basis
7D bullish · 1.68%
Evidence basis
Oferta
[Supply Crew / HE] Quant 7d forecast: bullish (+1.7%), supply may be tightening. 52w position 12%: low prices likely reducing production incentives. High volatility (54%): potential supply-chain disruption
Demanda
[Demand Crew / HE] Korean seasonal demand: Chuseok prep (추석 준비). Price at 12.4th percentile of 52w range — below-average pricing supports downstream demand recovery. Cheap beef draws consumers away from pork, pressuring hog demand. High corn feed costs pressure hog producer margins. Quant 7d: bullish (+1.7%), consistent with demand strength
Macro
[Macro Crew / HE] EXTREME volatility regime (54%): market dislocation, mean reversion likely. RSI 5 in extreme vol: strong contrarian buy signal. Broad commodity trend bullish: 8/11 above SMA200 (73%). Broad momentum: 7 golden crosses across commodities. EXTREME crisis level: flight-to-real-assets, commodity hoarding likely. Quant 7d: bullish (+1.7%), macro alignment
Por qué esta lectura
i

Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.

Por qué puede ser mejor esperar
i

Even on a bullish call, remaining risks mean waiting for confirmation can still be cleaner than chasing.

Qué vigilar después
i

Watch the next data refresh and debate update.

Need more context?
i

When evidence is thin or event uncertainty is high, the next intelligence refresh and swarm scenario become the extra validation layer.

Agent views
Primary evidence is still being structured. Use the base scenario and confidence first.
Market regime

Directional regime

Event context
Watch the next data refresh and debate update.
Disagreement diagnosis
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Moderator log

Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.

Adopted evidence
Deferred evidence
Crews were mostly aligned without major conflict.
Escenario base

Cerdo muestra un sesgo alcista por ahora.

Riesgo
No hay grandes desacuerdos ahora mismo.
HE swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 14 active signals.
Chart

Gráfico de Mercado

El gráfico es solo referencia visual; la decisión real sale de la evidencia y del debate inferior.

Datos con retraso. Combina el gráfico con evidencia y scorecard.
Quant

Quant Forecast

Compara 7D, 14D y 30D con la misma estructura.

7d
$83.12
+1.68%
$79.54 ~ $86.80
14d
$79.77
-2.42%
$76.15 ~ $83.34
30d
$89.85
+9.91%
$86.23 ~ $93.55
TA

Technical Analysis

Debate

4-Crew Debate

Aquí el sistema confirma, ajusta o revierte la tesis base del quant.

Decision
CONFIRM
Direction
Alcista
Consensus
67%
Score
+1.109
Swarm

Recent Swarm Scenario

En crisis, la simulación agrega una capa extra de decisión.

Run
swarm_20260815_070424_he
Direction
Alcista
Confidence
92%

HE swarm simulation under extreme: double_up bias with 14 active signals.

가뭄 경고 (2개)다수 지역 홍수 (2개)폭염 경고
Track Record

Prediction History

Recent prediction track record for HE

HE
HE
HE
HE
57%
Hit rate
AI Debate

Consenso Multi-IA

Análisis cruzado de agentes de IA independientes

Veredicto IA

Alcista

Confianza

51%

Acuerdo

79%

Agents

12/12

Votación

Alcista
79%
Neutral
21%
Bajista
0%

Factores clave

  • 1RSI 5.3 is an outlier reading that warrants skepticism on data integrity before treating it as a contrarian bullish trigger
  • 2Zero-weighted news sentiment provides no independent confirmation of positioning or narrative shift
  • 3Conflicting 7d/14d/30d price action signals no dominant momentum regime for flow-based contrarian read
  • 4extreme RSI oversold reading
  • 5positive 7-day Quant forecast

Riesgos clave

  • !If RSI is accurate, an oversold bounce could still materialize quickly and a neutral stance would miss early momentum
  • !Thin CFTC COT/options skew data for HE (lean hogs) limits ability to confirm true speculative extremes
  • !oversold conditions can persist during strong liquidation
  • !missing COT, options-skew, and meaningful news-flow data

Resumen por Equipo

Sentimentsonnet-4.6

The RSI reading of 5.3 is extreme enough to question data quality rather than trust as a clean oversold bounce signal — genuine RSI readings that low are rare and often reflect illiquid/thin trading...

Sentimentgpt-5.4

RSI at 5.3 signals an unusually stretched selloff and supports a tactical mean-reversion bounce, consistent with the Quant Engine's positive 7-day forecast.

Macrosonnet-4.6

Feed-cost tailwinds are ambiguous but the broader commodity complex is genuinely firm (USD softness plus a still-accommodative real-rate backdrop keeps hard-asset demand supported), and a 30d +9.9%...

Macrogpt-5.4

The 7-day and 30-day forecasts, broad commodity strength, and deeply oversold conditions support a rebound in HE.

Reglas vs IAdisagree
Execution

Evidence → Validation → TradingView

Quita el comportamiento de compra y deja la página enfocada en evidencia, scorecard y ejecución por gráfico.

Path

30-Day Forecast Path

DateForecastLowHigh
2026-08-15$97.24$93.54$100.96
2026-08-16$96.34$92.95$99.72
2026-08-17$86.39$82.71$90.56
2026-08-18$85.75$82.36$89.34
2026-08-19$84.87$81.29$88.70
2026-08-20$83.90$80.29$87.50
2026-08-21$83.12$79.54$86.80
2026-08-22$91.62$87.90$94.99
2026-08-23$91.02$87.32$94.71
2026-08-24$81.41$78.15$85.29
2026-08-25$81.15$77.60$84.92
2026-08-26$80.67$77.09$84.08
2026-08-27$80.12$76.54$83.70
2026-08-28$79.77$76.15$83.34
E-E-A-T

Fuentes de Datos

Metodologia: Quant Engine (Prophet) + 4 Specialist Crews + Pattern Matcher → Debate Moderator. Learn more

Ultima actualizacion:

CropCast v2.0 — Motor de Predicción de Precios con IA